No Drought in Puerto Rico or St. Croix; Moderate Drought (D1) Continues in St. Thomas & St. John

As the dry season continues, drought is expected to persist and develop in the U.S. Virgin Islands

Key Points

Regional: Drier than normal conditions persisted in the U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of Puerto Rico. Moderate Drought (D1) is present on Saint Thomas and Saint John in the Virgin Islands, while Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are observed in Saint Croix.
Puerto Rico Impacts: In the past two months, rainfall was consistent and not excessive for farm and forest operations across much of Puerto Rico. Somewhat dry conditions in the Caguas area impacted farms without irrigation, while in southwestern Puerto Rico, recent rain was not sufficient to improve persistent dry pasture conditions that the Lajas region experienced throughout 2025. Ranchers in nearby Cabo Roja report sufficient rain and green pastures.
U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) Impacts: All three islands are experiencing high winds, which are drying out soil moisture and impacting some specialty and fruit tree farmers. While sporadic rain is still occurring, it was not enough to permeate the soil and improve groundwater levels. Impacts of soil erosion in St. Croix and St. Thomas are ongoing.
Looking ahead: Models favor near-normal precipitation in February through April across the northeastern Caribbean. Chances are also greater for warmer than normal temperatures. As the dry season continues in the islands, drought is also predicted to persist across St. Thomas and St. John, and develop on St. Croix. No drought is expected to develop across Puerto Rico in the next three months.
New Resource! Visit the archive of weekly Puerto Rico drought reports developed by the Puerto Rico Scientific Drought Committee (2019 to present).

See below for additional details on current conditions, impacts (including streamflow and soil moisture), and outlooks.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Caribbean | January 27, 2026

Current Map

U.S. Drought Monitor map for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as of January 27, 2026. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

The map uses 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor

Data valid: 01/27/26

Learn More

This update is based on data available as of 5:00 p.m. AT on Tuesday, January 27, 2026. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Drought and Climate Conditions

Drier than normal conditions persisted in the U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of east, southeast and northwest Puerto Rico. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Moderate Drought (D1) is present on St. Thomas and St. John. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are present in St. Croix. Other areas of Puerto Rico received heavy rainfall at times, preventing dryness and drought from developing.
Dry conditions decreased overall in Puerto Rico over the last two months. In late November and early December 2025, 49% of Puerto Rico was Abnormally Dry (D0), in regions along the north, interior and southwest of Puerto Rico. As the dry season progressed, rainfall became widespread, reducing the Abnormally Dry (D0) coverage to nearly 15% and preventing drought from developing in mid- to late January.
In northeast Puerto Rico, some sectors experienced water supply shortages as lakes and small water-intakes were not able to fill. In the southeast, underground wells are not recharging, while soils and vegetation dried out. Similar conditions appear in the northwest, where rainfall has been around 50% of normal in the last 60 days .
Other areas of Puerto Rico were considerably wetter than normal. Predominantly northeast winds and local climate and topography contributed to concentrated afternoon showers along west and southwest Puerto Rico, with some areas receiving a rainfall surplus of nearly 200% over the last 120 days.
In the U.S. Virgin Islands, intermittent rains prevented further development of drought. However, high winds contributed to quickly drying soils in some areas.

Puerto Rico’s Fall and Early Winter Were Wet in the West and South-Southwest, But Dry Elsewhere

This map shows rainfall was well above normal along the west and south-southwest of Puerto Rico. Other areas in Puerto Rico observed precipitations well below normal. — 60-day rainfall (inches) departure from normal. Valid January 26, 2026. Yellow, orange, and red hues indicate below-normal rainfall. Green, blue, and purple hues indicate above-normal rainfall. Source: NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service.

