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Weekly Look Ahead

June 13, 2024 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

During the next five days (June 13–17, 2024), tropical moisture is expected to interact with mid-level low pressure across southern Florida, resulting in heavy rain. Flood watches are currently in effect, and 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected before precipitation tapers off. Tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may also push into the central Gulf Coast region, bringing 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain to the Louisiana Bayou and southern Mississippi. Farther north, thunderstorms along a frontal boundary are expected to drop 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rain on parts of the northeastern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate precipitation is expected in other parts of the northern Great Plains, upper and middle Mississippi Valley, western Great Lakes region, eastern New England, northern Florida Peninsula, southern lower Mississippi Valley, and higher elevations of the northern Rockies and Cascades. Meanwhile, the summer’s first extended period of excessive heat is forecast to develop in the central Great Plains, expanding eastward across the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the mid-Atlantic region, and the Northeast. Highs well into the 90s should be widespread by the end of the period, and warm nighttime lows are expected, providing little relief.

6–10 Day

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook (valid June 18–22, 2024) favors above-normal temperatures from the southern Rockies and most of the Plains eastward to the Atlantic Ocean, with greatest odds (over 80%) across the interior Northeast and New England. There is a good chance that excessive heat will continue through at least part of the period across central and northern parts of the U.S. from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Farther west, below-normal temperatures are favored in many areas, but only slightly. Below-normal precipitation is favored across the mid-Atlantic region, the Carolinas, the upper Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, as well as southeastern Alaska. However, odds favor above-normal precipitation over a larger area encompassing the Gulf Coast region, the northern and southern Great Plains, the High Plains, the Great Lakes Region, the southern Rockies, the northern tier of the contiguous U.S. from the northern Rockies to the Pacific Coast, northeastern Alaska, and Hawaii. The best chances for above-normal rainfall (50%–70%) are in southern Texas.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for June 11, 2024, written by Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) and Curtis Riganti (National Drought Mitigation Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Official NOAA Rapid Onset Drought Outlook

2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

Official NOAA Excessive Heat Hazard Outlook

Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).