Conditions for Modesto, CA
(Stanislaus County)
Indicators are variables used to describe drought conditions (e.g., precipitation, temperature, streamflow, groundwater and reservoir levels, soil moisture, and snowpack). In order to get a complete picture of drought conditions, several drought indicators should be examined.
| Exceptional Wet | Extreme Wet | Severe Wet | Moderate Wet | Abnormal Wet | Neutral | Abnormal Dry | Moderate Drought | Severe Drought | Extreme Drought | Exceptional Drought |
| 0 percentile | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 95 | 98 100 |
Short-Term Drought Indicator Blend
These experimental drought blends integrate several key drought monitoring products and indices into a single short-term or long-term product, based on the methodology developed at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The blends are created using the Climate Engine tool, and apply the CPC weighting ratios to the high-resolution gridMET gridded research dataset.
The short-term blend combines PDSI, Z-Index, 1-month SPI, and 3-month SPI to estimate the overall short-term drought. This product is an example of current NIDIS-funded research.
The data are updated every 5 days, with a delay of 4 to 5 days to allow for data collection and quality control. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 (0-2) | #730000 |
| D3 (2-5) | #E60000 |
| D2 (5-10) | #FFAA00 |
| D1 (10-20) | #FCD37F |
| D0 (20-30) | #FFFF00 |
| (30-70) | #ffffff |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| W0 (70-80) | #AAFF55 |
| W1 (80-90) | #01FFFF |
| W2 (90-95) | #00AAFF |
| W3 (95-98) | #0000FF |
| W4 (98-100) | #0000AA |
Long-Term Drought Indicator Blend
These experimental drought blends integrate several key drought monitoring products and indices into a single short-term or long-term product, based on the methodology developed at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The blends are created using the Climate Engine tool, and apply the CPC weighting ratios to the high-resolution gridMET gridded research dataset.
The long-term blend combines PDSI, Z-Index, and 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year SPI to estimate the overall long-term drought. This product is an example of current NIDIS-funded research.
The data are updated every 5 days, with a delay of 4 to 5 days to allow for data collection and quality control. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 (0-2) | #730000 |
| D3 (2-5) | #E60000 |
| D2 (5-10) | #FFAA00 |
| D1 (10-20) | #FCD37F |
| D0 (20-30) | #FFFF00 |
| (30-70) | #ffffff |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| W0 (70-80) | #AAFF55 |
| W1 (80-90) | #01FFFF |
| W2 (90-95) | #00AAFF |
| W3 (95-98) | #0000FF |
| W4 (98-100) | #0000AA |
Evaporative Demand (EDDI) Forecast
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 2 weeks and 4 weeks from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 | #730000 |
| D3 | #E60000 |
| D2 | #FFAA00 |
| D1 | #FCD37F |
| D0 | #FFFF00 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near Normal | #ffffff |
| W0 | #AAFF55 |
| W1 | #01FFFF |
| W2 | #00AAFF |
| W3 | #0000FF |
| W4 | #0000AA |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| D4 | #730000 |
| D3 | #E60000 |
| D2 | #FFAA00 |
| D1 | #FCD37F |
| D0 | #FFFF00 |
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Near Normal | #ffffff |
| W0 | #AAFF55 |
| W1 | #01FFFF |
| W2 | #00AAFF |
| W3 | #0000FF |
| W4 | #0000AA |
Climate Prediction Center Drought Outlooks
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues Monthly and Seasonal Drought Outlooks each month.
The Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, improve, or be removed in the next month. Learn more.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, improve, or be removed in the next three months. Learn more.
| Value | Map Hex Color |
|---|---|
| Drought persists | #9B634A |
| Drought remains but improves | #DED2BC |
| Drought removal likely | #B2AD69 |
| Drought development likely | #FFDE63 |
| No drought present | #FFFFFF |
Historical Conditions for Stanislaus County
The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a national map released every Thursday, showing parts of the U.S. that are in drought. The USDM relies on drought experts to synthesize the best available data and work with local observers to interpret the information. The USDM also incorporates ground truthing and information about how drought is affecting people, via a network of more than 450 observers across the country, including state climatologists, National Weather Service staff, Extension agents, and hydrologists. Learn more.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is an index to characterize meteorological drought on a range of timescales, ranging from 1 to 72 months. The SPI is the number of standard deviations that observed cumulative precipitation deviates from the climatological average. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information produce the 9-month SPI values below on a monthly basis, going back to 1895. Learn more.
Tree-rings are used to extend the instrumental record of drought to over 2000 years. The Living Blended Drought Product (LBDP) is a recalibrated data series of June-July-August Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) values in the lower 48 U.S. states. This dataset blends tree-ring reconstructions and instrumental data to estimate the average summer PMDI values, which extend over 2000 years in some parts of the U.S. Learn more.
people in Stanislaus County are affected by drought
of people in Stanislaus County are affected by drought
driest May on record, over the past 128 years
driest year to date over the past 128 years (January-May 2022)