Forecasting a Crab Fishery Using Real-Time Freshwater Flow Data

A four-year study of the blue crabs in the ACE Basin National Estuarine Research Reserve in South Carolina during the 2008-11 drought found that crabs decreased in the low flow Combahee River due to increased parasites (Hematodinium sp.) but increased in the high flow Edisto River due to decreased predation by freshwater predators (alligators).

Since drought can have both positive and negative effects on blue crabs, there is considerable interest in understanding how future variation in river discharge will impact commercial blue crab landings.

This project for the Coastal Carolinas Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) used historical and forecasted Edisto River discharge levels as input for a spatially explicit, individual-based blue crab population model parameterized for conditions in the ACE Basin National Estuarine Research Reserve (https://scbcrabs.blogspot.com/).