Southwest Drought and Wildfire Summer Outlook Webinar

Welcome

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Drought Update and Outlook

Speaker: Andrea Bair, National Weather Service Western Region

• Current tropical sea surface temperatures firmly reflect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions.
• ENSO-neutral conditions are favored during the summer months, with a 74% chance during June–August. Chances for ENSO-neutral exceed 50% for August–October.
  • Follow ENSO updates from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
• It is not uncommon to have 2 (or 3) years of back-to-back La Niña events.
  • A return to La Niña this year is possible, but ENSO-neutral remains the most likely scenario for the rest of the year.
• Large portions of the Southwestern U.S. will receive helpful early June precipitation.
  • While this is welcome moisture, it is not the start of the Southwest Monsoon.
  • Find more information on the season ahead at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

North American Monsoon System and the Southwest U.S.

Speaker: Mike Crimmins, Professor & Extension Specialist, University of Arizona

• There are mixed signals for the onset of the Southwest Monsoon.
  • An unsettled weather pattern in early June will bring some rain, but this is not the monsoon.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center notes an active Madden-Julian Oscillation through the end of June. This could strengthen the subtropical ridge across the Southwest, supporting an on time monsoon onset. (The development of the subtropical ridge of high pressure near the Four Corners region in the Southwest often initiates monsoon activity.)
• Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of California are slightly above average for early June.
  • Warm sea surface temperatures are important for ‘gulf surges’ of moisture in the desert Southwest.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an outlook for below-average eastern Pacific hurricane activity. These storms can be sources of moisture later in the season.
• Overall, limited signals point to either a wetter or drier upcoming monsoon…we will have to wait and see!
• Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts
• Climate Assessment for the Southeast (CLIMAS) Podcasts
• A monsoon-focused drought status update will be released later in June by NIDIS to provide updated conditions and outlooks for the Southwest.

Southwest Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

Speaker: Jim Wallmann, National Interagency Coordination Center Predictive Services, Bureau of Land Management

• Previous conditions:
  • Winter 2024–2025 was warm and dry for the Southwest U.S. (central Nevada and central Utah and southward).
  • May had average- to above-average temperatures with rapid snowmelt.
  • Fine fuel load is high over northern California, Nevada, and Utah.
• Fire outlooks:
  • The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) issues monthly outlooks for significant wildland fire potential.
  • A dry winter sets up Arizona/New Mexico for an active June.
  • California will be active from the drier winter, abundant grass in low elevations, and warm/dry spring.
  • View more information on the NIFC Wildland Fire Outlooks.

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA/NIDIS

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