Document Archive

Southern Plains Under El Niño Watch In Oklahoma and Texas, drought peaked in early May. Only a few small areas in the Texas Panhandle and northeast Oklahoma still show Abnormally Dry Conditions. Major concerns continue for streamflows and reservoir levels in New Mexico. Another snow drought could cause devastating impacts to the state. There is a 70% to 75% chance that El Niño will develop and persist through the winter; however, it is expected to be weak.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter and spring impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.

NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.   

Rainfall Brings Much-Needed Drought Relief to Missouri, Kansas, and Iowa Recent rainfall has brought much-needed relief to the hardest-hit drought areas in MO, KS, and IA, however, at the same time, drought conditions worsened in ND. Although rainfall has improved conditions, drought recovery may be slow in areas that experienced extreme or exceptional drought this summer - particularly where surface water and groundwater was limited. Winter is typically the driest season, making autumn a key season for recovery from hydrologic drought.

Current Drought Conditions 

Over the course of the 2018 Water Year (Oct. 2017 - Sept. 2018), drought crept back into California-Nevada. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions have not changed over the last 2 months except for expansion of severe drought (D3) at the Oregon and Utah borders. As of Sept. 25, ~48% of California-Nevada was in moderate to extreme drought and ~43% was abnormally dry. Current forecasts show most drought areas persisting into the early winter with above-normal temperatures likely.

Conditions Favor El Niño this Winter: Significant drought expected to lessen in parts of the Southwest and persist in others.

From October 2017 to September 2018, the Southwestern U.S. experienced below-normal to record-low precipitation. Long-term precipitation deficits and record-high temperatures have contributed to very low streamflows and reservoir levels. Conditions favor the development of El Niño this winter, but significant drought is expected to persist in most of Utah and Colorado.

WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2017-SEPTEMBER 2018)

Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter and spring impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.

NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.  

Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.

NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports. 

Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.

NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports. 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for Alaska and Northwestern Canada for June – August 2018; outlook for October – December 2018.  Dated September 2018. 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Southeast Region for June – August 2018.  Dated September 2018.

Above-average temperatures were recorded over most of the Southeast. Mean temperatures were in the top five warmest at 27 long-term stations. Maximum temperatures were generally near normal, but minimum temperatures were 1-4 F above normal due to high humidity and cloud cover. Precipitation values ranged from 50% of normal in South Carolina to over 200% of normal in northern Virginia. Several long-term stations observed their wettest summer on record.