Next month’s Southeast Monthly Climate Webinar is on Tuesday, August 10 at 10 a.m. Eastern, with a special presentation on "Heat Risk Tools for the Southeast." Register here for upcoming monthly webinars.
Climate Conditions and Outlooks
- June temperatures were near average for most of the Southeast region.
- June precipitation was variable due to summer thunderstorms and tropical systems.
- La Niña Watch: ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through summer and into fall (51% chance August–October), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September–November season and lasting through the 2021–22 winter (66% chance November–January).
- Tropical Update:
- Tropical storms Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny
- Hurricane Elsa
- Looking Ahead: According to the July 14–18 outlook, odds favor warmer temperatures for Virginia and North Carolina and drier conditions for the coastal Carolinas.
- Abnormally Dry conditions (D0) are present in Virginia, the Carolinas, and Puerto Rico, with Moderate Drought (D1) at the Virginia–North Carolina border and southern Puerto Rico.
- Looking Ahead: Drought removal is likely.
Water Resources and Summer Flood Outlook
- Streamflows are above normal across Alabama, most of Florida, and parts of the Carolinas from Tropical Storm Claudette in June and, recently, Hurricane Elsa. Georgia streamflows are mostly near normal.
- Looking Ahead: The summer flood outlook calls for typical river flooding, which is fairly minimal/isolated from July to September. The exception is the Florida Peninsula, where magnitude and number go up with tropical and convective storm season.
- Looking Ahead: Flash flooding and headwater flooding will have the greatest risk through late summer in the Southeast. Tropical systems will also dictate the threat into autumn.
Agriculture Impact and Outlook
- The region did not experience too many adverse impacts from tropical storms, other than lots of rain and some locally severe weather.
- There is no sign of flash drought, although there are dry areas in central and western North Carolina and Virginia.
- Lots of disease pressure from fungal diseases and insect pests.
- Looking Ahead: Tropical activity is expected to be relatively quiet for the next few weeks. The current cycle of "rinse and repeat" is expected to occur for at least the next week.
New Climate Normals
- There are now almost 15,000 stations with precipitation normals and more than 7,300 stations with temperature normals.
- Warming from 1981–2010 to 1991–2020 is widespread but not ubiquitous across the conterminous U.S., either in geographic space or time of year, with recent cooling in the North Central U.S.
- Precipitation changes from 1981–2010 to 1991–2020 also vary considerably on a month-to-month basis, but are generally wetter in the Southeast and Central U.S.
What Happened: Southeast Temperature
What Happened: Southeast Precipitation
Current Conditions: River Flood Status
Looking Ahead: Summer Flood Outlook
Looking Ahead: Seasonal Outlooks
Temperature Outlook: July–September 2021
Precipitation Outlook: July–September 2021
- Sandra Rayne, Southeast Regional Climate Center
- Jeff Dobur, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center
- Pam Knox, University of Georgia
- Michael Palecki, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Relevant Regional Resources
- National Hurricane Center
- Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
- National Hurricane Preparedness Week
- National Hurricane Center Facebook page
- National Hurricane Center Twitter page