The Northern Plains drought started in the spring and summer of 2017 and sparked widespread wildfires and compromised water resources, leading to the destruction of property, livestock losses, and reduced agricultural production. These impacts were felt in South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, by the tribes of the Northern Plains, and in the Canadian Prairies. NIDIS and partners will be looking back at the 2017 drought through two lenses: how can we improve drought early warning and how can we improve preparedness and response to lessen the impact of drought.

Background: The 2017-2018 Drought in the Southwest

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s drought severity designations, “Abnormally Dry” conditions crept into the Southwest region in October 2017 and deepened into widespread “Moderate Drought” in November 2017. The region was in “Severe Drought” by January 2018; “Extreme Drought” by March 2018; and “Exceptional Drought” by May 2018. The “Exceptional Drought” lingered in the region until January 2019. In 2018, the region experienced more than 45 weeks in drought.

This assessment is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) response to a request by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) for an evaluation of the causes, predictability, and historical context of the 2017 United States Northern Great Plains drought. This assessment was led by a team of weather and climate experts from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory’s Physical Sciences Division and its Cooperative Institute located at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The 2017 drought was a rapid-onset event for northeast Montana, the Dakotas, and the Canadian Prairies during the spring and summer of 2017. It was the worst drought to impact the U.S. Northern Plains in decades and it decimated crops across the region, resulting in $2.6 billion in agricultural losses in the U.S. alone, not including additional losses in Canada. The unique circumstances of this drought created an opportunity to evaluate and improve the efficacy of drought-related coordination, communication, and management within the region in preparation for future droughts.

NIDIS requires evaluation of its pilots in order to determine whether efforts should move from the prototype stage to fully-fledged regional drought early warning information systems (DEWS). The results of evaluation directly inform that process and future improvements in NIDIS.

Between 2016 and 2018, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Southern Plains Climate Hub led a project to assess the impacts of the recent historic 2016 and 2018 wildfires on the Southern Plains.

This Climate.gov feature highlights that the Ogallala Aquifer (which underlies parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming) is drying. This will likely be one of the most pressing issues facing water availability in the Southern Plains regions in the coming decades.

A science assessment by a subgroup of the NOAA Drought Task Force. Recognizing the sensitivity of likely impacts on California winter precipitation to El Niño intensity, and also recognizing the spread of possible outcomes even for a very strong El Niño, the outlook must be expressed probabilistically.

From Too Much to Too Little provides an assessment of the 2012 central U.S. drought.