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Regional Drought Update Date
June 8, 2023
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Drought Status Update

Southern Plains Drought Status Update


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue further drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Drought Relief Arrives to Western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

    Key Points

    • May is usually the wettest month of the year for the Southern Plains. May 2023 did not disappoint.
      • All Southern Plains states had near-average to above average precipitation for May.
      • Amarillo, Texas, had the third wettest May on record and wettest since 2015.
    • The area in exceptional (D4) drought has decreased since April.
      • Kansas: 20.9% area reduction
      • Oklahoma: 13.8% area reduction
      • Texas: 3.9% area reduction
    • The two largest reservoirs along the Rio Grande, Falcon Lake and Lake Amistad, have seen a small increase since the end of March and are currently at 22% and 38% full, respectively.
    • Winter wheat conditions as of June 4:
    Current Conditions
    U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains | June 6, 2023

    U.S. Drought Monitor Categories
    Value Map Hex Color Description
    D0 - Abnormally Dry #ffff00 Abnormally Dry Abnormally Dry (D0) indicates a region that is going into or coming out of drought. View typical impacts by state.
    D1 - Moderate Drought #fcd37f Moderate Drought Moderate Drought (D1) is the first of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
    D2 - Severe Drought #fa0 Severe Drought Severe Drought (D2) is the second of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
    D3 - Extreme Drought #e60000 Extreme Drought Extreme Drought (D3) is the third of four drought categories (D1–D4), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.
    D4 - Exceptional Drought #730000 Exceptional Drought Exceptional Drought (D4) is the most intense drought category, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. View typical impacts by state.

    Main Stats
    46%
    of Kansas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
    0%
    of New Mexico is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
    9%
    of Oklahoma is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
    2%
    of Texas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought

    U.S. Drought Monitor

    • 41% of the region is in drought (D1 or worse), a 24% decrease from 3 months ago
    • 8% of the region is experiencing Extreme (D3) drought or worse:
      • Kansas—46% of the state
      • New Mexico—0%
      • Oklahoma—9%
      • Texas—2%
    • 2% of the region is experiencing Exceptional (D4) drought
      • 17% of Kansas is now in D4 status and is currently the largest percentage in D4 of any U.S. state.
      • In a 4-week span, parts of the Texas Panhandle region experienced a 3-class improvement in drought category based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
    • Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since August 2019.
    • Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since June 2016.

    4-Week U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map

    Large swaths of the Southern Plains saw drought improvements over the past four weeks. The Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and southwestern Texas saw 2- to 4-category improvements since May 9.
    U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map for the Southern Plains, showing where drought/dryness have improved (green to blue hues) or worsened (yellow to brown hues) from May 9 to June 6, 2023. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

    Recent Conditions

    May Temperature and Precipitation Percentiles

    • Much of the region, including northern Texas, western Oklahoma, northeastern New Mexico, and southwestern Kansas, has received monthly precipitation above the 90th percentile for May.
    • Amarillo, Texas, had its third wettest May on record and wettest since 2015. 

    Map of the Southern Plains showing May mean temperature percentiles. May temperatures were near average for the month.

    Map of the Southern Plains showing May precipitation percentiles. Much of the region, including northern Texas, western Oklahoma, north eastern New Mexico and southwestern Kansas, has received monthly precipitation above the 90th percentile for May.
    Mean temperature percentiles (top) and precipitation percentiles (bottom) across the Southern Plains for May 2023. Source: GridMET, Climate Engine.

    Calendar Year to Date Temperature and Precipitation Percentiles 

    • 2023 began very dry across most of the Southern Plains with parts of southwestern Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles seeing precipitation within the bottom 10% of historical records by the end of March. Precipitation through May was large enough that these same regions are now seeing precipitation totals within the top 90% of historical records.
    • The prolonged dry spell over Central Texas, around the Edwards Plateau region, has experienced some relief, but year-to-date precipitation remains within the bottom 30% of historical records.

    Map of the Southern Plains showing year to date mean temperature percentiles. Most of the region has had near-average temperatures over the year so far, the gulf coast being the primary exception.

      Map of the Southern Plains showing Year to date precipitation percentiles. Despite the dry start to the year, May rainfall was enough that the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle regions show above the 90th percentile precipitation for the year.
      Mean temperature percentiles (top) and precipitation percentiles (bottom) across the Southern Plains for the calendar year to date (January 1–April 2, 2023). Source: GridMET, Climate Engine.

      Topsoil Moisture Conditions: April 2 vs. June 4

      From April 2 to June 4, Kansas went from 73% topsoil moisture rated short to very short, to 40%. Oklahoma and Texas also saw improvements in topsoil moisture, going from 63% to 8% and 72% to 19% rated short to very short, respectively.
      Topsoil moisture rated short to very short for the Southern Plains for the week ending April 2, 2023 (top) and June 6, 2023 (bottom). Numbers in brackets indicate the change from the previous week. Source: USDA.

      Southern Plains Drought in the News

      Usual Summer Precipitation

      Late Spring and Early Summer Usually See the Most Rain

      • May and June are usually the wettest months of the year for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
      • Summer months can act as a “reset” on drought conditions in average to above-average seasons.

      Kansas Monthly Average Precipitation

      Mean precipitation by month for Kansas over 1991-2020. Annual mean is 31.16 inches, with 2.88 inches for April, 4.58 inches for May, and 4.31 inches for June.
      Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Kansas based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

      Oklahoma Monthly Average Precipitation

      Mean precipitation by month for Oklahoma over 1991-2020. The annual mean is 36.58 inches, with 3.60 inches for April, 5.01 inches for May, and 4.46 inches for June.
      Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Oklahoma based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

      Texas Monthly Average Precipitation

      Mean precipitation by month for Texas over 1991-2020. The annual mean is 33.84 inches, with 2.58 inches for April, 3.91 inches for May, and 3.56 inches for June.
      Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Texas based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

      Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks

      June 2023 Outlook

      The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for June shows: 

      • Temperature: There are equal odds of above- or below-normal temperatures for June for most of the Southern Plains. 
      • Precipitation: Odds favor a wet month for western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and eastern New Mexico for June.

