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April 25, 2024

Short-Term Drought Improvements in the Midwest, but Long-Term Deficits Remain—Leading to Increased Vulnerability to Drought

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Document Date
March 26, 2024
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Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Great Lakes Region for December 2023–February 2024. Dated March 2024.

Winter was 2°C (4°F) to more than 6°C (11°F) above normal.  The basin saw 78% of average precipitation for winter, with all basins but Ontario being dry.

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March 26, 2024
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Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for December 2023–January 2024. Dated March 2024.

Winter temperatures were 4-8°F above normal across the lower Midwest and up to 12°F
above normal across the upper Midwest. The Midwest, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and
Michigan had the warmest winter on record.  Winter precipitation was near average for the Midwest, oscillating between wet and dry across the region from month to month. Minnesota had a record-wet December. Illinois had its second driest February.

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Document Date
March 19, 2024
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Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Canadian and U.S. Prairies and High Plains for December 2023–February 2024, with an outlook for April–June 2024. Dated March 2023. 

The Prairies and High Plains saw warmer than normal temperatures, with the eastern half notably warmer than the rest of the region.  Much drier than normal conditions were observed across the region in the bordering states and provinces, including inland areas such as the northern Prairies, parts of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas.

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Document Date
December 22, 2023
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Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Canadian and U.S. Prairies and High Plains for September–November 2023, with an outlook for January–March 2024. Dated December 2023. 

The Prairies and High Plains generally experienced warmer fall conditions, except the area that borders Montana and the Dakotas. Precipitation was well below normal for much of the Prairies, with parts of central Alberta receiving less than 30% of its seasonal amount.

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December 22, 2023
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Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Great Lakes Region for September–November 2023. Dated December 2023.

Fall temperatures in the region were up to 2°C (4°F) above normal. The overall basin saw 69% of average precipitation with all lake basins being dry.

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Document Date
December 22, 2023
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Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for September–November 2023. Dated December 2023.

Fall temperatures were near normal in the east, with temperatures 1–3°F above normal in the west. Month-to-month, temperatures were near or above normal, with no notable areas of cooler temperatures. Fall precipitation was 70% of normal for the Midwest. Deficits of 4–8 inches were widespread across the lower Midwest, while areas around the Minnesota-Wisconsin border were up to 4 inches above normal for fall.

December 21, 2023

Drought Is Likely to Persist Across Portions of the Missouri River Basin with an El Niño Winter Ahead

December 7, 2023

Drought Is Likely to Persist Across the Midwest with an El Niño Winter Ahead

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Document Date
November 2, 2023
Document Description

This handout provides information on the typical EL Niño winter pattern; the El Niño outlook; potential winter and spring impacts; and comparisons of conditions during previous El Niño years for the Missouri River Basin region. Updated November 2023.

NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the U.S. Drought Portal.

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