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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: September 24, 2024

Event Date
September 24, 2024
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
ET
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“Feast or Famine” continues to be the theme this summer for the Southeast. Hurricane Francine brought beneficial moisture to parts of Alabama, while a persistent frontal boundary led to heavy rain across much of the Florida Peninsula. The rain from Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight contributed to catastrophic flash flooding across southeastern North Carolina. Some rainfall amounts may have exceeded the 1,000-year recurrence interval. Those interior areas that missed the precipitation continued to dry out and saw drought expand, including northern Alabama and Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina.

Looking ahead, Hurricane Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and become a major hurricane when it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from devastating hurricane winds and life-threatening storm surges continues to increase along northern Florida and southern Georgia. Heavy rainfall and flooding is possible across the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley later this week. Rainfall from this storm is expected to help remove drought conditions in certain areas, such as eastern Alabama, Georgia and eastern Tennessee. 

Check out the recording below to hear more on Southeast climate conditions and a special presentation, "Fire Weather Portal for the Southeast,” from Corey Davis at the North Carolina State Climate Office at North Carolina State University. Another webinar on this expanded tool will be held on September 30 for fire managers and advanced users.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • This webinar contains a special presentation on the "Fire Weather Portal for the Southeast” from Corey Davis at the North Carolina State Climate Office at North Carolina State University.

 

Timestamp
0:50

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were near average to slightly below average across much of the region, except Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which were above average. Some locations are on track to record one of their warmest Septembers on record.
  • Precipitation was highly variable across the region. The Florida Peninsula experienced wetter-than-average conditions. Hurricane Francine dropped 5–10 inches of rain across western portions of the region. Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 brought heavy rain to southeastern North Carolina, with some locations recording over 20 inches (much of this in just 12 hours). Georgia, South Carolina, and interior portions of the Southeast, as well as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, experienced drier-than-average conditions.
  • Drought expanded and intensified across Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia. Drought re-emerged across South Carolina and persisted across northern Virginia. Improvements are expected from the northern Gulf Coast through central portions of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and western and northern portions of Virginia. Drought is expected to persist across the interior of the region, except for those areas that may be impacted by tropical systems such as Hurricane Helene. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands remained drought-free. No new drought development is expected across the Southeast or Caribbean.
  • El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions persisted. The La Niña waiting game continues, and La Niña is now expected to develop in the coming months and persist through the upcoming winter.
  • The next two weeks are expected to be warmer and wetter than average. Over the next month, above-average temperatures are expected across the northern and southern ends of the region, with wetter-than-average conditions over the eastern two-thirds of the region.
  • Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be above-average across the Southeast and Caribbean. There are equal chances of above- and below-average precipitation across the Southeast, while above-average precipitation is expected across the Caribbean.
  • The Atlantic Hurricane season is still active, with Hurricane Helene expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from devastating hurricane winds and life-threatening storm surges continues to increase along northern Florida and southern Georgia. Heavy rainfall and flooding is possible across the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley later this week. It is important to continue monitoring this storm, in particular through your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office and the National Hurricane Center.
  • For more information, contact Chris Fuhrmann.
  • Additional regional climate and drought information:

 

Timestamp
12:20

Water Resources Outlook

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • Tropical season continues to impact the southeast. Hurricane Debby affected parts of Florida and then all the way up the Atlantic Seaboard. Francine affected parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. An unnamed tropical disturbance brought heavy rain and flooding to North and South Carolina. 
  • The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are mostly above normal in many areas affected by tropical systems and below normal in areas that did not receive that rainfall.
  • Looking ahead: Tropical rainfall will continue to be the main driver of flooding along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the Southeast until the hurricane season ends on November 30. Overall, for the next three months, the potential for flooding is highly dependent on where tropical storms develop and impact the area. The only exception to this is the central Florida area that typically sees flooding this time of year due to frequent thunderstorm activity as part of the climatology in the area.
  • Additional streamflow and flood information is available from the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers:
  • Watch a recording of the September 2024 National Weather Service Water Resources Outlook for the Southeast.
  • For more information, contact Todd Hamill.

 

Timestamp
22:28

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia

  • Dry conditions expanded, causing stress to dryland crops, but rainfall from Francine, Potential Tropical Cyclone 8, and other sources provided limited relief earlier in September.
  • Cooler weather caused a slowdown in white mold and spider mites.
  • Drier weather in recent weeks has led to farmers unable to get another hay cutting and delayed the planting of winter grains.
  • Cotton is at a very vulnerable stage right now, and there are concerns about the potential impacts of Hurricane Helene on the cotton and peanut harvests.
  • For more information, contact Pam Knox.
  • Explore additional information on reporting agricultural conditions. 
  • Sign up to receive updates from the Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast: Blog.

 

Timestamp
28:40

Special Presentation: Fire Weather Portal for the Southeast

Speaker: Corey Davis, Assistant State Climatologist, North Carolina State Climate Office

  • The Fire Weather Intelligence Portal, developed by the North Carolina State Climate Office, is a real-time monitoring tool for weather and fire danger conditions across the Southeast region.
  • Recent updates to the tool include reorganized menus, new data export options, an updated gridded Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) product, and the addition of region-wide Fire Danger Rating Areas.
  • The portal is used by landowners, fire managers, and foresters to maintain situational awareness, track wildfire risk in their lands and regions, and inform prescribed burn plans.
  • Links:
  • For more information, contact Corey Davis.

 

Timestamp
1:01:15

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for upcoming webinars!
    • October 22, 2024: Review of the 2024 Growing Season
    • November 19, 2024: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Winter Outlook
    • December 2024: No webinar

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

 
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

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National Weather Service (NWS)

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