Outlooks & Forecasts
5–7 Day Outlook
The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center's forecast for the next 5 days (April 8–12) forecasts heavy rain and the potential for thunderstorms for the central U.S. As the storm system pushes eastward, chances increase for heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest, south-central, and southeastern U.S. In the Northwest, a storm moving in from the Pacific will bring colder than normal temperatures with snow likely falling in the Cascades and Northern Rockies and rain at lower elevations. In the Southwest and southern High Plains, warm, dry weather combined with gusty winds is expected to persist, leading to the potential continuation of dangerous fire weather conditions.
6–10 Day Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlook (valid April 12 through April 16) favors above-normal temperatures across the West, Northeast, and Southeast, with the largest probabilities centered over the Great Basin and New England. Below-normal temperatures are most likely across the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Alaska.
The greatest probabilities of above-normal precipitation are across the Southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic states.
This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary from April 8, 2021, written by Deborah Bathke (National Drought Mitigation Center) and Brad Rippey (U.S. Department of Agriculture).
Drought Outlooks & Forecasts
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.
Taking the U.S. Drought Monitor as a starting point, the Climate Prediction Center's Objective Drought Tendency Forecast is an integrated product that combines information from the flash drought development tool and subseasonal SPI3 forecasts. The forecast synthesizes information through a decision-tree process to determine whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next 30 days, on a rolling basis. This tool is used to inform the official forecasts. Learn more.
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Evaporative Demand and Flash Drought
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
Created by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this subseasonal tool predicts the areas susceptible for flash drought development. The real-time product started running in April 2018 and has been used to support CPC’s Monthly Drought Outlook efforts. The tool, which is used to inform official forecasts, calculates the rapid change index (RCI) using 7-day mean evapotranspiration anomalies. RCI is the accumulated magnitude of moisture stress changes occurring over multiple weeks, and drought is likely to develop when RCI is negative. In the legend below, a higher number of non-exceedances indicates a greater potential for flash drought development. Learn more.
Drought Categories
Wetness Categories
Number of Non-Exceedances (Range: 0-30)
The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts.
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).