      June 2023 Temperature Outlook

      There are equal odds of above or below normal temperature for June for most of the Southern Plains.
      Monthly temperature outlook for June 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

      June 2023 Precipitation Outlook

      Odds favor a wet month for western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and eastern New Mexico for June.
      Monthly precipitation outlook for June 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

      3-Month Outlook for June–August 2023

      Seasonal outlooks for June–August 2023 show a warmer-than-normal season ahead for the Southern Plains region. There is an equal chance of above- or below-normal precipitation for the season.

      Seasonal Temperature Outlook: June–August 2023

      From June to August 2023, odds favor above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains.
      Three-month temperature outlook for June–August 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

      Seasonal Precipitation Outlook: June–August 2023

      From June to August 2023, most of the Southern Plains has equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.
      Three-month precipitation outlook for June–August 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

      Seasonal Drought Outlook for June–August 2023

      Drought in western Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas is forecast to improve through summer with some complete removal of drought around the fringes of the current drought-affected areas of the Southern Plains. 

      3-Month U.S. Drought Outlook

      Drought is forecast to improve through August 2023 in the Southern Plains, with some areas of drought removal.
      U.S. seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to persist, improve, develop, or be removed from June 1 to August 30, 2023. Issued May 31, 2023. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

      Long-Range Climate Guidance: Fall & Winter 2023

      • El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.
      • Each El Niño has impacted the Southern Plains weather differently, but on average, El Niño usually means a-wetter than-normal summer for western Kansas, and a cooler and wetter fall and winter for Oklahoma and Texas.
      A bar graph where each bar represents an overlapping 3-month period and the height of the bars represent the percent chance of El Niño, neutral or La Niña. El Niño has an 89% change in June-July-August.
      Official NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO probabilities issued May 2023. Source: Colombia Climate School: International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
      A map of the United States showing the percent increase in risk of extreme wet weather for November through January in years when an El Niño pattern was present in the Pacific. There in an increased chance of extreme wet weather for the southern states.
      Wintertime risk of extreme precipitation in the U.S. related to ENSO. Source: NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory.

      State-Based Conditions and Impacts

      Kansas

      • Recent rainfall has led to improving conditions across the state, but many areas are still below normal for the growing season and year thanks to drier-than-normal conditions in early spring.  As of June 6, only two of the nine climate divisions are running above normal for the year (northwest and southwest). Annual precipitation for the state is at 82% of normal, and 89% since the start of the growing season (April 1).
      • As of the June 8 U.S. Drought Monitor update, 17% of Kansas remains in D4 status, the most severe drought category. This number was as high as 46% in late April. Only 9% of the state is drought-free.   he composite Drought Severity and Coverage Index has been over 300 for 38 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in a decade.
      Recent rainfall has led to improving conditions across the state, but many areas are still below normal for the growing season and year thanks to drier than normal conditions in early spring.
      30-day departures from normal precipitation as of 11 AM CDT on June 7, 2023 at the Kansas Mesonet sites.  The western two-thirds of the state have had above normal precipitation, particularly in northwest Kansas. Source: Kansas Mesonet.

      Oklahoma

      • Heavy rains across much of western Oklahoma over the last 60 days has led to significant drought reduction, especially in short-term drought impacts. 
      • Much of western Oklahoma has seen surpluses of 3–5 inches, with some isolated surplus amounts exceeding 6 inches, through the last 60 days. 
      • Eastern Oklahoma has not fared as well, with deficits of 3–5 inches across much of that region of the state.
      • Northeastern Oklahoma has seen deficits exceeding 7 inches since early April. 
      In the past 60 days, much of western Oklahoma has seen surpluses of 3-5 inches, with some isolated precipitation surplus amounts exceeding 6 inches, through the last 60 days.
      60-day rainfall accumulation (inches) across Oklahoma through June 8, 2023. Source: Oklahoma Mesonet.

      Texas

      • Wildfire activity was suppressed in western Texas by the May rains. The upcoming summer wildfire season typically has more ignitions but smaller fires.     
      • Water storage for South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley has inched upward. Both Amistad and Falcon have more water than this time last year.
      • The extended wet weather in the Panhandle and High Plains made field work difficult in many areas.  Many farmers lost their window of opportunity to plant insurable cotton.
      • Statewide, reservoirs across Texas are 77.3% full. This is about seven percentage points below the long-term average. Climatologically, reservoir levels are expected to begin declining over the next month.
       map showing the percent full of each substantial reservoir in Texas. Monitored water supply reservoirs are 77.3% full.
      Reservoirs in the eastern part of Texas are full or nearly so, while most reservoirs in western Texas are less than half full.  Figure by the Texas Water Development Board.

      For More Information

      Prepared By

      Joel Lisonbee
      NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System; CIRES/CU Boulder

      Gary McManus
      Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

      Matt Sittel
      Kansas Assistant State Climatologist, Kansas State University

      John Nielsen-Gammon
      Texas State Climatologist, Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
      Southern Regional Climate Center

      Alison Tarter
      Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
      Southern Regional Climate Center

      William (BJ) Baule
      Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University

      Southern Regional Climate Center

      Victor Murphy
      National Weather Service

      Special Thanks

       

      This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.