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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: February 28, 2023

Event Date
February 28, 2023
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EST
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This past month brought warmer than normal temperatures across the region, with February on track to be the warmest or one of the warmest on record for many locations in the region. The region has also seen more precipitation which has helped eliminate drought conditions across the Southeast, except in parts of the Florida Peninsula which continues to be drier than normal and where drought is expanding. Streamflows are near normal across most of the Southeast, noting that streamflows typically are at the highest levels for this time of year for most of the interior Southeast.

Looking Ahead: Warm conditions will continue over the next week, but a cooler pattern is expected in weeks 3-4. River flood risk over the next 3 months is expected to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems.

Check out this month’s special presentation, “Exploring Exposure in the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation Portal.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is "Exploring Exposure in the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation Portal."

 

Timestamp
0:57

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were well above average over the past month; February is on track to be the warmest or one of the warmest on record for many locations in the region.
  • Precipitation was above average across northern portions of Alabama and Florida, eastern portions of Georgia and South Carolina, and southeastern Florida; precipitation deficits were observed across the Florida Peninsula, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
  • Drought was eliminated across the western Florida Panhandle and Atlantic Coast; conditions improved across the rest of the Panhandle; drought emerged across the Florida Peninsula and the U.S. Virgin Islands; abnormally dry (D0) conditions persisted across Puerto Rico; drought is expected to persist in existing areas and expand across the Florida Peninsula over the next 3 months.
  • ENSO: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is very likely over the next several months, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the late spring and early summer; a transition to El Niño may occur later this summer.
  • Looking Ahead – Next 4 Weeks: Above average temperatures are likely over the next two weeks, while a major pattern change will bring below average temperatures and above average precipitation to the region in weeks 3 and 4.
  • Looking Ahead – Seasonal: Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be above average across the region, with below-average precipitation across Florida and above average precipitation across the northern tier.
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the Southeast region can be accessed via the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

 

Timestamp
8:30

Water Resources: Winter/Spring Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are mostly near normal across most of the Southeast.
  • Streamflows are typically at the highest levels for this time of year for most of the interior Southeast.
  • Looking Ahead: Overall through the 3-month period, the river flood risk is forecast to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems. March into early April may continue to observe scattered minor flooding in the region. By late April into May, flooding will become less likely. For the Florida Peninsula, the late spring season is typically quiet as far as river flooding. In June, the convective wet season begins and flooding becomes more active.
  • Additional information is available through the National Weather Service.

 

Timestamp
14:35

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Warmer than normal temperatures and little frost in the last month have allowed rapid green-up of vegetation and blooming of fruit trees.
  • Wetter areas are seeing an increase in fungal disease, but dry areas are in need of irrigation to sustain plant growth.
  • Chill hours are not likely to reach last year’s accumulations. 
  • Looking Ahead: Much of the region is still at 50% or more likelihood of another frost. Warm conditions will continue for next week, but a cooler pattern is
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
21:55

Special Presentation: Exploring Exposure in the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) Portal

Speaker: LuAnn Dahlman, NOAA Climate Program Office

 

Timestamp
36:20

Closing

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Register for the next webinars!
    • March 28, 2023: La Niña scorecard for the Southeast, and What to Expect This Spring/Early Summer
    • April 25, 2023: How Does a Warming Planet Affect Precipitation in the Southeast?
    • May 23, 2023: A Web-Based Tool to Assess Heat Risk Using Wet Bulb Globe Temperature

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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NWS River Forecast Centers

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Southeast Regional Climate Center

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University of Georgia

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Climate Program Office (CPO)

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