Impacts for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Agricultural Impacts

Report your Impacts: To report the effects of dry conditions on your farm projects for future Drought Updates, use the Drought Condition Monitoring Observations and Reports (CMOR) tool or join the Caribbean Climate Hub reporting chat on WhatsApp.
Puerto Rico:
- Central interior region (Aguas Buenas, Caguas, Barranquitas, Orocovis, Naranjito): Farmers report consistent, but not excessive rainfall, allowing fieldwork and promoting growth of fruit trees. Some farmers in a small pocket in the Caguas region experienced dry conditions since November, which stressed bean plants, and affected germination rates and transplant activities.
- Southwest region (Lajas): In Lajas, a rancher reported the previous year was marked by prolonged dry conditions. While substantial rainfall occurred at the end of November, it was insufficient for adequate pasture growth. Since then, there was minimal rainfall, leading to persistent dryness and limited plant growth in pastures. The ranchers anticipate that without a significant increase in precipitation, drought impacts will likely develop by March. Conversely, a rancher in nearby Cabo Rojo reported abundant rainfall and no recent issues related to drought. Pastures in this area remain green, and drought has not impacted his land in recent years.
- No drought impacts were reported in the Northern region (Barceloneta, Ciales, Manatí); Northeast region (Canovanas, Fajardo); East region (Las Piedras); Southern region (Coamo); or Western region (Las Marías, Mayagüez, San Sebastián, Lares).
U.S. Virgin Islands:
- St. Thomas: Recent rains allowed most vegetation to bounce back and fill ponds. Livestock and poultry farmers have access to feed. Guinea grass is drying quickly due to high and persistent winds. Soil conditions on farms are beginning to show signs of distress. Farmers report rain does not permeate the soil, but rather becomes runoff. Bordeaux farmers repeatedly report some roads are still impassable due to erosion. Groundwater levels are not showing many gains.
- St. John: Row and specialty crop farmers report intermittent rain and ongoing high, sporadic winds that are affecting soil moisture. Most are prepping land, planting specialty crops, microgreens, fruit trees, and quick crops to keep production up. Growers are closely watching bananas for fungus issues. Farmers also report some roads remain impassable due to erosion.
- St. Croix: While recent rains brought some relief, farmers are still dealing with erosion and soil loss. Farmers stated sporadic rain gives a false sense of water access. Livestock farmers are rotating livestock and preparing for the summer, planting row and specialty crops, and establishing drought tolerant vetiver grass to address erosion.

Rains Are Occurring in Eastern Puerto Rico

This photo is showing a sky full of dark clouds over a green farm in eastern Puerto Rico. — Typical cloudy conditions in the mountains of San Lorenzo in eastern Puerto Rico. Photo by Jorge L. Alicea, December 24, 2025 in barrio Florida in San Lorenzo, Puerto Rico.

Ponds Are Not Full on St. Thomas

This photo is showing two ponds on a farm in St. Thomas that are mostly, but not completely, full. — Greenridge Guavaberry Farm, on the island of St Thomas, shows pond water loss on January 14, 2026. Photo by Royce Creque.

St. John Is Getting Rain and Wind

This photo is showing the waters and islands on St. John. A bay with various bright shades of blue in the foreground, green, forested islands appear in the background.

St. Croix Vegetation Is Showing Signs of Dryness

A landscape view of Lang's Peak, St. Croix, depicting a green farm with noticeable, irregular patches of brown, drying vegetation. The browning indicates vegetation stress due to warm, windy conditions. — This photo of Lang’s Peak, on St. Croix, shows signs of vegetation distress from warm, windy conditions. Photo by Mike Morgan on January 24, 2026.

Puerto Rico Streamflow and Soil Moisture Impacts

7-day average streamflows are below to much below normal in the east and interior, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Most other streams are near normal, or even above-normal (Rio Rosario and Rio Guajataca) to near record-high (Rio Guanajibo) in the southwest.
Dry soils expanded along most of the southern plains, northwest plains, and the eastern interior. Wet soils are observed across the extreme east, east-southeast, and in the west-southwest.

Streamflow Levels Are Mixed Across Puerto Rico

This map shows that the 7-day average streamflows show mixed signals along the eastern interior, with some streams running near normal to near record high, and others below normal. A few streams located in Ponce, Arecibo, Utuado and Toa Alta are running much below normal. In the west, Rio Guanajibo is running high. — This map shows 7-day average streamflow conditions compared to historical conditions for the same time frame in previous years. 7-day Average Streamflow conditions are from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) river gage network, valid January 26, 2026. View information on groundwater levels along the South Coast of Puerto Rico, or view current USVI groundwater conditions. Source: U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch. Map from Drought.gov Puerto Rico page.

