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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: March 8, 2022

Event Date
March 8, 2022
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EST

The Southeast region experienced a winter that could not make up its mind! December was dry and warm, January was cooler with more precipitation, and February leaned to drier and warmer conditions. The recent dryness is concerning because, for much of the region, this is the time of the year when river flooding peaks (except for the Florida peninsula) and water recharge takes place. However, streamflows are mostly below normal, especially across the Carolinas and in some parts of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Anticipated rain over the next week will help improve this precipitation deficit, but this still needs to be monitored carefully as the region moves into the spring and water demand increases. Looking farther ahead, the three-month Southeast outlooks depict a higher probability of above-normal temperatures, streamflows to continue in the below normal range, less flooding than typical, and some additional drought development across the region. 

Do you want to learn more about what you can do to help provide information in support of natural resources, education, and research applications? Listen to an overview of CoCoRaHSthe Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network—which is a unique, non-profit, community-based network of volunteers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail, snow).

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Sandra Rayne, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Webinar focus: Climate and special topics pertaining to the Southeast region.
  • Our special topic today is CoCoRaHS: The Value of Citizen Science Observers.

 

Timestamp
1:01

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Sandra Rayne, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Climate Overview: Overall, temperatures were above average and precipitation was below average for the past 30 days. The winter season had above-average temperatures with below-average precipitation, which is a typical La Niña pattern. Key severe weather events observed last month included 3 EF-2 tornadoes in Alabama. Wildfires in the Florida Panhandle in early March have been attributed to drought conditions and tree debris from Hurricane Michael (2018).
  • La Niña Advisory: La Niña conditions are expected to continue with a 77% chance through March–May 2022, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring/summer 2022 (56% chance May–July). The next update is this Thursday, March 10, 2022.  
  • Drought: Drought conditions are slowly expanding again in the Southeast region due to the recent higher temperatures and reduced precipitation. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, moderate drought (D1) is present in the eastern Carolinas, as well as parts of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. Drought also remains in the U.S. Caribbean, despite some recent rains after months of exceptional dryness. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Monthly Drought Outlook depicts that drought is expected to persist and expand in coverage in the Southeast U.S. This needs to be monitored carefully as the region moves into the spring and water demand increases.
  • Looking Ahead, Next Week: The CPC's March 13–17 outlook has a higher probability of cooler temperatures and drier conditions across most of the region.
  • Looking Ahead, Seasonal: We are still observing a typical La Niña pattern for the region. The current CPC three-month outlook shows a higher probability of above-normal temperatures. There are equal chances of wetter or drier conditions in Virginia, western North Carolina and South Carolina, and northern Georgia and Alabama, with the probability of drier conditions elsewhere. The next CPC seasonal outlook will be released on March 17.

 

Timestamp
6:32

Water Resources: Spring Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Todd Hamill and Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are below normal, especially across the Carolinas, but also some parts of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Typically, this time of year streamflow is at its peak for much of the Southeast (except the Florida Peninsula).
  • Looking Ahead: Expect streamflows to continue in the below-normal range for much of the Southeast region, with some continued drought development likely through spring. Flooding will be less than typical.
  • Additional information can be found here.

 

Timestamp
13:41

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Warmer weather has led to peach blossoms in the South Carolina midlands and the growth of bermudagrass. Dry conditions have resulted in little disease and pest pressure but have caused problems for forage and small grains.
  • Looking Ahead: A stalled front this week will drop up to several inches of rain, which should reduce drought in northern Florida and further north. Temperatures with the front will be cool but will warm up rapidly later. There is still a chance of frost in many areas outside of Florida. 
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
22:31

CoCoRaHS: The Value of Citizen Science Observers

Speaker: Melissa Griffin, South Carolina State Climatology Office

  • CoCoRaHS is an acronym for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network. CoCoRaHS is a unique, non-profit, community-based network of volunteers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail, snow). By using low-cost measurement tools, stressing training and education, and utilizing an interactive website, our aim is to provide the highest quality data for natural resources, education, and research applications.
  • This presentation provides an overview of CoCoRaHS history and evolution, examples of how these observations provide value to weather forecasts and local understanding, and directions on how to become a CoCoRaHS volunteer.
  • Join CoCoRaHS—it is easy!
  • CoCoRaHS rain gauge suppliers:
  • Online training: 
  • For questions or additional information, reach out to a CoCoRaHS coordinator in your state, or contact Melissa Griffin

 

Timestamp
46:23

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for the next webinars:
    • April 12, 2022, Acidification in the U.S. Southeast: Causes, Potential Consequences
    • May 10, 2022, Hazardous Extremes for Risk Assessment Tool for the Southeast
    • June 28, 2022, 2022 Hurricane Outlook
  • New webinar time starting in June! We are moving these webinars to the 4th Tuesday of the month.

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

 

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