Southwest Drought Briefing: September 16, 2021

Welcome to the Southwest Drought Update

Speaker: Joel Lisonbee | NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

• Welcome to the Southwest Drought Briefing. These half-hour webinars will be held monthly for as long as this region is experiencing extreme and exceptional drought conditions.
• Introduction of speakers:
  • Steph McAfee, Nevada State Climatologist, University of Nevada, Reno
  • Jon Gottschalck, Chief, Operational and Predictions Branch of the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

Drought & Climate Update

Speaker: Steph McAfee | Nevada State Climatologist, University of Nevada, Reno

• Summer rains were a (messy) benefit to parts of the Southwest.
• Long-term drought continues.
• Drought is still impacting water resources, wildfire, and agriculture.

Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlook and Overview of the Prediction Process 

Speaker: Jon Gottschalck | Chief, Operational and Predictions Branch of the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

• Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation are favored from autumn through winter 2021–2022 for the Southwest region.
• Favored development of La Niña and associated impacts is one of the primary drivers for the outlook.
• The Climate Prediction Center makes use of many forecast tools—based on both statistical relationships as well as dynamical model forecast output—when preparing the monthly and seasonal outlooks each month.
• Sophisticated techniques utilizing objective, historical skill-based methods aid the forecasters in absorbing and processing the large amount of information available.

Question & Answer

Speaker: Emile Elias | USDA Southwest Climate Hub