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Regional Drought Update Date
April 6, 2023
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Drought Status Update

Southern Plains Drought Status Update


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue further drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Multi-Year Drought Impacting Western Kansas, Western Oklahoma, and Much of Texas

Key Points

  • Exceptional (D4) drought persists across southern Kansas (36% of the state), Oklahoma (13%), and Texas (4%).
  • Spring is usually the wettest time of the year, but drought in the Panhandle region is expected to remain into summer.
  • Severe fire danger will remain a frequent hazard for western Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas, and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through spring. In the Texas Panhandle, nearly 9,500 acres burned on Tuesday, April 4, due to extremely low humidities, winds gusting to 70 mph, and the long-term drought.
  • Expanding drought over Edwards Plateau, south-central Texas, and the region of the Edwards Aquifer (a water source for San Antonio and much of central Texas) has dropped well-water levels to the second lowest point on record.
  • The two largest reservoirs along the Rio Grande, Falcon Lake and Lake Amistad, are at their lowest levels since 1990 for this time of year, at 11% and 37% full respectively.
  • During the first 3 months of 2023, inflows into the Highland Lakes, which feed the Colorado River from the Texas Hill Country downstream, were only 12% of the median value over the past 80 years, with only 1952 and 1954 being less.
  • Winter wheat conditions as of April 2:
  • The Panhandle region has been experiencing frequent dust storms.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains | April 4, 2023

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Main Stats
52%
of Kansas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
4%
of New Mexico is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
38%
of Oklahoma is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
19%
of Texas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • 79% of the Southern Plains region is in drought (D1 or worse), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
  • 26% of the region is experiencing extreme (D3) drought or worse.
  • 11% of the region is experiencing exceptional (D4) drought.
    • 38% of Kansas is now in D4 status, which is currently the largest percentage of D4 of any U.S. state (Oklahoma is second at 15%).
  • Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since August 2019.
  • Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since June 2016.

Recent Precipitation and Temperature Conditions

  • Across Oklahoma, Interstate-44 divided the region, with above-normal precipitation in the southeast and below-normal precipitation in the northwest.
  • Parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma experienced the driest March on record.

Temperature and Precipitation Percentiles: March 2023

In March 2023, much of the Southern Plains saw near- or slightly below-normal temperatures, except for southern Texas, where temperatures were warmer than normal.

 Much of the region, including northern Texas, Oklahoma, north eastern New Mexico and southeastern Kansas, has received monthly precipitation below the 30th percentile.
Mean temperature percentiles (top) and precipitation percentiles (bottom) across the Southern Plains for March 2023. Source: GridMET, Climate Engine.
  • So far, this year has been very dry across most of the Southern Plains, with parts of southwestern Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles seeing precipitation within the bottom 10% of historical records for this time of the year.
  • Central Texas has also seen a prolonged dry spell this year. The Edwards Plateau region (south-central Texas) year-to-date precipitation is in the bottom 10% of historical records, and the year-to-date temperatures are in the highest 10% of historical records.

Temperature and Precipitation Percentiles: Calendar Year to Date

Much of the Southern Plains has had near to above normal temperatures from January 1 to April 2.

Since January 1, parts of southwestern Kansas, and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles seeing precipitation within the bottom 10% of historical records for this time of the year.
Mean temperature percentiles (top) and precipitation percentiles (bottom) across the Southern Plains for the calendar year to date (January 1–April 2, 2023). Source: GridMET, Climate Engine.

Drought Through Winter: December 2022–February 2023

  • A record-setting drought has been crippling agriculture in western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma through winter.
  • Winter temperatures: Overall, winter was warmer than average for the Southern Plains.
  • Winter precipitation: While both Kansas and Oklahoma state-wide precipitation was near average to a little above average for winter, this precipitation was not evenly distributed across each state. Parts of western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles had monthly rainfall in the lowest 10% of historical records.

Winter 2022–2023 Temperature and Precipitation Percentiles

Much of the Southern Plains has had persistently high temperatures over winter.

Parts of western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles had monthly rainfall in the lowest 10% of historical records.
Mean temperature percentiles (top) and precipitation percentiles (bottom) across the Southern Plains for winter 2022–2023 (December 1, 2022–February 28, 2023). Source: nClimGrid-Monthly, Climate Engine.

Topsoil Moisture Conditions

For Kansas, 73% of the state has low soil moisture, an increase of 19% from last year. For Oklahoma, 63% of the state has low soil moisture, an increase of 4% from last year. For Texas, 72% of the state has low soil moisture, which is 8% less than last year.
Topsoil moisture conditions across the U.S., showing the percent rated short to very short for the week ending April 2, 2023. Numbers in brackets indicate the change from the previous year. Source: USDA.

Southern Plains Drought in the News

How Will Drought Conditions Change Through Spring 2023?

Late Spring and Early Summer Usually See the Most Rain

  • May and June are usually the wettest months of the year for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
  • Summer months can act as a “reset” on drought conditions in average to above-average seasons.

