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An summary of an assessment of operational and experimental forecast system skill and reliability in the Missouri River Basin.
For the study, NOAA operational and experimental modeling systems were analyzed for December 2010 precipitation forecasts for the winter (January-February-March) and spring (April-May-June) of 2011. Likewise, December 2011 precipitation forecasts for 2012 winter and spring were analyzed. These ‘retrospective’ forecasts were compared to actual observations for just the Upper Missouri River Basin, for just the Lower Missouri River Basin, and for the entire Missouri River Basin.