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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: April 25, 2023

Event Date
April 25, 2023
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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The start of 2023 could best be described as “warm’’ for much of the Southeast, where most states observed their warmest mean temperatures on record between January and March. Temperatures were above average over the past month. Precipitation was more variable with below-average amounts in the northern and southern ends of the region and above-average amounts across the middle of the region and in southeast Florida. Drought conditions improved across southern portions of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and eastern North Carolina, while drought expanded across Virginia, the Florida Peninsula, and Puerto Rico. El Niño is coming on strong, and we are currently in an El Niño Watch. Streamflows are mostly in the normal range as we are coming out of the Southeast wet season. Reservoirs have begun their climb to summer pools. The Florida Peninsula differs, where the wet season begins in June and ramps up through early fall.

Looking Ahead: Cool and wet conditions are expected over the next two weeks. Over the next three months, temperature and precipitation are expected to be above average with drought removal likely across the region, including Puerto Rico. River flood risk is forecast to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems. Early summer is generally a down time for flooding in the Southeast because the wet season has ended for the interior Southeast. For the Florida Peninsula, the late spring season typically is quiet as far as river flooding until the convective wet season begins in June and flooding becomes more active. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the spring. If El Niño effects start early, we could see wet and cool conditions start in mid/late fall, and this is something that agricultural producers should consider in their planting and harvesting decisions.

Check out this month’s special presentation, “How does a warming planet affect precipitation in the Southeast,” from Adam Terando at the USGS Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is "How does a warming planet affect precipitation in the Southeast?"

 

Timestamp
1:00

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were above average over the past month; many locations in the region have observed their warmest mean temperature on record over the first 3–4 months of the year; temperatures were variable across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
  • Precipitation was below average in the northern and southern ends of the region and much of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; several locations in these areas observed their driest start to the year; precipitation was above average across the middle of the region and in southeast Florida; a possible state record for 24-hour rainfall was observed at the Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood airport with over 25 inches on April 12.
  • Drought conditions improved across southern portions of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and eastern North Carolina; moderate drought (D1) expanded across Virginia and Puerto Rico; severe drought (D2) expanded across the Florida Peninsula; extreme drought (D3) emerged along part of the Nature Coast north of Tampa, Florida; dry conditions to severe drought persisted across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
  • ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the spring, followed by >60% chance of El Niño developing during May–July and >80% chance during the fall (~40% chance of a strong El Niño).
  • Over the next two weeks, cool and wet conditions are expected across much of the region; warm weather is expected across the Florida Peninsula during weeks 3 and 4, while much of the region will remain wetter than normal.
  • Over the next three months, temperature and precipitation are expected to be above average with drought removal likely across the region, including Puerto Rico.
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the southeast region can be accessed at the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

 

Timestamp
10:17

Water Resources: Spring Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • River streamflow (based on 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows) has mostly been in the normal streamflow range for the Southeast coming out of the wet season. Reservoirs have begun their climb to summer pools. The Florida Peninsula differs, where the wet season begins in June and ramps up through early fall.
  • Early Summer Flood Outlook (May–July): Overall through the upcoming 3-month period, the river flood risk is forecast to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems. Early summer is generally a down time for flooding in the Southeast because the wet season has ended for the interior Southeast.
  • For the Florida Peninsula, the late spring season typically is quiet as far as river flooding. In June, the convective wet season begins, and flooding becomes more active.
  • View additional information.

 

Timestamp
16:48

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Frost affected some northern, higher-elevation locations this past month. 
  • Wet and cool conditions have hindered planting of cotton and peanuts, but warmer conditions earlier in spring allowed early planting of corn in southern areas.
  • Frost damage to fruit trees and blueberries is still being assessed, but yields appear to be better than expected overall.
  • Looking ahead: El Niño may cause early start to cool and wet conditions in fall. Producers should plant varieties that mature early and plan to harvest as soon as possible.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
24:35

Special Presentation: How Does a Warming Planet Affect Precipitation in the Southeast?

Speaker: Adam Terando, USGS Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC), NC State University

  • A warmer atmosphere will contain more water vapor (this is known as the Clausius-Claperyon Relation).
  • The biggest consequence of this is that extreme precipitation events occur more frequently, and with more intensity.
  • Extreme precipitation forms a large portion of total annual precipitation and will make up an even larger proportion of annual precipitation as the climate warms.
  • It is possible to have increases in extreme precipitation while also having little change, or even decreases, in total precipitation.
  • In the Southeast, we’ve had small to moderate increases in total precipitation, but it is occurring on fewer days due to more extreme precipitation events. 
  • Questions? Contact Adam Ternado.

 

Timestamp
47:20

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for the next webinars!
    • May 23, 2023: A Web-Based Tool to Assess Heat Risk Using Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
    • June 27, 2023: 2023 Hurricane Outlook

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

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