Kansas Monthly Average Precipitation

Mean precipitation by month for Kansas over 1991-2020. Annual mean is 31.16 inches, with 2.88 inches for April, 4.58 inches for May, and 4.31 inches for June.
Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Kansas based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

Oklahoma Monthly Average Precipitation

Mean precipitation by month for Oklahoma over 1991-2020. The annual mean is 36.58 inches, with 3.60 inches for April, 5.01 inches for May, and 4.46 inches for June.
Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Oklahoma based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

Texas Monthly Average Precipitation

Mean precipitation by month for Texas over 1991-2020. The annual mean is 33.84 inches, with 2.58 inches for April, 3.91 inches for May, and 3.56 inches for June.
Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Texas based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks: April 2023

The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for April shows: 

  • Temperature: April is likely to be warmer than normal for Texas, Oklahoma, and southeastern Kansas. 
  • Precipitation: Odds favor a wet April for eastern Texas, with near equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation for the rest of the Southern Plains.

April 2023 Temperature Outlook

In April 2023, odds  favor above normal temperatures for the Southern Plains.
Monthly temperature outlook for April 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

April 2023 Precipitation Outlook

In April 2023, odds slightly favor above normal precipitation for eastern Texas, with near equal chances elsewhere.
Monthly precipitation outlook for April 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

3-Month Outlook for April–June 2023

Seasonal outlooks for April–June 2023 show a warmer than normal season ahead for the Southern Plains region. Precipitation is likely to be below normal for eastern New Mexico and western Texas, with near equal odds of above- or below-normal precipitation elsewhere in the Southern Plains. 

Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April–June 2023

From April to June 2023, odds favor above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains.
Three-month temperature outlook for April–June 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook: April–June 2023

From April to June 2023, odds favor below-normal precipitation in western Texas, New Mexico, the Oklahoma panhandle, and southwestern Kansas, with near equal chances elsewhere.
Three-month precipitation outlook for April–June 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Drought Outlook for April–June 2023

Drought in western Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas is forecast to persist through early summer with some improvement across the central parts of each of these states. 

3-Month U.S. Drought Outlook

Drought is forecast to persist in places where it is already present with some improvement and even removal in central Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
U.S. seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to persist, improve, develop, or be removed from April 1 to June 30, 2023. Issued March 31, 2023. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

State-Based Conditions and Impacts

Kansas

  • In Kansas, only two of the nine climate divisions are running above normal for the year (northeast and east central). All but one were above normal for the year prior to March; a very dry month (26% of normal statewide) led to the current deficits.
  • 16% of the state is drought free; this is an increase of 15% since the start of the year. Plentiful moisture in the northeast and east central areas earlier in the year led to the improvements.  
  • A total of 38% of the state is in exceptional drought (D4). The composite Drought Severity Coverage Index has been over 300 for 28 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in a decade.
  • Goodland in northwest Kansas has received 40.6 inches of snowfall since September 1. This is over a foot above normal. The frequent snow events in this part of the state kept this area much cooler than the remainder of the state. For the first three months of 2023, the average temperature in northwest Kansas was 2.5 degrees below normal.
It has been more than 100 days since most of eastern Kansas received 0.5 inch or more of precipitation.
Number of days since 0.50 inches or more of precipitation was recorded in a single day, as of April 6, 2023. Parts of southwest Kansas have gone over 8 months since 0.50 inch or more fell in a single day. Source: Kansas Mesonet.

Oklahoma

  • The rainfall disparity centered roughly along the Interstate 44 corridor continued to sharpen and intensify through the first 3 months of 2023. 
  •  Areas to the north and west of I-44 recorded 1–3 inches of rainfall in 2023, generally speaking, while areas to the south and east enjoyed totals of 9–15 inches or more. 
  • Wildfire danger remains particularly high across the northwestern half of the state where green up has been delayed by drought. 
  • The Oklahoma Mesonet site at Goodwell broke the record for all-time lowest annual precipitation total with 6.48 inches in 2022. The previous record was 6.53 inches at Regnier in 1956. Goodwell has received 0.6 inches through March 31 in 2023.
Areas to the north and west of I-44 recorded 1-3 inches of rainfall in 2023, generally speaking, while areas to the south and east enjoyed totals of 9-15 inches or more.
90-day rainfall accumulation (inches) across Oklahoma through April 5, 2023. Source: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Texas

  • Wildfire potential is forecasted to be high through the panhandle, plains, Trans Pecos, and western portion of the Hill Country. This is due to widespread critically dry vegetation and the likelihood of extreme fire weather. Currently, the Bent Willow fire north of Amarillo is estimated to be 8,500 acres with 30% containment.   
  • Water storage for South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley remains at record lows for the time of year. Amistad Reservoir is down to 37.4% full, and Falcon is down to 11.2% full. Both reservoirs are shared between the United States and Mexico.
  • The Highland Lake Reservoirs (Central Texas) are at the 3rd lowest value on record (period of record 1942 to present), while March 2023 was the 5th lowest March on record. San Marcos Springs at San Marcos remains at a record low, and Barton Springs at Austin is right on the edge of record low for the time of year.
  • Statewide, reservoirs across Texas are 74.6% full. This is about 10% below the long-term average.
12-month SPI Blend
12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) blend for Texas. Precipitation deficits over the past several months continue to be most severe in south-central Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Significantly above-normal precipitation continues to be restricted to portions of eastern, western, and far southern Texas.

For More Information

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System and CIRES/CU Boulder

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Matt Sittel
Kansas Assistant State Climatologist, Kansas State University

Alison Tarter
Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

William (BJ) Baule
Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University

Southern Regional Climate Center

Victor Murphy
National Weather Service

Special Thanks

 

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.