The National Weather Service Central Region developed 2021 Fall Hazard Outlooks in coordination with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS); U.S. Department of Agriculture; High Plains Regional Climate Center; and National Interagency Fire Center's Geographic Area Coordination Centers. This outlook highlights the various Fall hazards that could occur and potential impacts across the Western U.S.
As of July 13, 2021, 89% of the West is in drought and 25% is in Exceptional (D4) Drought. Both are U.S. Drought Monitor records. Much of the West was drought free just over 14 months ago, but drought conditions began developing around May 2020. A poor summer 2020 monsoon season followed by snow drought in winter 2020-21 worsened conditions in California and the Southwest. Record-shattering temperatures and dry conditions in the Northwest in early summer 2021 caused conditions to rapidly deteriorate in a region that was already facing multi-year precipitation deficits.
As of June 22, 2021, 90% of the Southwest and California is in drought, with 40% of this region in Exceptional Drought (D4), the highest level. Twelve months prior, most of the West was drought-free, but drought conditions began developing around May 2020. High temperatures and very low rainfall totals through spring and summer of 2020 set new records across the Southwest, and the combination of extremely low soil moisture leading into winter and snow drought through winter means that run-off in the spring of 2021 has been very low.
Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for March - May 2021. Dated June 2021.
The National Weather Service Central Region developed 2021 Summer Hazard Outlooks in coordination with the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and National Water Center; U.S. Department of Agriculture; National Weather Service River Forecast Centers; and National Interagency Fire Centers' Geographic Area Coordination Centers. This outlook highlights the various Summer hazards that could occur and potential impacts across the Western U.S.
As of May 18, 2021, 93% of the Southwest and California was in drought, with 38% of this region in Exceptional (D4) Drought, the highest level. Twelve months prior, most of the West was drought-free, but drought conditions began developing around May 2020. High temperatures and very low rainfall totals through spring and summer of 2020 set new records across the Southwest, and the combination of extremely low soil moisture leading into winter and snow drought through winter means that run-off in the spring of 2021 has been very low.
In this EOS opinion article, NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program Drought Task Force leaders working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) describe the disastrous impacts of droughts, heat waves, and fires in the United States and the world. They also discuss new MAPP- and NIDIS-funded research that is tackling the challenges of a drier, hotter, more fire-prone future.
Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for December 2020 – February 2021. Dated March 2021.
Winter temperatures were well above normal in southern California and slightly above normal in all of Nevada, Washington, and Oregon. Near or slightly below normal temperatures were found in parts of New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. Much of the West saw below normal precipitation throughout the winter.
Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for September – November 2020. Dated December 2020.
Temperatures were above-average during the fall west of the Rocky Mountains, favored by a strong high pressure ridge anchored along the coast. Although fall is typically dry in the southern half of the West, the persistent ridge prevented landfalling Pacific storms, leading to well-below normal precipitation in many regions.
Provides information on the typical La Niña winter pattern; the La Niña outlook; potential impacts; and comparisons of conditions during previous La Niña years.
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal.