Pacific Northwest DEWS Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: December 13, 2021

Webinar Introduction

Speaker: Britt Parker, NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

Climate Recap and Current Conditions

Speaker: Karin Bumbaco, Office of the Washington State Climatologist

• ​​Overall, it was generally a warm and wet September–November:
  • Temperatures: It was the 2nd warmest September–November on record for Montana and the 6th warmest for Idaho (since 1895).
  • Precipitation: Washington had its 6th wettest September–November on record (since 1895).
• November was especially warm, ranking between the 6th and 13th warmest for each of the four states, and precipitation was mixed.
• Heavy precipitation in Washington and parts of Oregon led to major November flooding, and we can’t put the blame on La Niña for that one.
• Snowpack is subpar throughout the Pacific Northwest, with a few exceptions.
• There have been some drought improvements for the Pacific Northwest according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, mostly in Washington and Idaho.

Climate and Drought Outlooks

Speaker: Andrea Bair, NOAA/National Weather Service Western Region

• El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
• La Niña conditions are present.*
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
• The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions.
• La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021–22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2022 (~60% chance during April–June).*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (on the second Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.

Smoke Ready Communities

Speaker: Heidi Huber-Sterns, University of Oregon

• Smoke Ready Communities: A community of interest where public health, environmental quality, researchers, and outreach educators routinely connect. 
• Smoke Survey: A survey of how Oregon residents experienced 2020 smoke events is anticipated in early 2022.
• Grant Opportunities: Small forestland and smoke management grant programs are seeking applicants.
• Have smoke resources or questions about finding information? Contact john.punches@oregonstate.edu.

An Analysis of the Impact of Drought on Agriculture, Local Economies, Public Health, and Crime Across the Western United States

Speaker: Chris Goemans, Colorado State University

• Goal: Develop a temporally and geographically generalizable approach to estimating drought impacts across a wide range of economic and non-economic sectors.
• Impacts:
  • Agricultural Production
    • Higher temperatures and precipitation have a positive and statistically significant impact on total production; however, these effects are diminishing and become negative for conditions well above the mean.
    • Each additional month of extreme drought conditions (PDSI<-3) is associated with a decrease in total corn and wheat production of 3.2 and 3.6 percent, respectively.
    • Drought conditions that occur during the growing season have a much larger negative impact on total production than during the non-growing season.
  • Employment, Wages, and Number of Establishments
    • Severe drought leads to a small, but statistically significant decrease in the overall number of businesses. The negative effect is largely due to decreases in the recreation and entertainment, service, agricultural supply, and trade sectors.
    • For agriculture supply and agricultural, fishing, and hunting, each additional month of extreme drought is associated with a reduction in total wages of approximately 1.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
    • Each additional month of extreme drought reduces wages in the broader recreation and entertainment industry by 0.59 percent.
• Read the report.