# Outlooks & Forecasts

### 1–7 Day

Over the next 5–7 days, it is anticipated that the wet pattern will continue over much of the southern Plains and into the South, Southeast, and Midwest. The active pattern along the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest will also continue. Greatest precipitation is anticipated over the southern Plains, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, northern Mississippi, southern Georgia, western South Carolina, and the Pacific Northwest coast, where 3 or more inches of rain are anticipated. Much of the West will remain dry.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal over much of the West with departures of 10–12 degrees below normal over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Much of the eastern half of the country will be warmer than normal, while areas of the Midwest and South are anticipated to be 10–12 degrees below normal for the week. Hurricane Rafael has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is projected to track westward. It may not make landfall until the middle of next week but could impact the dryness over the South and southern Plains depending on its path.

### 6–10 Day

The Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlooks show that the probability of above-normal temperatures will be greatest over the eastern half of the United States, especially over the Midwest and into the Southeast.

Chances of cooler-than-normal temperatures are greatest over the West, in particular over California and Nevada.

Most of the country has a good chance of recording above-normal precipitation during the period, especially over the Pacific Northwest.

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for November 5, 2024, written by Brian Fuchs and Tsegaye Tadesse (National Drought Mitigation Center).

#### Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

##### Drought Is Predicted To...

###### Drought Persists

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought conditions will persist.

###### Drought Improves

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that existing drought conditions will improve (but not be removed).

###### Drought Is Removed

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will be removed.

###### Drought Develops

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will develop.

###### No Drought Present

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is no drought, and is drought development is not predicted.

##### Drought Is Predicted To...

###### Drought Persists

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought conditions will persist.

###### Drought Improves

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that existing drought conditions will improve (but not be removed).

###### Drought Is Removed

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will be removed.

###### Drought Develops

During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will develop.

###### No Drought Present

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is no drought, and is drought development is not predicted.

The Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will develop, remain, improve, or be removed in the next calendar month.

The Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will develop, remain, improve, or be removed in the next 3 months or so.

The Climate Prediction Center issues its Monthly Drought Outlooks on the last day of the calendar month.

The Climate Prediction Center issues its Seasonal Drought Outlooks on the third Thursday of each calendar month. Sometimes, the map is adjusted on the last day of the month to maintain consistency with the Monthly Drought Outlook.

**Snow drought **is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.

Periods of drought can lead to inadequate **water supply**, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.

Drought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring **agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

During drought conditions, fuels for **wildfire**, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.

**Snow drought **is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.

Periods of drought can lead to inadequate **water supply**, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.

Drought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring **agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

During drought conditions, fuels for **wildfire**, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.

#### Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

##### Predicted Inches of Precipitation

###### Less than 0.01 inch

###### 0.01 to 0.1 inch

###### 0.1 to 0.25 inch

###### 0.25 to 0.5 inch

###### 0.5 to 0.75 inch

###### 0.75 to 1 inch

###### 1 to 1.25 inches

###### 1.25 to 1.5 inches

###### 1.5 to 1.75 inches

###### 1.75 to 2 inches

###### 1.5 to 2 inches

###### 2 to 2.5 inches

###### 2.5 to 3 inches

###### 3 to 4 inches

###### 4 to 5 inches

###### 5 to 7 inches

###### 7 to 10 inches

###### 10 to 15 inches

###### 15 to 20 inches

###### More than 20 inches

##### Predicted Inches of Precipitation

###### Less than 0.01 inch

###### 0.01 to 0.1 inch

###### 0.1 to 0.25 inch

###### 0.25 to 0.5 inch

###### 0.5 to 0.75 inch

###### 0.75 to 1 inch

###### 1 to 1.25 inches

###### 1.25 to 1.5 inches

###### 1.5 to 1.75 inches

###### 1.75 to 2 inches

###### 1.5 to 2 inches

###### 2 to 2.5 inches

###### 2.5 to 3 inches

###### 3 to 4 inches

###### 4 to 5 inches

###### 5 to 7 inches

###### 7 to 10 inches

###### 10 to 15 inches

###### 15 to 20 inches

###### More than 20 inches

This map shows the amount of liquid precipitation (in inches) expected to fall over the next 1 day, according to the National Weather Service.

This map shows the amount of liquid precipitation (in inches) expected to fall over the next 7 days, according to the National Weather Service.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast maps on Drought.gov are updated once a day and are valid from 7 a.m. Eastern that day.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast maps on Drought.gov are updated once a day and are valid from 7 a.m. Eastern that day.

