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Outlooks & Forecasts

Drought in your area? Report Impacts
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    • Weekly Look Ahead

    December 7, 2023 (Updated Every Thursday)

    1–5 Day

    The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center's 7-day forecast calls for moderate-to-heavy precipitation accumulations ranging from 2 to 5+ inches (liquid) across western portions of Washington and Oregon as well as northwestern California. Meanwhile, 1 to 2+ inch accumulations (liquid) are expected in areas of eastern Washington and Oregon, Idaho Panhandle, and northwestern Montana. In the Intermountain West, accumulations around an inch are expected in areas of the northern Great Basin, and the Rockies (central and northern). In the eastern tier of the contiguous U.S., accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with the heaviest totals anticipated in western North Carolina. 

    6–10 Day

    The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlook calls for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon, as well as in the Northern Plains, New England, and South Florida. Conversely, temperatures are expected to be below normal across most of the Gulf Coast region, Texas, and eastern New Mexico. 

    Below-normal precipitation is expected across most of the contiguous U.S. except for areas of Texas, Florida, and upper New England.

     

    This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for December 5, 2023, written by David Simeral (Western Regional Climate Center) and Tsegaye Tadesse (National Drought Mitigation Center).

    Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

    Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

    Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

    1-Day Forecast 7-Day Forecast

    Predicted Inches of Precipitation
    Range Map Hex Color
    0 - 0.01 #ffffff
    0.01 - 0.1 #7fff00
    0.1 - 0.25 #00cd00
    0.25 - 0.5 #008b00
    0.5 - 0.75 #104e8b
    0.75 - 1 #1e90ff
    1 - 1.25 #00b2ee
    1.25 - 1.5 #00eeee
    1.5 - 1.75 #8968cd
    Range Map Hex Color
    1.75 - 2 #912cee
    2 - 2.5 #8b008b
    2.5 - 3 #8b0000
    3 - 4 #cd0000
    4 - 5 #ee4000
    5 - 7 #ff7f00
    7 - 10 #cd8500
    10 - 15 #ffd700
    15 - 20 #ffff00
    20 - #ffaeb9
    Predicted Inches of Precipitation
    Range Map Hex Color
    0 - 0.01 #ffffff
    0.01 - 0.1 #7fff00
    0.1 - 0.25 #00cd00
    0.25 - 0.5 #008b00
    0.5 - 0.75 #104e8b
    0.75 - 1 #1e90ff
    1 - 1.25 #00b2ee
    1.25 - 1.5 #00eeee
    1.5 - 1.75 #8968cd
    Range Map Hex Color
    1.75 - 2 #912cee
    2 - 2.5 #8b008b
    2.5 - 3 #8b0000
    3 - 4 #cd0000
    4 - 5 #ee4000
    5 - 7 #ff7f00
    7 - 10 #cd8500
    10 - 15 #ffd700
    15 - 20 #ffff00
    20 - #ffaeb9

    Data Valid: 12/08/23
    Data Valid: 12/08/23
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    6–10 Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

    Precipitation Temperature

    Probability (Percent Chance) of Below-Normal Precipitation
    Range Map Hex Color Description
    100% - 90% #4f2f2f >90% Chance of Below Normal There is a >90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
    90% - 80% #804000 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
    80% - 70% #934639 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
    70% - 60% #9b5031 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
    60% - 50% #bb6d33 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
    50% - 40% #d8a750 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
    40% - 33% #f0d493 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
    Probability (Percent Chance) of Above-Normal Precipitation
    Range Map Hex Color Description
    33% - 40% #b3d9ab 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
    40% - 50% #94cd7e 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
    50% - 60% #48ae38 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
    60% - 70% #3a7b5f 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
    70% - 80% #008e40 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
    80% - 90% #28553d 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
    90% - 100% #285517 >90% Chance of Above Normal There is a >90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    Near-Normal Conditions #a2a2a2 Near-Normal Odds favor near-normal precipitation during this period.
    Probability (Percent Chance) of Below-Normal Temperature
    Range Map Hex Color Description
    100% - 90% #1c1342 >90% Chance of Below Normal There is a >90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
    90% - 80% #221852 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
    80% - 70% #2f406f 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
    70% - 60% #005ca1 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
    60% - 50% #389fdb 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
    50% - 40% #77b5e2 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
    40% - 33% #a0c0df 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
    Probability (Percent Chance) of Above-Normal Temperature
    Range Map Hex Color Description
    33% - 40% #e7b168 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
    40% - 50% #e38b4a 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
    50% - 60% #dc562f 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
    60% - 70% #c72e28 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
    70% - 80% #cc3047 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
    80% - 90% #8a2f38 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
    90% - 100% #622228 >90% Chance of Above Normal There is a >90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    Near-Normal Conditions #a2a2a2 Near-Normal Odds favor near-normal temperatures during this period.

