Outlooks & Forecasts
1–7 Day
Since Tuesday morning, Hurricane Ian made landfall across Florida and an upper-level trough moved across the Northeast, while another Pacific trough moved into the Pacific Northwest. Dry high pressure dominated most of the rest of the contiguous U.S. For the period September 29–October 4, the Pacific trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern to central Rockies, giving these regions 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain with locally up to 2 inches. The remnants of Ian will be drawn over the Southeast, spreading a large area of 1 to 5 inches of rain across the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic states, with locally over 10 inches in parts of Florida. Ian’s rain will stretch into the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern New England, where up to an inch of rain is expected. Little to no precipitation is forecast for the rest of the contiguous U.S. Temperatures are predicted to be warmer than normal in the West to Great Plains and cooler than normal in the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic states.
6–10 Day
According to the Climate Prediction Center's outlooks for October 4–12, odds favor above-normal precipitation across most of Alaska and in the Four Corners states, with below-normal precipitation over the Alaska panhandle, northern portions of the West, and much of the Plains to East Coast. The West and Alaska panhandle are expected to get wetter as the period progresses.
Odds favor warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of Alaska and most of the contiguous U.S., except the period may begin cooler than normal along the East Coast.
This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for September 27, 2022, written by Richard Heim (NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information) and Tsegaye Tadesse (National Drought Mitigation Center).
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 24 hours. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches. Learn more.
Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 7 days. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches. Learn more.
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 0 - 0.01 | #ffffff |
| 0.01 - 0.1 | #7fff00 |
| 0.1 - 0.25 | #00cd00 |
| 0.25 - 0.5 | #008b00 |
| 0.5 - 0.75 | #104e8b |
| 0.75 - 1 | #1e90ff |
| 1 - 1.25 | #00b2ee |
| 1.25 - 1.5 | #00eeee |
| 1.5 - 1.75 | #8968cd |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2 | #912cee |
| 2 - 2.5 | #8b008b |
| 2.5 - 3 | #8b0000 |
| 3 - 4 | #cd0000 |
| 4 - 5 | #ee4000 |
| 5 - 7 | #ff7f00 |
| 7 - 10 | #cd8500 |
| 10 - 15 | #ffd700 |
| 15 - 20 | #ffff00 |
| 20 - | #ffaeb9 |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 0 - 0.01 | #ffffff |
| 0.01 - 0.1 | #7fff00 |
| 0.1 - 0.25 | #00cd00 |
| 0.25 - 0.5 | #008b00 |
| 0.5 - 0.75 | #104e8b |
| 0.75 - 1 | #1e90ff |
| 1 - 1.25 | #00b2ee |
| 1.25 - 1.5 | #00eeee |
| 1.5 - 1.75 | #8968cd |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2 | #912cee |
| 2 - 2.5 | #8b008b |
| 2.5 - 3 | #8b0000 |
| 3 - 4 | #cd0000 |
| 4 - 5 | #ee4000 |
| 5 - 7 | #ff7f00 |
| 7 - 10 | #cd8500 |
| 10 - 15 | #ffd700 |
| 15 - 20 | #ffff00 |
| 20 - | #ffaeb9 |
6–10 Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6–10 day, 8–14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks. This outlook depicts whether there is a greater probability (percent chance) for above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during the next 6 to 10 days. Learn more.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature outlooks for the U.S., including 6–10 day, 8–14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks. This outlook depicts whether there is a greater probability (percent chance) for above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during the next 6 to 10 days. Learn more.
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #f0d493 |
| 40% - 50% | #d8a750 |
| 50% - 60% | #bb6d33 |
| 60% - 70% | #9b5031 |
| 70% - 80% | #934639 |
| 80% - 90% | #804000 |
| 90% - 100% | #4f2f2f |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #b3d9ab |
| 40% - 50% | #94cd7e |
| 50% - 60% | #48ae38 |
| 60% - 70% | #3a7b5f |
| 70% - 80% | #008e40 |
| 80% - 90% | #28553d |
| 90% - 100% | #285517 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near-Normal Conditions | #a2a2a2 |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #a0c0df |
| 40% - 50% | #77b5e2 |
| 50% - 60% | #389fdb |
| 60% - 70% | #005ca1 |
| 70% - 80% | #2f406f |
| 80% - 90% | #221852 |
| 90% - 100% | #1c1342 |
| Range | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| 33% - 40% | #e7b168 |
| 40% - 50% | #e38b4a |
| 50% - 60% | #dc562f |
| 60% - 70% | #c72e28 |
| 70% - 80% | #cc3047 |
| 80% - 90% | #8a2f38 |
| 90% - 100% | #622228 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near-Normal Conditions | #a2a2a2 |
U.S. Drought Outlooks
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Drought persists | #9b634a |
| Drought remains but improves | #ded2bc |
| Drought removal likely | #b2ad69 |
| Drought development likely | #ffde63 |
| No drought present | #ffffff |
Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Forecast
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 14 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 | #730000 |
| D3 | #E60000 |
| D2 | #FFAA00 |
| D1 | #FCD37F |
| D0 | #FFFF00 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near Normal | #ffffff |
| W0 | #AAFF55 |
| W1 | #01FFFF |
| W2 | #00AAFF |
| W3 | #0000FF |
| W4 | #0000AA |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 | #730000 |
| D3 | #E60000 |
| D2 | #FFAA00 |
| D1 | #FCD37F |
| D0 | #FFFF00 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near Normal | #ffffff |
| W0 | #AAFF55 |
| W1 | #01FFFF |
| W2 | #00AAFF |
| W3 | #0000FF |
| W4 | #0000AA |
The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
The Climate Explorer offers graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables for every county in the contiguous United States, helping people asse
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).