Drought is defined as the lack of **precipitation** over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.

**Flash drought **is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.

Drought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring **agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

Drought is defined as the lack of **precipitation** over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.

**Flash drought **is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

#### Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

##### Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### Near-Normal

Odds favor **near-normal precipitation** during this period.

##### Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### Near-Normal

Odds favor **near-normal precipitation** during this period.

##### Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

##### Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% of Near Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of near-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% of Near Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of near-normal precipitation during this period.

##### Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal precipitation during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal precipitation during this period.

##### Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation

###### 33%–40% of Near Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of near-normal precipitation during this period.

###### 40%–50% of Near Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of near-normal precipitation during this period.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal precipitation 6 to 10 days in the future.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal precipitation 8 to 14 days in the future.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (green hues) or below-normal (brown hues) precipitation over the next calendar month. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (green hues) or below-normal (brown hues) precipitation over the next three months. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 6–10 day precipitation outlook daily.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 8–14 day outlooks daily.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their monthly precipitation outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month and again on the last day of each calendar month.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their seasonal precipitation outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month.

Drought is defined as the lack of **precipitation** over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.

**Flash drought **is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.

Periods of drought can lead to inadequate **water supply**, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

**precipitation** over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.

**Flash drought **is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.

**water supply**, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

**precipitation** over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.

**Snow drought **is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.

**water supply**, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

**Snow drought **is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.

**water supply**, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

During drought conditions, fuels for **wildfire**, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.

#### Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

##### Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### Near-Normal

Odds favor **near-normal temperatures** during this period.

##### Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### Near-Normal

Odds favor **near-normal temperatures** during this period.

##### Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

##### Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% of Near Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of near-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% of Near Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of near-normal temperatures during this period.

##### Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Below Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of below-normal temperatures during this period.

##### Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **50%–60% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **60%–70% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **70%–80% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal

There is an **80%–90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

###### >90% Chance of Above Normal

There is a **>90% chance** of above-normal temperatures during this period.

##### Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures

###### 33%–40% of Near Normal

There is an **33%–40% chance** of near-normal temperatures during this period.

###### 40%–50% of Near Normal

There is an **40%–50% chance** of near-normal temperatures during this period.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures 6 to 10 days in the future.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperature 8 to 14 days in the future.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (red hues) or below-normal (blue hues) temperatures over the next calendar month. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures.

This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (red hues) or below-normal (blue hues) temperatures over the next three months. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 6–10 day outlooks daily.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 8–14 day outlooks daily.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their monthly temperature outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month and again on the last day of each calendar month.

The Climate Prediction Center updates their seasonal temperature outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month.

Air **temperature** can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.

**Flash drought **is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.

Air **temperature** can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.

**Flash drought **is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.

Air **temperature** can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.

**Snow drought **is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

**temperature** can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.

**Snow drought **is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

#### Official NOAA Rapid Onset Drought Outlook

##### 2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

###### Risk of Rapid Onset Drought

National Weather Service forecasters predict that rapid drought development (also known as "flash drought") may occur in the coming 2–4 weeks.

This National Weather Service hazard outlook map shows the risk of **rapid onset drought** (flash drought) development during the next 2–4 weeks.

Forecasters use initial conditions, like existing dryness (e.g., soil moisture), temperature, and precipitation outlooks, to assess the risk of rapid drought development. Rapid onset drought** **risk areas (*yellow*) can give users, such as farmers making decisions about planting and supplemental irrigation, an early warning of the potential for hot and dry conditions.

National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters issue rapid onset drought (ROD) risk areas on Thursdays, with the potential for updates on the following Mondays, from April 1–October 31.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center hazards outlook is issued between 2–5 p.m. ET, and this Drought.gov map updates at **7 p.m. ET**.

**temperature** can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.

**Flash drought **is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.

**agricultural drought** typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.

Extreme weather events can interact or cascade—where one disaster event triggers or changes the probability of another event. For example, drought conditions can increase the probability of large-scale wildfires, and droughts are often accompanied by extreme heat. By including drought in **multi-hazard planning**, a community can consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before a disaster.

The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.

The Climate Explorer offers graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables for every county in the contiguous United States, helping people asse

Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.

The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).

## Challenges with Predicting Drought

### Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

### Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

### Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

### ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).