Outlooks & Forecasts
5–7 Day Outlook
A storm system that brought heavy rainfall to eastern parts of the lower 48 states March 22–23 will continue to move northeastward and into the Great Lakes by Thursday, March 24. By March 26, another fast-moving low pressure system is expected to sweep in behind the Great Lakes system to help push it out to sea by the weekend. Following the passage of these storm systems, colder air is likely across northeastern and north-central parts of the U.S., starting on March 26, with maximum temperature anomalies expected to be anywhere from 10°F to 20°F below normal across parts of the Midwest. These cold temperatures will shift eastward toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through March 29. Across the western U.S. high pressure is expected to dominate, favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures through Monday, March 28. Maximum temperatures are predicted to be on the order of 15°F to 20°F above-normal, and greater, with the warmer temperatures shifting from the West Coast to the Great Plains and into the Southeast March 24-29, before beginning to moderate. On March 29, another storm system is predicted to move into the West Coast ,bringing an opportunity for much-needed precipitation across portions of California.
6–10 Day Outlook
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook (valid March 29 to April 2, 2022) favors near- to above-normal temperatures across much of the western and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and the Gulf Coast. Below-normal temperatures are favored for the north-central and northeastern CONUS, behind strong low pressure exiting the East Coast near the start of the period.
Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, as a storm system is expected to intensify and move eastward across U.S. during the period. Behind this storm system and farther to its south, below-normal precipitation is likely across parts of the western CONUS and southern Texas, respectively.
This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for March 22, 2022, written by Adam Hartman (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) and Richard Heim (NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information).
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 24 hours. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches. Learn more.
Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 7 days. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches. Learn more.
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 0 - 0.01 | #ffffff |
| 0.01 - 0.1 | #7fff00 |
| 0.1 - 0.25 | #00cd00 |
| 0.25 - 0.5 | #008b00 |
| 0.5 - 0.75 | #104e8b |
| 0.75 - 1 | #1e90ff |
| 1 - 1.25 | #00b2ee |
| 1.25 - 1.5 | #00eeee |
| 1.5 - 1.75 | #8968cd |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2 | #912cee |
| 2 - 2.5 | #8b008b |
| 2.5 - 3 | #8b0000 |
| 3 - 4 | #cd0000 |
| 4 - 5 | #ee4000 |
| 5 - 7 | #ff7f00 |
| 7 - 10 | #cd8500 |
| 10 - 15 | #ffd700 |
| 15 - 20 | #ffff00 |
| 20 - | #ffaeb9 |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 0 - 0.01 | #ffffff |
| 0.01 - 0.1 | #7fff00 |
| 0.1 - 0.25 | #00cd00 |
| 0.25 - 0.5 | #008b00 |
| 0.5 - 0.75 | #104e8b |
| 0.75 - 1 | #1e90ff |
| 1 - 1.25 | #00b2ee |
| 1.25 - 1.5 | #00eeee |
| 1.5 - 1.75 | #8968cd |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2 | #912cee |
| 2 - 2.5 | #8b008b |
| 2.5 - 3 | #8b0000 |
| 3 - 4 | #cd0000 |
| 4 - 5 | #ee4000 |
| 5 - 7 | #ff7f00 |
| 7 - 10 | #cd8500 |
| 10 - 15 | #ffd700 |
| 15 - 20 | #ffff00 |
| 20 - | #ffaeb9 |
6–10 Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6–10 day, 8–14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks. This outlook depicts whether there is a greater probability (percent chance) for above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during the next 6 to 10 days. Learn more.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature outlooks for the U.S., including 6–10 day, 8–14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks. This outlook depicts whether there is a greater probability (percent chance) for above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during the next 6 to 10 days. Learn more.
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #f0d493 |
| 40% - 50% | #d8a750 |
| 50% - 60% | #bb6d33 |
| 60% - 70% | #9b5031 |
| 70% - 80% | #934639 |
| 80% - 90% | #804000 |
| 90% - 100% | #4f2f2f |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #b3d9ab |
| 40% - 50% | #94cd7e |
| 50% - 60% | #48ae38 |
| 60% - 70% | #3a7b5f |
| 70% - 80% | #008e40 |
| 80% - 90% | #28553d |
| 90% - 100% | #285517 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near-Normal Conditions | #a2a2a2 |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #a0c0df |
| 40% - 50% | #77b5e2 |
| 50% - 60% | #389fdb |
| 60% - 70% | #005ca1 |
| 70% - 80% | #2f406f |
| 80% - 90% | #221852 |
| 90% - 100% | #1c1342 |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #e7b168 |
| 40% - 50% | #e38b4a |
| 50% - 60% | #dc562f |
| 60% - 70% | #c72e28 |
| 70% - 80% | #cc3047 |
| 80% - 90% | #8a2f38 |
| 90% - 100% | #622228 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near-Normal Conditions | #a2a2a2 |
U.S. Drought Outlooks
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Drought persists | #9b634a |
| Drought remains but improves | #ded2bc |
| Drought removal likely | #b2ad69 |
| Drought development likely | #ffde63 |
| No drought present | #ffffff |
Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Forecast
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 14 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 | #730000 |
| D3 | #E60000 |
| D2 | #FFAA00 |
| D1 | #FCD37F |
| D0 | #FFFF00 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near Normal | #ffffff |
| W0 | #AAFF55 |
| W1 | #01FFFF |
| W2 | #00AAFF |
| W3 | #0000FF |
| W4 | #0000AA |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 | #730000 |
| D3 | #E60000 |
| D2 | #FFAA00 |
| D1 | #FCD37F |
| D0 | #FFFF00 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near Normal | #ffffff |
| W0 | #AAFF55 |
| W1 | #01FFFF |
| W2 | #00AAFF |
| W3 | #0000FF |
| W4 | #0000AA |
The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
The Climate Explorer offers graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables for every county in the contiguous United States, helping people asse
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).