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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: November 15, 2022

Event Date
November 15, 2022
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EST

The last month was unseasonably warm in the Southeast, with much above-average temperatures reported across many locations. Most of the region continued to remain dry due to low precipitation rates, which has led to the continuation and gradual expansion of drought in many areas. The exception is those areas affected by Hurricane Nicole, which made landfall in Florida on November 10. Nicole resulted in significant coastal erosion and property damage; it is the first November hurricane to strike Florida in 37 years. Rain from Nicole helped alleviate dry soils and stop drought expansion, at least for now. Streamflows are near normal to below normal across most of the Southeast, except for the Florida Peninsula; this follows the normal pattern where interior Southeast streamflows are typically at the lowest levels for this time of the year.

Looking ahead: The next couple of weeks look to be cool and wet, with a return to warm and dry conditions by the end of the month. Late November is the start of the primary water resources recharge period for the interior Southeast whereby rainfall and runoff increases. This is also the time period when the flood season slowly begins. With past dry conditions continuing into early winter and with possible drought continuation and/or expansion, a below-normal flood season can also be expected across the Southeast. The exception is the Florida Peninsula where the dry season begins and the normal risk for flooding is low. La Niña is expected to continue through the winter (3rd in a row!), with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in the spring. Historical La Niña trends favor an increased chance of a warmer and drier winter/early spring across the Southeastern U.S. 

Check out this month’s special presentation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 2022–23 Winter Outlook, which provides an excellent overview of ENSO, and what to expect over this winter and moving into the spring.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 2022–23 Winter Outlook."

 

Timestamp
0:57

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperature and Precipitation: Temperatures were much above average over the past 3 weeks, except across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (near average). Precipitation was mostly below average, except in places affected by Hurricane Nicole and the passage of frontal boundaries; precipitation was above average across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
  • 2022 Hurricane Season: Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida on November 10, resulting in significant coastal erosion and property damage; it is the first November hurricane to strike Florida in 37 years, and current damage estimates are around $500 million. The 2022 hurricane season is running near normal in terms of named storms, and slightly below normal in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes (Cat 3+); the basin-wide ACE index is running about 80% of normal for the season. Monitor the National Hurricane Center for updated conditions and advisories.
  • Drought: According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, over 67% of the region is classified as at least abnormally dry (D0). Moderate drought (D1) expanded by 10%–20% across Alabama and the Carolinas, and severe drought (D2) expanded by 23%–26% across Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are drought-free. The U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov) provides additional drought information at national and local levels. 
  • Looking Ahead: Looking ahead, the next couple of weeks look to be cool and wet (see the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6–10 Day Outlook), with a return to warm and dry conditions by the end of the month (CPC Weeks 3–4 Outlook); current drought areas are likely to persist with new development across Alabama, Georgia, northeast Florida, and central portions of North Carolina and Viriginia (Drought.gov Outlooks and Forecasts).
  • La Niña Advisory and Winter Outlook: See special presentation summary below.  
  • Additional information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the southeast region can be accessed from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

 

Timestamp
10:30

Water Resources: Autumn Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are near normal to below normal across most of the Southeast. The exception is across parts of the Florida Peninsula where streamflows are above normal. Streamflows typically are at the lowest levels for this time of year for most of the interior Southeast.
  • Looking Ahead: Overall through the 3-month period, the river flood risk is forecast to be below what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems. There will still be some river flooding but not as much as the typical late autumn into winter season. For the Florida Peninsula, the dry season begins in late autumn. Flooding is not typical across the area, so the forecast is for the normal flood risk, which is seasonally low.
  • Additional information is available through the National Weather Service.

 

Timestamp
19:50

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Rain from Nicole has stopped expansion of drought, at least for now. The combination of frost and winds from Nicole caused some damage to cotton, but rainfall was welcome.
  • Looking Ahead: Chill hours will accumulate significantly over next two weeks. Frost will hit northern areas that were missed by the last frost. Tropics may be done for year, but it is still possible that something could occur.
  • The Hurricane Preparation and Recovery Commodity Guides, from the USDA Southeast Climate Hub, provide tailored information and guidance by state and by commodity for many different crops/livestock. 
  • Additional information:

 

Timestamp
27:25

Special Presentation: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 2022–23 Winter Outlook

Speaker: Michelle L'Heureux, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Weather Service

  • We are currently in a La Niña.
  • There is a 76% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December–February) 2022–23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February–April 2023 (57% chance).
  • La Niña (+ Trends) favors an increased chance of a warmer and drier winter/early spring across the southeastern U.S. (See the Climate Prediction Center's 3-month outlooks). 
  • Research indicates La Niña (+ Positive Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation) may also favor a more active severe weather season across parts of the Southeast (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky) during the late winter/spring (research article here).  
  • For additional information:

 

Timestamp
44:5-

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System

  • Register for the next webinar!
    • There is no webinar in December.
    • January 24, 2023: 2022 Year in Review. This presentation, by Karin Gleason from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), will look at climate trends in the Southeast region over the last year.

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

 

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