U.S. Drought Portal

www.drought.gov

 

 

 
 
A summary of drought conditions based on the 
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 
Drought Assessment Webinar of December 4th, 2012     
 

Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) and the 

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
 
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Precipitation Climatology

Climatology indicates that the ACF Basin could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain in December, with a bit more possible in January.  

 

  
 

2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage

  

The orange line indicates the basin composite and conservation storage forecast and displays a slight downward trend.  The decline in the composite forecast is anticipated to decrease a bit in mid-December compared to previous forecasts.  The Corps is still in drought operations in the ACF basin. 
Corps ACF Composite Plot
To access the Corps' bi-weekly Drought Update for the ACF, click here.
 

Multivariate ENSO Index

      


   
Klaus Wolter's Multivariate ESNO Index indicates that we continue to be in ENSO-neutral conditions. 
 
 

There was a rapid expansion of D0 (abnormally dry) and D1 (moderate drought) throughout the Southeast U.S. in the past week.

     
 

The 7-day average streamflow for the ACF Basin is well below normal.

 

           
 

Flint River at Bainbridge 28-day hydrograph

 

           

The Flint River basin continues to have historical low flows. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)

 
 

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast

 

The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast indicates that all 
streamflows are likely to be below normal. This graphic was produced by the Southeast River Forecast Center (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/).

 
 

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

 

              

    

The NOAA/Climate Prediction Center expects some drought persistence and some drought improvement for Georgia and Alabama in the next three months (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html).
 

Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
  • Drought conditions have spread througout the entire ACF Basin with drought in the central part of the basin categorized as extreme to exceptional
  • Similarly, streamflows are below average throughout the entire basin, though inflows to West Point are normal because of releases from Lake Lanier
  • Ground water levels in southern Georgia remain at historic low levels
  • Basin inflows are about 1600 cfs below outflows, so reservoir levels have continued to decline, with Lake Lanier approaching the threshold for conservation zone 4
  • The 5-day outlook is for less than 1 inch of precipitation in the northern half of the basin and no rain in the southern half
  • A total of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected for the basin in each month of December and January
  • Streamflow forecasts at 1 and 3 months all suggest that drought conditions will persist or worsen
 

Acknowledgments and Resources
  • David Zierden, FSU
  • Tony Gotvald, USGS
  • Bailey Crane, USACE
  • Jeff Dobur, SERFC

 

General drought information

 http://www.drought.gov 

 http://www.drought.unl.edu

 

General climate and El Niño information

 http://agroclimate.org/climate 

 

Streamflow monitoring

 http://waterwatch.usgs.gov 

 

Groundwater monitoring

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov  

 

The complete set of briefing slides from this briefing can be found at:http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars    

Additional information can be found at the Southeast River Forecast Center's Water Resources Outlook:  

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/?n=wro  

 

 
 
 
 

 

 

Event Date: 
Thu, Dec 6 2012 (All day)
Region: 
ACF River Basin