Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for December 2025–February 2026. Dated March 2026.

Winter temperatures ranged from above to below normal from west to east across the Midwest. This general west-to-east pattern persisted across all three winter months. The Midwest had its 7th driest winter (December to February) on record, with region wide precipitation just 61% of normal. 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for September–November 2025. Dated December 2025.

The Midwest had its 6th warmest fall on record, with average temperatures across the region ranging from near to slightly above normal in the east and up to 4°F above normal in the west. Fall precipitation for the Midwest totaled 6.65 inches, which was 2.41 inches below normal, or 73 percent of normal. 

Focusing on the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) long-term Seasonal Drought Outlook, this William M. Lapenta NOAA student internship project aimed to address the complexities of communicating uncertainty and provide recommendations on improving communications to best support agricultural producers. This project focused on the process of communicating outlooks to the agricultural sector through the lens of agricultural intermediaries, such as agricultural extension staff and state climatologists.

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for June–August 2025. Dated September 2025.

Average summer temperatures were 1.1°F above normal for the Midwest. More noteworthy were the record and near-record warm minimum temperatures, particularly in June and July. Drought and dryness affected the northern half of the region to start summer. Above-normal rainfall improved conditions region-wide by mid-summer, but dryness and drought rapidly expanded across the lower Midwest during the last half of summer.

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for March–May 2025. Dated June 2025.

Spring temperatures were above normal across the entire region, with the greatest departures from normal across Minnesota. Overall, the Midwest tied for the 13th warmest spring on record. Spring precipitation was near normal for the region, with notable wetness across the far southern Midwest and northern Michigan. Kentucky had its 4th wettest spring since 1895.