Oct 24

News & Events

Pacific Northwest DEWS Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: October 24, 2022

October 24, 2022

11:00 am - 12:00 pm

PDT

These webinars provide the region's stakeholders and interested parties with timely information on current and developing drought conditions, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers also discuss the impacts of these conditions on things such as wildfires, floods, disruption to water supply and ecosystems, as well as impacts to affected industries like agriculture, tourism, and public health.

0:00

Webinar Introduction

Speaker: Janelle Christensen, USDA Northwest Climate Hub

This bi-monthly webinar is co-hosted by NIDIS, the USDA Northwest Climate Hub, and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI).
Introduction of today's speakers:
- Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik, Verisak Weather Solutions
- Jon Gottschalck, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- Meghan Collins, Desert Research Institute
- Ben Hatchett, Desert Research Institute
- Keith Jennings, Lynker Technologies
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS)
Now open: FY 2023 MAPP Competition: Science for the 21st Century Western U.S. Hydroclimate.

08:02

Climate Recap and Current Conditions

Speaker: Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik, Verisak Weather Solutions

Warm and dry conditions were present from July through mid-October.
A delayed start to the rainy season has resulted in record warm/dry anomalies in the last 30 days.
Year-to-date precipitation is near normal thanks to wet conditions in winter/spring.
Drought conditions are better than last year at this time, but streamflows are at record lows in many areas.
Wildfire season is largely over (finally).

19:40

Seasonal Conditions & Climate Outlook

Speaker: Jon Gottschalck, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

La Niña conditions continue in the Pacific Ocean as shown by both oceanic and atmospheric conditions
La Niña most likely will remain in place through the winter 2022–2023.
Above-normal precipitation is most likely for much of the Pacific Northwest during the November–January and December–February 3-month seasons. Odds decrease thereafter for western areas of the region.
Below-normal temperatures are favored for the northern half of the region during December–February and January–March as colder conditions sometimes are more likely later in the winter.
Forecast extended range outlooks (Weeks 1–3) currently show enhanced storminess (rainfall, snowfall, high winds), which is anticipated to improve current drought conditions in the region.

33:00

Mountain Rain or Snow: Citizen Scientists Help Advance Precipitation Phase Research

Speakers: Meghan Collins and Ben Hatchett, Desert Research Institute; Keith Jennings, Lynker Technologies

What is the goal of Mountain Rain or Snow? Improve estimates of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation with real-time, ground-based observations of winter weather.
What have we learned so far? A threshold of 0°C for the rain to snow transition isn’t accurate, and what’s interesting is that the transition differs by region. And satellite technologies also struggle in different ways in different regions to estimate the rain–snow transition.
Want to contribute? Text 855-909-0798 or visit https://rainorsnow.org New regions/locations are welcomed!

45:00

Monitoring the Daily Evolution and Extent of Snow Drought

Speakers: Ben Hatchett, Desert Research Institute

Snow droughts are times when there is less snow than expected; these can be extended periods during the winter season where snowpack falls below normal or can be defined at key points in time (e.g., April 1 for making management decisions).
The Pacific Northwest is susceptible to both dry snow drought (below-normal precipitation and below-normal snowpack, e.g., Water Year 2001) and warm snow drought (above-normal precipitation and below-normal snowpack, e.g., much of Water Year 2015).
Snow drought types and their seasonal evolution (onset and termination, as well as severity) can be tracked at the station level and across space using snow drought phase diagrams (Hatchett et al. 2022), showing how snowpack and precipitation evolve during the water year
Snow droughts can impact ecosystems and water resource management differently depending on their severity, timing, duration, and type: phase diagrams help 'paint the picture' of how snow drought played out through the year and why outcomes occurred.
A warming world will increase the frequency, severity, and spatial extent of snow droughts in the Pacific Northwest and throughout the American Cordillera.
Resources:

57:40

Conclusion and Q&A

Speaker: Britt Parker, NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS); Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

Register now for the next webinar on December 19, 2022.

Key Partners

NOAA emblem

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Weather Service (NWS)

Northwest Climate Hub

Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Desert Research Institute

Lynker Technologies, LLC

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