Outlooks & Forecasts
5–7 Day Outlook
As of June 16, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center is forecasting two areas of significant precipitation through the evening of June 21. One area covers much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, and could be highly beneficial to southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois if it occurs.
Large rain amounts are also forecast from the central Gulf Coast to Georgia, northwest Florida, and western South Carolina, in association with a tropical disturbance being monitored by the National Hurricane Center as of the afternoon of June 16.
6–10 Day Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for June 22–26 favors above-normal precipitation in the western Great Lakes, lower Missouri River Valley, and the Southeast (excluding South Florida), while below-normal precipitation is favored in the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, and North Dakota. During this period, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored in the western Great Plains and West, while below-normal temperatures are more likely from the Great Lakes to the central and eastern Gulf Coast. In Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored in the north from June 22–26, below-normal precipitation is favored in east-central Alaska, while above-normal precipitation is favored elsewhere in the state.
This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for June 15, 2021, written by Curtis Riganti (National Drought Mitigation Center) and Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center).
Drought Outlooks & Forecasts
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.
Taking the U.S. Drought Monitor as a starting point, the Climate Prediction Center's Objective Drought Tendency Forecast is an integrated product that combines information from the flash drought development tool and subseasonal SPI3 forecasts. The forecast synthesizes information through a decision-tree process to determine whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next 30 days, on a rolling basis. This tool is used to inform the official forecasts. Learn more.
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Evaporative Demand and Flash Drought
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
Created by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this subseasonal tool predicts the areas susceptible for flash drought development. The real-time product started running in April 2018 and has been used to support CPC’s Monthly Drought Outlook efforts. The tool, which is used to inform official forecasts, calculates the rapid change index (RCI) using 7-day mean evapotranspiration anomalies. RCI is the accumulated magnitude of moisture stress changes occurring over multiple weeks, and drought is likely to develop when RCI is negative. In the legend below, a higher number of non-exceedances indicates a greater potential for flash drought development. Learn more.
Drought Categories
Wetness Categories
Number of Non-Exceedances (Range: 0-30)
The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
The Climate Explorer offers graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables for every county in the contiguous United States, helping people asse
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).