California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: November 28, 2022

Welcome to the California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar

Speaker: Julie Kalansky, California-Nevada Adaptation Program (CNAP, a NOAA CAP/RISA team), CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

• Welcome to the November California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook webinar. 
• State and regional level drought information can be found on Drought.gov: California, Nevada, California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System.
• New Drought.gov features: Explore the ability to customize any map on Drought.gov, including adding boundary lines for tribal lands.

Drought and Climate Update and Outlook

Speaker: Dan McEvoy, CNAP, Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute

• The entire region is still in a drought that began in 2020.
• Early November storms were beneficial and brought snowpack, but this needs to continue throughout the winter and into the spring.
• A cold November may seem trivial, but it reduced evaporative demand, soil drying, mountain snowmelt, and fire danger.
• We need a well-above-average water year or several wet years in a row to bust drought and replenish reservoirs.
• The Climate Prediction Center's seasonal (December–February) outlook favors drier and warmer conditions for southern California-Nevada, mostly based on a continuing La Niña pattern.
• Every La Niña is different, and many other factors influence the presence of winter storms in the region.

Tools and Resources for Your Winter Toolbox

California-Nevada River Forecast Center

Speaker: Nathan Patrick, NOAA/National Weather Service's California-Nevada River Forecast Center

• California-Nevada River Forecast Center website
  • Ensemble products interactive map:
    • River/reservoir observations and deterministic and probabilistic forecasts 
    • Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
    • Observed precipitation (Quantitative Precipitation Estimate, QPE)
    • Snow data 
    • Download options: KML, XML, shapefiles, CSV, images
• Mobile website (navigate to Links > Mobile Website)
• About the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): Includes detailed documentation and informational videos

Forecast Products from CNAP and CW3E

Speaker: Julie Kalansky, CNAP, CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

• California-Nevada Adaptation Program (CNAP) resources
  • CNAP Water Storage Tracking
  • CA-NV Precipitation Tracking
• Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) resources
  • Atmospheric River Forecast Products 
  • Atmospheric River Landfall Tool
  • West Coast Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) Magnitude Plume Diagrams
  • Atmospheric River (AR) Scale: Ranking the strength of an AR, a combination of intensity and duration
  • CW3E Watershed Precipitation Forecast
  • Watershed Freezing Level
  • Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast Products

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Julie Kalansky, CNAP, CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

• Register now for the next webinar in this series on Monday, January 23, 2022.