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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: February 27, 2024

Event Date
February 27, 2024
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
ET
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​​El Niño reached “very strong” intensity during the winter months and impacted weather and climate patterns across the Southeast as anticipated. Increased precipitation events and storminess resulted in the elimination of drought across most of the region and produced widespread minor flooding and numerous moderate and major floods over the last month. Looking ahead, river flood risk is expected to stay above normal as we approach spring and El Niño continues to keep the southeast U.S. active.

Check out the video recording and summary  to learn more about Southeast climate conditions and a special presentation, "The Fifth National Climate Assessment: Southeast” from Jeremy Hoffman of Groundwork USA. For more information, please contact Meredith Muth (meredith.f.muth@noaa.gov).

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: David Zierden, Florida State Climatologist, Florida State University

 

Timestamp
0:20

Southeast Climate Conditions 

Speaker: David Zierden, Florida State Climatologist, Florida State University

  • ​​El Niño reached “very strong” intensity during the winter months and impacted weather and climate patterns across the Southeast as anticipated.
  • Precipitation was generally above average across most of the Southeast region, with the exception of northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.
  • Storminess also accompanied El Niño, with several vigorous Gulf low pressure systems and reports of tornadoes and severe weather.
  • Drought was eliminated across most of the Southeast, with only pockets of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions remaining in northern Alabama and coastal North Carolina.
  • El Niño is expected to weaken this spring with a transition to La Niña conditions over the summer.
  • Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be near average across much of the region, and precipitation is forecast to have a greater chance of above-normal conditions. El Niño tends to lose its influence in April and May.
  • Additional regional climate and drought information:

 

Timestamp
17:40

Water Resources Outlook 

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • The El Niño pattern that we forecasted took hold, and there were numerous precipitation events that produced widespread minor flooding and numerous moderate and major floods in the area in the last month.   
  • However, the last couple of weeks have been relatively dry and helped rivers and the soils recover somewhat. While the northern tiers of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia have almost eliminated drought, the piedmont to coastal area of North Carolina has begun to dry out. 
  • Otherwise, most of the 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are above normal across the Southeast, with some pockets of below-normal streamflows.
  • Looking Ahead: Overall through the 3-month period, the river flood risk is above normal as we approach spring and El Niño continues to keep the southeast U.S. active.  
  • View additional streamflow and flood information.

 

Timestamp
27:00

Agricultural Impacts and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia

  • Increases in soil moisture due to a lot of rain in recent weeks caused improvements in forage and small grains but made fields muddy and hard to access.
  • Early crops are generally in good condition with typical disease pressure.
  • Plants in many places are leafing out 1–2 weeks early, and blooming has reached almost into central Alabama and Georgia.
  • There have been more chill hours this year than last year, so fruit trees are ready to bloom soon, which could put them at risk from a later frost.
  • Cool and dry conditions in early February have transitioned into wetter and warmer conditions in most places, improving soil moisture, forage, and small grains.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
34:14

Fifth National Climate Assessment, Chapter 22: Southeast

Speaker: Jeremy Hoffman, Groundwork USA

  • On November 14, 2023, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). The NCA5 is the preeminent source of authoritative information on the risks, impacts, and responses to climate change in the United States. Over 500 experts from across the Nation developed the report, and thousands of stakeholders were engaged in the process.
  • The Southeast chapter highlights that the region's growing population faces increasing threats from climate change, with impacts on human health, ecosystems, economies, infrastructure, and food systems. While there have been notable advancements in adaptation throughout the region, these efforts tend to be concentrated in wealthier coastal and metropolitan areas, leaving rural and other under-resourced communities at risk. Coordinated climate strategies could improve equity, well-being, and economic vitality.
  • The four key messages from the Southeast chapter are:
    • Regional Growth Increases Climate Risks
    • Climate Change Worsens Human Health and Widens Health Inequities
    • Climate Change Disproportionately Damages Southeastern Jobs, Households, and Economic Security
    • Agriculture Faces Growing Threats, but Innovations Offer Help.
  • Read the full Southeast Chapter.
  • For more information, contact Jeremy Hoffman. 

 

Timestamp
56:20

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Eleanor Hasenbeck, NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)/CU Boulder

  • Register for the next webinars!
    • March 26, 2024: U.S. Phenology Network and the 2024 Pollen Season
    • April 23, 2024: Tornado Vulnerability in the Southeast

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

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