What can drought-stricken California expect from the El Niño winter forecast?

A science assessment by a subgroup of the NOAA Drought Task Force. Recognizing the sensitivity of likely impacts on California winter precipitation to El Niño intensity, and also recognizing the spread of possible outcomes even for a very strong El Niño, the outlook must be expressed probabilistically. Nonetheless, this brief assessment leads to the following key points: (1) Impacts are likely to be greater in late winter than early winter; (2) Southern California has a stronger chance of wet conditions than northern California; and (3) in case of a very strong El Niño, heavy precipitation is more likely across the entire state.