Observed and Modeled Interactions Between Droughts and Heat Waves for the Northeast U.S.
The links and potential feedbacks between drought and heat waves are not well understood and can vary regionally and seasonally, and based on how each event is defined. Investigating the relationships between droughts and heat waves can improve the general understanding of when and where these two natural hazards happen together and improve subseasonal to seasonal predictions of both hazards.
This research project provided improved understanding of the interactions between droughts and heat waves, including assessing the ability of weather and climate models to predict these phenomena and their interactions, with a focus on the Northeast U.S. warm season (May-September). The researchers also examined droughts and heat waves at broader scales to contextualize the Northeast U.S. findings.
Key Objectives:
- Identify and investigate the daily circulation patterns for droughts, heat waves, and their interactions during the Northeast U.S. warm season
- Identify and investigate the moisture pathways and their relationships to circulation patterns for droughts, heat waves, and their interactions using a set of moisture-tracking methods for the Northeast U.S. and other regions of North America
- Investigate the predictability of the circulation patterns and their relationships, and analyze the dynamical implications
- Examine the ability of climate models to reproduce the key circulation patterns and relationships
Ultimately, the work sought to provide a framework for improving predictions of these extreme weather events, which is crucial to address climate-related societal challenges.
This project is part of the Drought Task Force IV.
For more information, please contact Crystal Stiles (crystal.stiles@noaa.gov) or Joel Lisonbee (joel.lisonbee@noaa.gov).
Research Snapshot
Mathew Barlow, University of Massachusetts Lowell
Christopher Skinner, University of Massachusetts Lowell
Results of this research
The research team published several peer-reviewed articles focused on the relationship between drought and heat waves:
- Skinner, C.B., D. Touma, M. Barlow, et al. 2025. The spatial extent of heat waves has changed over the past four decades. Communications Earth & Environment 6, 662.
- Agel, L., M. Barlow, C. B. Skinner, and A. V. Karmalkar. 2025. Drought weather in the Northeast United States. Journal of Climate, 38, 2945–2961.
- Fallah, A., M. Barlow, L. Agel, J. Kim, J. Mankin, D.M. Mocko, and C. B. Skinner. 2024. Impact of vegetation assimilation on flash drought characteristics across the continental United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 25(9).
- Skinner, C. B., T. S. Harrington, M. Barlow, and L. Agel. 2023. The contribution of precipitation recycling to North American wet and dry precipitation extremes. Environmental Research: Climate, 2(4), 045010.
- Harrington, T. S., J. Nusbaumer, and C. B. Skinner. 2023. The contribution of transpiration, ground evaporation, and canopy evaporation to local and remote precipitation across North America. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128.
- Agel, L., M. Barlow, C. B. Skinner, F. Colby, and J. Cohen. 2021. Four distinct Northeast U.S. heat wave circulation patterns: Associated mechanisms, trends, and electric usage. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 31.
