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Weekly Look Ahead

March 23, 2023 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

Through the afternoon of Monday, March 27, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center is forecasting mainly dry weather in the northern Great Plains, Minnesota, and northwest Wisconsin—as well as southern Nevada, southeast California, Utah, and New Mexico (except for some higher-elevation areas). Mostly dry weather is also forecast in most of the Florida Peninsula, where short-term moderate and severe drought has intensified recently. Heavier precipitation amounts are forecast for parts of western Oregon and Washington and far northwest California. Heavy rainfall, locally up to or exceeding 3 inches, is forecast along and south of the I-44 and I-70 corridors from far northeast Oklahoma into Ohio. Widespread rain amounts of at least 1.5 inches are likely in the northern halves of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi, and in the southwest half of Tennessee. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.5–0.75 inches are likely in much of the Northeast, with localized higher amounts.

6–10 Day

For March 28–April 1, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s outlook strongly favors above-normal precipitation in most of the West, especially central and southern California. Above-normal precipitation is also favored in Tennessee and portions of the surrounding states, most of the Great Plains (except for the area stretching from southeast New Mexico to western Kansas), the Upper Midwest, most of the Northeast, and most of Alaska. Below-normal precipitation is favored in the southern half of the Florida Panhandle, as well as far southeast Alaska. The temperature outlook strongly favors colder-than-normal weather across most of the West, especially California and Nevada, with most of the northern contiguous U.S. also leaning toward colder-than-normal temperatures. The entire Gulf Coast region is more likely to have warmer-than-normal temperatures. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored in northeast Alaska, while colder-than-normal weather is more likely in southeast Alaska.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for March 21, 2023, written by Curtis Riganti (National Drought Mitigation Center) and Ahira Sanchez-Lugo (NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color
0 - 0.01 #ffffff
0.01 - 0.1 #7fff00
0.1 - 0.25 #00cd00
0.25 - 0.5 #008b00
0.5 - 0.75 #104e8b
0.75 - 1 #1e90ff
1 - 1.25 #00b2ee
1.25 - 1.5 #00eeee
1.5 - 1.75 #8968cd
Range Map Hex Color
1.75 - 2 #912cee
2 - 2.5 #8b008b
2.5 - 3 #8b0000
3 - 4 #cd0000
4 - 5 #ee4000
5 - 7 #ff7f00
7 - 10 #cd8500
10 - 15 #ffd700
15 - 20 #ffff00
20 - #ffaeb9
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color
0 - 0.01 #ffffff
0.01 - 0.1 #7fff00
0.1 - 0.25 #00cd00
0.25 - 0.5 #008b00
0.5 - 0.75 #104e8b
0.75 - 1 #1e90ff
1 - 1.25 #00b2ee
1.25 - 1.5 #00eeee
1.5 - 1.75 #8968cd
Range Map Hex Color
1.75 - 2 #912cee
2 - 2.5 #8b008b
2.5 - 3 #8b0000
3 - 4 #cd0000
4 - 5 #ee4000
5 - 7 #ff7f00
7 - 10 #cd8500
10 - 15 #ffd700
15 - 20 #ffff00
20 - #ffaeb9

Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 24 hours. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches. Learn more.

Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 7 days. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches. Learn more.

6–10 Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

Probability (Percent Chance) of Below-Normal Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color
100% - 90% #4f2f2f
90% - 80% #804000
80% - 70% #934639
70% - 60% #9b5031
60% - 50% #bb6d33
50% - 40% #d8a750
40% - 33% #f0d493
Probability (Percent Chance) of Above-Normal Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color
33% - 40% #b3d9ab
40% - 50% #94cd7e
50% - 60% #48ae38
60% - 70% #3a7b5f
70% - 80% #008e40
80% - 90% #28553d
90% - 100% #285517
Value Map Hex Color
Near-Normal Conditions #a2a2a2
Probability (Percent Chance) of Below-Normal Temperature
Range Map Hex Color
100% - 90% #1c1342
90% - 80% #221852
80% - 70% #2f406f
70% - 60% #005ca1
60% - 50% #389fdb
50% - 40% #77b5e2
40% - 33% #a0c0df
Probability (Percent Chance) of Above-Normal Temperature
Range Map Hex Color
33% - 40% #e7b168
40% - 50% #e38b4a
50% - 60% #dc562f
60% - 70% #c72e28
70% - 80% #cc3047
80% - 90% #8a2f38
90% - 100% #622228
Value Map Hex Color
Near-Normal Conditions #a2a2a2

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6–10 day, 8–14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks. This outlook depicts whether there is a greater probability (percent chance) for above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during the next 6 to 10 days. Learn more.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature outlooks for the U.S., including 6–10 day, 8–14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks. This outlook depicts whether there is a greater probability (percent chance) for above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during the next 6 to 10 days. Learn more.

U.S. Drought Outlooks

Drought Outlook
Value Map Hex Color
Drought persists #9b634a
Drought remains but improves #ded2bc
Drought removal likely #b2ad69
Drought development likely #ffde63
No drought present #ffffff

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Forecast

Dry Conditions
Value Map Hex Color
D4 #730000
D3 #E60000
D2 #FFAA00
D1 #FCD37F
D0 #FFFF00
Wet Conditions
Value Map Hex Color
Near Normal #ffffff
W0 #AAFF55
W1 #01FFFF
W2 #00AAFF
W3 #0000FF
W4 #0000AA
Dry Conditions
Value Map Hex Color
D4 #730000
D3 #E60000
D2 #FFAA00
D1 #FCD37F
D0 #FFFF00
Wet Conditions
Value Map Hex Color
Near Normal #ffffff
W0 #AAFF55
W1 #01FFFF
W2 #00AAFF
W3 #0000FF
W4 #0000AA

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 14 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.

Experimental

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).