    Data Valid: 12/08/23
    Data Valid: 12/08/23
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    U.S. Drought Outlooks

    Monthly Seasonal

    Drought Is Predicted To...
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    Persist #9b634a Drought Persists During this time period, drought is forecast to persist.
    Improve #ded2bc Drought Improves During this time period, drought is forecast to improve.
    End #b2ad69 Drought Is Removed During this time period, drought removal is forecast.
    Develop #ffde63 Drought Develops During this time period, drought development is forecast.
    N/A #ffffff No Drought Present
    Drought Is Predicted To...
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    Persist #9b634a Drought Persists During this time period, drought is forecast to persist.
    Improve #ded2bc Drought Improves During this time period, drought is forecast to improve.
    End #b2ad69 Drought Is Removed During this time period, drought removal is forecast.
    Develop #ffde63 Drought Develops During this time period, drought development is forecast.
    N/A #ffffff No Drought Present

    Data Valid: 11/30/23
    Data Valid: 11/30/23
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    Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Forecast

    2-Week Forecast 4-Week Forecast

    Drought Conditions
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    ED4 #730000 Exceptional Drought (98th–100th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 98% to 100% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED3 #E60000 Extreme Drought (95th–98th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 95% to 98% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED2 #FFAA00 Severe Drought (90th–95th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 90% to 95% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED1 #FCD37F Moderate Drought (80th–90th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 80% to 90% of previous values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED0 #FFFF00 Abnormally Dry (70th–80th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 70% to 80% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    Wet Conditions
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    EW0 #AAFF55 Abnormally Wet (20th–30th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 20% to 30% of historical values (i.e., only 20%–30% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW1 #01FFFF Moderate Wet (10th–20th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 10% to 20% of historical values (i.e., only 10%–20% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW2 #00AAFF Severe Wet (5th–10th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 5% to 10% of historical values (i.e., only 5%–10% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW3 #0000FF Extreme Wet (2nd–5th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 2% to 5% of historical values (i.e., only 2%–5% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW4 #0000AA Exceptional Wet (0–2nd Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 0% to 2% of historical values (i.e., less than 2% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    Drought Conditions
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    ED4 #730000 Exceptional Drought (98th–100th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 98% to 100% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED3 #E60000 Extreme Drought (95th–98th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 95% to 98% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED2 #FFAA00 Severe Drought (90th–95th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 90% to 95% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED1 #FCD37F Moderate Drought (80th–90th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 80% to 90% of previous values. Learn more about these categories.
    ED0 #FFFF00 Abnormally Dry (70th–80th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 70% to 80% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
    Wet Conditions
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    EW0 #AAFF55 Abnormally Wet (20th–30th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 20% to 30% of historical values (i.e., only 20%–30% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW1 #01FFFF Moderate Wet (10th–20th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 10% to 20% of historical values (i.e., only 10%–20% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW2 #00AAFF Severe Wet (5th–10th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 5% to 10% of historical values (i.e., only 5%–10% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW3 #0000FF Extreme Wet (2nd–5th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 2% to 5% of historical values (i.e., only 2%–5% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
    EW4 #0000AA Exceptional Wet (0–2nd Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 0% to 2% of historical values (i.e., less than 2% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.

    Data Valid: 12/08/23
    Data Valid: 12/08/23
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    Experimental
    Experimental
    Learn more about these data

    Data and Map Gallery

    A selection of tools to help predict changes in temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and more.

    Example monthly drought outlook

    U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook

    The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.

    Period of Record
    Forecasts
    File Format
    images
    pdf
    Average daily max temperature map of Houston, TX

    The Climate Explorer

    The Climate Explorer offers graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables for every county in the contiguous United States, helping people asse

    Period of Record
    Historical Data, Forecasts
    File Format
    images
    csv
    IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts example map

    IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

    Period of Record
    1997 - Present
    File Format
    images
    pdf
    geotiff
    kml
    other
    Example map of precipitation percent of normal needed to end drought conditions

    Drought Termination and Amelioration

    NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.

    Period of Record
    Current Conditions, Forecasts
    File Format
    images
    text (ascii)
    csv
    json
    xml
    Representative map of a 6-10 day temperature outlook for the U.S.

    CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

    The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.

    Period of Record
    1991–2020
    File Format
    images
    shapefile
    kml
    CPC average soil moisture outlook map for the contiguous U.S.

    CPC Soil Moisture Outlooks - Monthly and Seasonal

    The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).

    Period of Record
    Forecasts
    File Format
    images
    View More Data & Maps
    Dark clouds from a thunderstorm above an open field

    Challenges with Predicting Drought

    Pressure Systems

    High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

    Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

    In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

    Interconnected Variables

    Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

    ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

    Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).

    Outlook and Forecasting Resources

    Web Resources