California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: January 22, 2024

Welcome to the California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar

Speaker: Amanda Sheffield | NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CU Boulder/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

• Welcome to the January 2024 California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook webinar. 
• Recent News: 
  • The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) was released on November 15 by the Biden-Harris Administration and the U.S. Global Change Research Program. View the Southwest chapter and its February 23 webinar. 
  • NIDIS News: New Report on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate.
• State and regional level drought information can be found on Drought.gov: California, Nevada, California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System.

Drought and Climate Update

Speaker: Daniel McEvoy | Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute

• There have been dry and warm conditions to start the water year for much of the region. 
• Snow drought developed in the Sierra Nevada. It will be hard, but not impossible, to catch up at this point (i.e., need several big storm cycles).
• We have had more precipitation and better snowpack in northwest Nevada. 
• Drought impacts currently remain limited due to carryover from the big 2023 water year. 

Drought and Climate Outlook

Speaker: Julie Kalansky | CNAP, CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

• Forecasts indicate more storms and precipitation are on the way, but the strength and location are to be determined. 
• Above-normal precipitation for California-Nevada is forecasted in the 8–14 day range and in the monthly time frame. Odds  lean above normal for southern California-Nevada on the seasonal (3-month) timescale. 
• El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral conditions favored during April–June 2024 (73% chance).
• See the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center, and CW3E for more information. 

State Climatologist Perspectives on the Current Conditions

California

Speaker: Michael Anderson | California State Climatologist, California Department of Water Resources

• ENSO by itself is NOT a good predictor of water year outcomes in California. 
• The scale of storms thus far has not been as expected and has been regionally variable. Primarily warm storms with higher snow levels.
• Remaining question: When will the storms shut off?
• Visit California Water Watch for more information. 

Nevada

Speaker: Tom Albright | Nevada State Climatologist (interim), University of Nevada, Reno

• Nevada is experiencing lingering trauma from the recent 3.5-year drought. 
• Recent attention has been on the ending of this drought and the poor start to the 2024 snowpack and water year, with the exception of Northeastern Nevada.
• Conditions over the rest of the season will be key.
• Visit the Nevada State Climate Office for more information.

Introduction to the Colorado River Science Wiki

Speaker: Tanya Petach | Aspen Global Change Institute

• Objectives: 
  • Share research relevant to the Colorado River 
  • Provide up-to-date overviews of many areas of science and applications 
  • Provide a one-stop shop for key datasets, online tools, and other resources 
  • Engage the broader Colorado River community in collating and sharing knowledge
  • Facilitate informed discussions and decisions 
• See recording for a tour of the wiki.
• Major funding: Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. 
• Visit the Colorado River Science Wiki for more information.

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Amanda Sheffield | NOAA/NIDIS, CU Boulder/CIRES

• Register now for the next webinar in this series on Monday, March 25, 2024.