Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Weekly Look Ahead

August 7, 2025 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

From August 7 –11, an area of showers and thunderstorms off the Southeastern Coast may develop into a tropical system according to the National Hurricane Center, but this is far from certain. Generally 1 to locally over 3 inches of rain are forecast for coastal sections of South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida, while similar amounts are forecast along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and much of the Florida Peninsula. Between 1–3 inches are anticipated from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes Region, and amounts in the lower part of that range are forecast in scattered parts of the central and northern Plains. Moderate amounts (up to an inch) should fall in many areas from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northern Intermountain West, portions of the central Plains, and areas near the Southeastern and Gulf Coasts. Light precipitation is possible in parts of the central and eastern Four Corners States, the central Ohio Valley, the southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and upper New England. Other areas are expecting little if any precipitation. Meanwhile, near or slightly below-normal temperatures are expected in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the northern High Plains. In most other locations, temperatures should average a little above normal. In  parts of the interior West and the Northeast,  highs will average 6–12 °F above normal.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day precipitation outlook (valid August 12-16, 2025) featurse significant uncertainty. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceed 40% across most of Alaska—and nowhere else. There are, however, fairly broad areas with slightly enhanced chances (33% to 40%) for wetter-than-normal wetter; specifically, the remainder of Alaska, the northern tier of the Lower 48, the Sonoran Desert, the eastern Great Plains, the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, the Great Lakes Region, the upper Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and inland sections of the Northeast and New England. Drier-than-normal conditions are slightly favored in the Great Basin and adjacent sections of the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. There is more certainty in the temperature forecast, with above-normal temperatures favored across a large part of the Lower 48 and Hawaii. The best odds (over 70%) cover the Northeast and New England while the central West Coast, parts of the Four Corners States, the eastern Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the coastal Southeast, and the Florida Peninsula have 60%–70% percent chances for unusually high temperatures. 

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for August 5, 2025, written by Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) and Lindsay Johnson (National Drought Mitigation Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...
2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Official NOAA Heat Hazard Outlooks

Hazard Outlook for Days 3–7
Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

Official NOAA Fire Weather Outlook

Forecast Risk of Fire Weather

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).