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Weekly Look Ahead

June 17, 2021 (Updated Every Thursday)

5–7 Day Outlook

As of June 16, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center is forecasting two areas of significant precipitation through the evening of June 21. One area covers much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, and could be highly beneficial to southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois if it occurs.

Large rain amounts are also forecast from the central Gulf Coast to Georgia, northwest Florida, and western South Carolina, in association with a tropical disturbance being monitored by the National Hurricane Center as of the afternoon of June 16.

6–10 Day Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for June 22–26 favors above-normal precipitation in the western Great Lakes, lower Missouri River Valley, and the Southeast (excluding South Florida), while below-normal precipitation is favored in the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, and North Dakota. During this period, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored in the western Great Plains and West, while below-normal temperatures are more likely from the Great Lakes to the central and eastern Gulf Coast. In Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored in the north from June 22–26, below-normal precipitation is favored in east-central Alaska, while above-normal precipitation is favored elsewhere in the state.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for June 15, 2021, written by Curtis Riganti (National Drought Mitigation Center) and Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center).

Data and Maps

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Featured Outlooks and Forecasts

Drought Outlooks & Forecasts

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.

Taking the U.S. Drought Monitor as a starting point, the Climate Prediction Center's Objective Drought Tendency Forecast is an integrated product that combines information from the flash drought development tool and subseasonal SPI3 forecasts. The forecast synthesizes information through a decision-tree process to determine whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next 30 days, on a rolling basis. This tool is used to inform the official forecasts. Learn more.

Drought Outlook

The color with the hex code #9b634a identifies:
Drought persists
The color with the hex code #ded2bc identifies:
Drought remains but improves
The color with the hex code #b2ad69 identifies:
Drought removal likely
The color with the hex code #ffde63 identifies:
Drought development likely

Drought Outlook

The color with the hex code #9b634a identifies:
Drought persists
The color with the hex code #ded2bc identifies:
Drought remains but improves
The color with the hex code #b2ad69 identifies:
Drought removal likely
The color with the hex code #ffde63 identifies:
Drought development likely

Drought Outlook

The color with the hex code #8c645a identifies:
Drought persists
The color with the hex code #e1beb4 identifies:
Drought remains but improves
The color with the hex code #1eb41e identifies:
Drought removal likely
The color with the hex code #ffe878 identifies:
Drought development likely
The color with the hex code #c00000 identifies:
Drought intensification likely

Evaporative Demand and Flash Drought

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.

Created by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this subseasonal tool predicts the areas susceptible for flash drought development. The real-time product started running in April 2018 and has been used to support CPC’s Monthly Drought Outlook efforts. The tool, which is used to inform official forecasts, calculates the rapid change index (RCI) using 7-day mean evapotranspiration anomalies. RCI is the accumulated magnitude of moisture stress changes occurring over multiple weeks, and drought is likely to develop when RCI is negative. In the legend below, a higher number of non-exceedances indicates a greater potential for flash drought development. Learn more.

Drought Categories

The color with the hex code #ffff00 identifies:
ED0
The color with the hex code #ffd37f identifies:
ED1
The color with the hex code #ffaa00 identifies:
ED2
The color with the hex code #e60000 identifies:
ED3
The color with the hex code #730000 identifies:
ED4

Wetness Categories

The color with the hex code #8ccdef identifies:
EW0
The color with the hex code #00bfff identifies:
EW1
The color with the hex code #1d90ff identifies:
EW2
The color with the hex code #4169e1 identifies:
EW3
The color with the hex code #0000ff identifies:
EW4

Number of Non-Exceedances (Range: 0-30)

The color with the hex code #ffffff identifies:
≤ 2
The color with the hex code #ffff99 identifies:
2 - 5
The color with the hex code #ffcc33 identifies:
5 - 10
The color with the hex code #ff6633 identifies:
10 - 15
The color with the hex code #cc3300 identifies:
15 - 20
The color with the hex code #990000 identifies:
20 - 25
The color with the hex code #663333 identifies:
≥ 25
Experimental

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).