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Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook with Rapid Onset Drought

Associated Agencies

NOAA / National Weather Service / National Centers for Environmental Prediction / Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Hazards Outlook is released every weekday and targets the Day 8–14 (Week 2) forecast period for potential hazardous conditions related to temperature, precipitation, wind, snow, and Rapid Onset Drought (ROD). The forecast is mainly represented in probabilities—slight risk (20%–40%), moderate risk (40%–60%) and high risk (60%)—with the exclusion of a few variables (e.g., Rapid Onset Drought, frozen precipitation, and flooding), which are denoted in categorical format without associated probabilities. The National Weather Service releases a composite map in addition to the separate probabilistic maps, showing any categorical variables, as well as highlighted regions drawn as a moderate risk (40% probability) on any of the temperature, precipitation, and wind probabilistic maps.

In May 2022, CPC began issuing a Rapid Onset Drought risk product within the Day 8–14 U.S. Hazards Outlook. This product highlights areas where rapid drought development (sometimes known as “flash drought”) may occur in the coming 2–4 weeks as depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Forecasters use initial conditions, such antecedent dryness (e.g., soil moisture), and skillful temperature and precipitation outlooks during the next 2 weeks to communicate the risk of rapidly developing drought. The Rapid Onset Drought product became operational in May 2024.

Rapid Onset Drought risk areas give end users, particularly farmers making decisions about planting and supplemental irrigation, an early warning of the potential for hot and dry conditions. This product supplements CPC’s Monthly Drought Outlook and is an important step toward comprehensive flash drought monitoring and prediction. 

The Day 8–14 U.S. Hazards Outlook contains human-drawn delineations of where conditions are expected to have the potential of posing a hazard to life or property. National Weather Service forecasters use set criteria for designating a hazard area, but also apply a subjective decision factor. A cold snap in the winter or a heatwave in the summer are likely threats to life and property, while a cool period in July is not.

The Day 8–14 U.S. Hazards Outlook is released daily, Monday through Friday, before 5 p.m. ET. However, Rapid Onset Drought risk hazards are only released on Thursdays between April 1–October 31, with potential updates on the following Monday. Excessive Heat hazards are issued between May–September.

Interactive Map

2-4 Week Hazard Outlook
Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

How to

How do I use the site?

  • Use the checkboxes above the interactive map to select between a composite day 8–14 map and a probabilistic dat 8–14 map, as well as hazard types: temperature, precipitation, snow, wind, and rapid onset drought.
  • Click the colored regions on the interactive map to view more information about each hazard.
  • Users can also view a static map image of the Day 8–14 U.S. Hazards Outlook. Just select "Day 8–14" to view the composite map, or select one of the experimental probabilistic outlooks: Temperature Hazards, Precipitation Hazards, Wind Hazards, or Snow Hazards.
  • Below these maps, users can view a detailed summary of the current U.S. Hazards Outlook.


U.S. Day 8–14 (Week 2) Hazards Outlook: View probabilistic and composite hazards outlooks, download data, and view detailed summary of the outlook.

U.S. Hazards Archive: View past probabilistic and composite Day 8–14 U.S. Hazard Outlook maps from October 2008 to the present.

Web Services for CPC Weather Hazards: View web services information for the CPC Day 3–7 and Day 8–14 Hazard Outlooks, including hazard criteria and data downloads.