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Regional Drought Update Date
June 16, 2022
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Drought Early Warning Update for the Midwest U.S.


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Potential for Rapid Intensification of Drought in the Midwest

Flash Drought Monitoring Resources

Heat Health Resources

Key Points

  • A record-breaking heat wave has been making its way across the central U.S. this week, with temperatures peaking in the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread temperatures from 90–100°F.
  • Above-normal temperatures are expected to continue through at least the end of June, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (Figure 1). Below-normal precipitation is also expected across much of the Midwest during this same time period (Figure 2).
  • While the Midwest region is currently almost entirely drought-free, there are some areas of concern that are abnormally dry (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri). In addition, portions of western Iowa remain in moderate to severe drought (D1–D2) (Figure 3). 
  • However, the forecasted hot and dry conditions will likely lead to the rapid intensification of drought conditions in portions of the Midwest over the next few weeks (Figure 4). This rapid intensification of drought is sometimes called "flash drought." Flash drought is set in motion by below-normal precipitation, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, winds, and/or solar radiation.
  • Potential impacts of the heat and rapid intensification of drought include: reduced moisture/drying soils for agriculture and lawns/gardens, human and animal health issues related to the heat, negative ecological impacts, increased potential for wildfire and stress on the energy system.
  • In the longer term, the outlooks are favoring the continuation of hot and dry conditions for most of the region into July, as well as the July–September time frame. As a result, the seasonal drought outlook indicates that drought development is likely over portions of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri, and persistence and further development in Iowa (Figure 5).
Main Stats
9.44%
of the Midwest is experiencing abnormally dry (D0) conditions or worse
1.05%
of the Midwest is in drought (D1 or worse)
Above-Normal
temperatures expected through at least the end of June

Figure 1. 8–14 Day Temperature Outlook (Valid June 24–30, 2022)

Odds favor above-normal temperatures across the Midwest from June 24-30, according to the Climate Prediction Center
8–14 day temperature outlook for June 24–30, 2022. The red shades represent areas with a greater chance for above-normal temperatures, blue shades represent areas with a greater chance for below-normal temperatures, and gray represents areas with a greater chance for near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Figure 2. 8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook (Valid June 24–30, 2022)

Odds favor near- or below-normal precipitation across most of the Midwest from June 24-30, according to the Climate Prediction Center
8–14 day precipitation outlook for June 24–30, 2022. The green shades represent areas with a greater chance for above-normal precipitation, brown shades represent areas with a greater chance for below-normal precipitation, and gray represents areas with a greater chance for near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Figure 3. U.S. Drought Monitor (June 14, 2022)

U.S. Drought Monitor map of the Midwest, showing drought conditions as of June 14, 2022
U.S. Drought Monitor map of the Midwest U.S., as of June 14, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country, which uses a five-category system, from Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions to Exceptional Drought (D4). Source: NDMC, NOAA, USDA.

Figure 4. 8–14 Day U.S. Hazards Outlook (Valid June 24–30, 2022)

The 8-14 day U.S. hazards outlook shows rapid onset drought risk and excessive heat for parts of the Midwest
8–14 day U.S. Hazards Outlook, valid for June 24–30, 2022. The brown areas show the potential for rapid onset drought risk. The red line shows the area at risk for excessive heat in the same time period. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Figure 5. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (June 16–September 30, 2022)

U.S. seasonal drought outlook for June 16 - September 30, 2022
U.S. seasonal drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to persist, improve, develop, or be removed from June 16–September 30, 2022. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Resources for Monitoring Flash Drought 

Heat Health Resources

For More Information

Prepared By

Molly Woloszyn
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Dennis Todey
USDA Midwest Climate Hub

Doug Kluck
NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information

Melissa Widhalm
Midwestern Regional Climate Center/Purdue University

Ray Wolf & Audra Bruschi
NOAA/National Weather Service

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Midwest U.S. based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.