Provides a definition of El Nino; potential winter impacts; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.
Current Drought Conditions
Over the course of the 2018 Water Year (Oct. 2017 - Sept. 2018), drought crept back into California-Nevada. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions have not changed over the last 2 months except for expansion of severe drought (D3) at the Oregon and Utah borders. As of Sept. 25, ~48% of California-Nevada was in moderate to extreme drought and ~43% was abnormally dry. Current forecasts show most drought areas persisting into the early winter with above-normal temperatures likely.
Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for June – August 2018. Dated September 2018.
Summer temperatures were near normal across the Inland Northwest and above normal elsewhere in the region, especially in the Southwest. Monsoon precipitation was variable throughout the season, though many Southwest locations ended up with near to slightly above normal precipitation.
Two-page summary of the July 25, 2018 webinar on current Southwest U.S. drought conditions, impacts, and outlook and wildfires.
July 2018 drought outlook for the states of California and Nevada. This two page document includes current drought conditions, a regional climate update, drought and climate outlook.
Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for March – May 2018. Dated June 2018.
Spring precipitation was above normal in a broad swath from central California northeast into Montana. Well below normal precipitation across much of the Four Corners states; Arizona and New Mexico had their 10th driest spring.
May 2018 drought outlook for the states of California and Nevada. This two page document includes current drought conditions, a regional climate update, drought and climate outlook.
Below is a summary of the 23 May webinar led by Brian Fuchs, Climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, and Ed Delgado, National Program Manager, Predictive Services, National Interagency Fire Center. The webinar explained drought conditions and outlook, as well as drought and wildfire in the region.
March 2018 drought outlook for the states of California and Nevada. This two page document includes current drought conditions, a regional climate update, drought and climate outlook, and insight into current snowpack and spring/summer streamflow conditions.
Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for December 2017 – February 2018. Dated March 2018.
Temperatures were well above normal in the Southwest: Arizona, California, New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada all had top-10 warmest December-February on record. Dry conditions dominated the Southwest as well: California, Nevada, and Utah had bottom-10 driest December-February on record.