Root Zone Soil Saturation

This map shows drier than normal soils along the eastern interior, from Juncos and Gurabo southwestward toward Coamo, and all across the southern plains, from Cabo Rojo to portions of Patillas. Dry soils are also observed in the northwest, from Aguada to Arecibo. In contrast, wet soils are currently observed in the east, from portions of Patillas toward Rio Grande, and in the west from northern Ponce toward northern Cabo Rojo. — The latest assessment of root zone soil saturation for Puerto Rico. Blue hues indicate wetter soils, while orange and red hues indicate drier soils. Valid January 25, 2026. Source: PRAGWATER.

Vegetation Health Index

This map shows favorable vegetation conditions along most of the interior, from Aibonito to Hormigueros. Unfavorable conditions are present in portions of the eastern interior, and extreme northwest coast. — The Vegetation Health Index for Puerto Rico, valid January 19, 2026. Values below 40 (pink/orange shades) indicate different levels of vegetation stress, and losses of crop and pasture production might be expected. Values above 60 (green/blue shades) indicate favorable conditions. Source: NOAA STAR. Map from Drought.gov Puerto Rico page.

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble favors near-normal precipitation for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for the period of February to April 2026. There is a 70% chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures.
As the dry season continues in the northeastern Caribbean islands, drought is forecast to persist across St. Thomas and St. Croix, while it will likely develop onSt. Croix. No drought is expected to develop across Puerto Rico, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s current Seasonal Drought Outlook.

Normal Precipitation and Above-Normal Temperatures Are Expected for the Islands for the Next Three Months

Precipitation is expected to be near normal for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from February to April 2026.

Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist from February-April 2026 in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. — Top: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) favors near-normal precipitation through the spring for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Bottom: Temperatures are likely to remain above normal over the next three months. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center NMME, valid February-April 2026.

Additional Resources

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices:

U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov):

USDA Caribbean Climate Hub:

Archive of weekly Puerto Rico drought records developed by the Puerto Rico Scientific Drought Committee
Drought and disaster assistance resources for tropical forestry and agriculture
Caribbean Drought Learning Network

Southeast Regional Climate Center: Quarterly Climate Impact and Outlook Reports (December 2025), which includes Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands.

Prepared By

Emanuel Rodríguez-González
NOAA National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Juan

William A. Gould & Nora L. Alvarez Berrios
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Caribbean Climate Hub, USDA Forest Service Research and Development

Christina Chanes
University of the Virgin Islands

Meredith Muth
NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Héctor J. Jiménez
University of Puerto Rico Office of Climatology

Elliot Sosa
U.S. Geological Survey Caribbean–Florida Water Science Center (CFWSC)

Brad Rippey
USDA Office of the Chief Economist

Special Thanks

Puerto Rico Reporting Input: Thanks to Café Xiojana, Hacienda Terruño, Hacienda Chocolat, Finca Gonzalez, and De Mi Tierra A Mi Pueblo. Special thanks to agronomists, extension agents, researchers, volunteers, ranchers, and farmers: Adalberto Franqui, Jorge L. Alicea, Silmarie Crespo-Velez, Harry Ramirez, and others.

USVI Reporting Input: Several individuals contributed to this report, and we acknowledge the following for their support: the farming community across the USVI, UVI faculty, staff, and collaborators of the UVI Department of Chemical and Physical Sciences, UVI Etelman Observatory, UVI Agricultural Experiment Station, VI Department of Agriculture, as well as the USDA Office Chief Economist, National Parks Service in St. Croix and St John, VI Department of Planning and Natural Resources, USDA Farm Service Agency, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Services in St Croix, Coral Bay Community Council, and the many volunteer drought reporters, volunteers, and farmers from across the territory.

About This Report

This drought update is issued in partnership between the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the University of the Virgin Islands. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands based on recent conditions and the upcoming three-month forecast. NIDIS is an interagency program within the Climate Program Office, which is part of NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

NIDIS and its partners will issue these updates every two months. Subscribe for these U.S. Caribbean drought updates here.