Summer 2025 Drought and Fire Outlook Webinar for the Great Plains

Welcome

Speaker: Joel Lisonbee, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)/University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Drought Update and Outlook

Speaker: Dr. Eric Hunt, University of Nebraska Assistant Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology

• 60-day precipitation was above normal for the Southern Plains, southwest North Dakota, and northwest South Dakota.
• Current tropical sea surface temperatures firmly reflect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions.
• ENSO-neutral conditions are favored during the summer months, with a 74% chance during June–August. Chances for ENSO-neutral exceed 50% for August–October.
  • Follow ENSO updates from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
• The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlooks for July–September call for:
  • Above-average temperatures across the Great Plains
  • Below-average precipitation for the Northern Plains
  • Equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation for the Southern Plains
  • Drought is likely to develop and expand for the Northern Plains and persist in central and southern Texas.

Summer 2025 Great Plains Fire Outlook

Speaker: Chip Redmond, Assistant Meteorologist & Mesonet Manager at Kansas State University

• When discussing fire potential, we have to consider weather—the parameter that changes the most—and fuel—dependent upon the weather.
  • Early greenup has been fueled by warmer-than-normal temperatures and (some) areas of above-normal moisture. In May, recent clouds and cooler-than-normal weather slowed growth in the Central Plains. Further north, conditions remain conducive for growth.
  • Additionally, soil moisture profiles across much of the High Plains have increased and will continue to fuel potential above-normal grass loading.
• Summer is when large fire activity typically peaks in the North Central U.S. This is when fuels can cure rapidly and ignition potential is highest.
  • Both a weak La Niña this spring and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) suggest a drier-than-normal summer.
  • Monsoonal pattern in the U.S. Southwest will likely result in:
    • Limited wetting rains in the North-central U.S.
    • Increased fire ignitions from dry lightning in the High Plains.
• The combination of above-normal grass/fine fuels across much of the region with a potential increase in dry lightning typically yields more fire activity. Timely moisture is imperative to offset the warm/dry forecast and limit fuels drying out.
• Fire outlooks:
  • The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) issues monthly outlooks for significant wildland fire potential.
  • NIFC is calling for above-normal significant fire potential for portions of the Northern Plains through September.
  • Increased wildland fire potential is present in Texas and Oklahoma through August.

Closing

Speaker:  Joel Lisonbee, CIRES/CU Boulder, NOAA/NIDIS

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