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Weekly Look Ahead

May 15, 2025 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

This week (May 13–17, 2025), heavy rain is forecast for the Dakotas/Minnesota, with late season mountain snow for the northern Rockies. Going into Thursday, the heavier rainfall will reach eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, with the potential for 1-2 inch rainfall totals. Very warm weather will continue across the Upper Midwest for the middle of the week. The anomalous warmth will then shift eastward to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions to close out the week, and much of the East Coast Friday into Saturday ahead of the cold front. Very hot conditions are expected across southern Texas for the entire forecast period, with highs exceeding 100 degrees near the Rio Grande. In contrast, chilly conditions are likely for the Intermountain West and northern Rockies, with highs running 5–15 degrees below average.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid May 18–22, 2025) favors above-normal precipitation across most of the U.S., with below-normal precipitation favored in portions of the West Coast states and the Florida Peninsula. 

Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii, from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and in parts of California, Nevada, and southern Alaska.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for May 13, 2025, written by Rocky Bilotta (NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information) Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...
2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Official NOAA Heat Hazard Outlooks

Hazard Outlook for Days 3–7
Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

Official NOAA Fire Weather Outlook

Forecast Risk of Fire Weather

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).