Provides a definition of El Nino; potential winter impacts; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.

NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports. 

Current Drought Conditions 

Over the course of the 2018 Water Year (Oct. 2017 - Sept. 2018), drought crept back into California-Nevada. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions have not changed over the last 2 months except for expansion of severe drought (D3) at the Oregon and Utah borders. As of Sept. 25, ~48% of California-Nevada was in moderate to extreme drought and ~43% was abnormally dry. Current forecasts show most drought areas persisting into the early winter with above-normal temperatures likely.

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for Alaska and Northwestern Canada for June – August 2018; outlook for October – December 2018.  Dated September 2018. 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for June – August 2018.  Dated September 2018.

Summer temperatures were near normal across the Inland Northwest and above normal elsewhere in the region, especially in the Southwest. Monsoon precipitation was variable throughout the season, though many Southwest locations ended up with near to slightly above normal precipitation.

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific Islands Region for May – July 2018.  Dated August 2018.

Includes significant events, regional climate overview, and sectoral impacts for May – July 2018; regional outlook for August – October 2018. 

July 2018 drought outlook for the states of California and Nevada. This two page document includes current drought conditions, a regional climate update, drought and climate outlook.

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for Alaska and Northwestern Canada for March – May 2018; outlook for July – September 2018.  Dated June 2018.   

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for March – May 2018.  Dated June 2018.

Spring precipitation was above normal in a broad swath from central California northeast into Montana.  Well below normal precipitation across much of the Four Corners states; Arizona and New Mexico had their 10th driest spring.

May 2018 drought outlook for the states of California and Nevada. This two page document includes current drought conditions, a regional climate update, drought and climate outlook.

Below is a summary of the 23 May webinar led by Brian Fuchs, Climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, and Ed Delgado, National Program Manager, Predictive Services, National Interagency Fire Center. The webinar explained drought conditions and outlook, as well as drought and wildfire in the region.