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Forecast Rodeo Archive

Dry Out West and Hurricane Harvey in Texas

Another warm and dry couple of weeks over most of the competition region for the period ending on September 4th.  However, the southeast area and especially Texas was cool and wet.  This was largely due to Hurricane Harvey, which dumped upwards of 50 inches of rain in the Houston area at the end of August. Several of our solvers (StillLearning and Lupoa13) did well on the temperature forecast beating the benchmarks in both the week 3-4 and week 5-6 forecasts. Precipitation scores were markedly lower, no doubt affected by the large pulse of Hurricane Harvey moisture in Texas.  Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict in the sub-seasonal time scale spanned by this competition. Regardless, the competition field is narrowing on the precipitation scores.  Stay tuned!

Hot Temps and Hot Scores!

For the two week period ending on July 10, much of the West experienced above average temperatures and to go along with it, we recorded the highest forecast scores to date in the competition! Congratulations to team bgzimmerman, scoring above 0.84 on both the weeks 3&4 and weeks 5&6 temperature forecasts for this period. StillLearing was close behind with a weeks 3&4 forecast that scored 0.82. Meanwhile, on the precipitation side, Salient continues to lead the pack at both outlooks. Stay tuned for more scores and updates!

Hot and Dry

That was the story for the two week period from May 30 to June 12 across the vast majority of the western United States. In particular, the Dakotas, Montana, and Utah saw some of the most notable temperature anomalies. Northern California and parts of Texas as well as regions of New Mexico were the few places to buck the overall precipitation trend and record above average rainfall. Looking forward, the next two week window includes the official start of summer and it appears there will be plenty of hot weather to go along with it. Did anyone see this coming a few weeks back? We'll answer that question with the next scoring update.

What’s more difficult than trying to predict weather over complex topography at up to a month lead time?

Doing it with up to 6 weeks lead time.

The first weeks 5&6 scores of the competition are in! For much of the western United States the period of May 16-29 was characterized by cooler than average temperatures with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and portions of California. Kudos to the solvers who were able to forecast this general pattern at up to 6 weeks lead time.

Stay tuned for more scores as we head into the heart of the summer and see who will be able to forecast the next big heat wave!

Welcome to the Forecast Rodeo Leader Board!

Weeks 3&4 scores are in from the forecasts submitted on April 18 for the period of May 2-15. Temperature anomalies for these two weeks were characterized by warmer than average conditions across much of the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana.  A majority of the competition domain was drier than average with a few exceptions, notably the Pacific Northwest and the region around southeastern Colorado. The next score update is anticipated to be made on June 1 and will include the weeks 5&6 scores from submission #1 and weeks 3&4 scores from submission #2. Stay tuned!

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