The Midwest region regularly experiences precipitation extremes, both flood and drought. However, these extremes and their corresponding impacts are typically studied and communicated independently, without consideration of the compound impacts due to a rapid transition from one extreme to the other (this study will refer to this type of event as a rapid transition in extremes, or RTE).
NOAA’s National Water Model (NWM) predicts hydrologic information relevant to drought monitoring and forecasts at very high resolutions. Research is exploring how to use state-of-the-art NWM short-term forecasts of current hydrologic conditions as a proxy to monitor drought conditions. An experimental soil moisture drought monitoring capability is now being prototyped based on hourly, best available, quality-controlled NWM output.