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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: August 22, 2023

Event Date
August 22, 2023
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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This past month was a ‘Tale of Two Temperatures’ in the Southeast, with below-average temperatures across the interior of the region, while the southern tier and the Caribbean remained hot and humid. Many locations in Florida recorded their warmest month on record in July. Precipitation was also variable. Drought conditions improved across Tennessee and northern Alabama, persisted on St. Thomas and St. Croix, emerged in eastern North Carolina and St. John, and intensified across the western Florida Peninsula and northwestern Puerto Rico. High temperatures and spotty storms are leading to an expansion of abnormally dry conditions across several states. Streamflows are mostly near normal across the region and typically are in their summer low period this time of year. The exception is the Florida Peninsula, where streamflows ramp up during the wet season into the tropical season, though the Florida wet season has not been as pronounced this year so far, especially across the western Peninsula. 

Looking Ahead: Over the next two weeks, temperatures are expected to be above average across the southern tier of the region and below average across the northern tier. Drier-than-average conditions are expected across the interior of the region, with wetter-than-average conditions along the East Coast. Warm weather is expected across the entire region during weeks 3 and 4, with equal chances of above- and below-average precipitation. River flood risk through the next 3 months is forecast to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems, with possibly some increase in rainfall and streamflow above what is typical in mid to late November. El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen. We are entering the most active period for tropical activity in the Southeast. 

Check out this month’s special presentation, “Future Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Southeastern U.S.” from Jacob LaFontaine at the USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center. 

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • This webinar contains a special presentation on "Future Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Southeastern U.S." from Jacob LaFontaine at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) South Atlantic Water Science Center. 

 

Timestamp
1:00

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were below average across the interior of the region, while the southern tier and the Caribbean remained hot and humid; many locations in Florida recorded their warmest month on record in July.
  • Precipitation was variable; much of Tennessee, Georgia, northern Alabama, and eastern Florida were wetter than average, while parts of the Gulf Coast, eastern North Carolina, and much of Virginia were drier than average; dryness persisted across the U.S. Virgin Islands and intensified across northwest Puerto Rico.
  • Drought conditions improved across Tennessee and northern Alabama; moderate drought persisted across northern Virginia; abnormal dryness emerged across the northern Gulf Coast and in parts of Georgia and South Carolina; moderate drought emerged in eastern North Carolina; extreme drought re-emerged across the western Florida Peninsula; severe drought emerged across northwest Puerto Rico; extreme drought persisted on St. Thomas and St. Croix while moderate drought emerged on St. John.
  • El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter with a 2-in-3 chance of a strong event.
  • Over the next two weeks, temperatures are expected to be above average across the southern tier of the region and below average across the northern tier; drier than average conditions are expected across the interior of the region with wetter than average conditions along the East Coast. Warm weather is expected across the entire region during weeks 3 and 4, with equal chances of above- and below-average precipitation.
  • Over the next three months, warm and wet conditions are expected across the Southeast and Caribbean; drought removal is likely across the Southeast with improvements across the Caribbean; no new development is expected.
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the Southeast region can be accessed via the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Information on Tropical Storm Activity can be found via the National Hurricane Center.

 

Timestamp
9:25

Water Resources: Summer Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • 28-day USGS streamflows are mostly near normal across the Southeast. Streamflows typically are in their summer low period this time of year. The exception is the Florida Peninsula, where streamflows ramp up during the wet season into the tropical season—though the Florida wet season has not been as pronounced this year so far. 
  • Looking Ahead: We are entering the most active period for tropical activity, basically the month of September, for the Southeast. Of course, tropical systems can change flood potential quickly. Overall through the 3-month period, the river flood risk is forecast to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems, with possibly some increase in rainfall and streamflow above what is typical in mid to late November.
  • View additional information.

 

Timestamp
16:35

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia (presented by Chris Furhmann)

  • Heat has caused accelerated growth of crops, and rainfall has provided adequate moisture in most places for continued growth.
  • Fungal diseases are still a big issue due to heat and humidity.
  • Early harvested corn and other crops generally look quite good due to adequate moisture, but there are some crops struggling due to dry conditions later in the season.
  • Farmers are making the transition now to fall vegetables and other crops or planting cover crops to improve soil fertility for next year.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
23:05

Future Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Southeastern U.S.

Speaker: Jacob LaFontaine, USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center

  • Consistent baseline information about hydrologic response to potential changes in climate and land cover at the watershed scale is needed to (1) supplement observation networks at ungaged locations, (2) quantify the direction and magnitude of potential changes, (3) plan for future conditions and challenges, and (4) identify needed improvements in existing methods.
  • This research utilized an automated methodology to provide model-based streamflow and stream temperature information products to help inform management decisions.
  • The range of projected changes within the ensemble can be substantial, but it is still possible to find meaningful ways to use the information.
  • Moving forward, there needs to be a consideration of how much range is acceptable while still being able to make actionable decisions.
  • For more information, contact Jacob LaFontaine.

 

Timestamp
44:55

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for the next webinar on September 26, 2023: Climate-Driven Changes in Prescribed Fire in the Southeastern U.S.

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

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