Assessing Historical Flash Drought Indicator Performance across the United States
Flash droughts are characterized by unusually rapid drought intensification over several weeks. These severe drought conditions can come on quickly and impact the nation’s economy and natural environment. Research during this project will promote a deeper understanding of how climate non-stationarity—that is, how shifting environmental conditions cause the probability of extreme events to change rather than remain consistent over time—influences the perceived occurrence and severity of flash droughts across the United States. The team will then consider how this information could be tailored to support more effective management decisions.
The research will lead to a better understanding of how non-stationarity affects drought indicators and to the development of new flash drought monitoring tools that account for climate trends when assessing flash drought in different parts of the United States. By developing actionable drought-related information and strengthening partnerships, this project will advance drought adaptation, resilience, and mitigation efforts.
This research is part of the Fiscal Year 2026 NIDIS Coping with Drought research competition. For more information, please contact Britt Parker (britt.parker@noaa.gov).
Research Snapshot
Jason Otkin, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Mark Svoboda and Tonya Haigh, National Drought Mitigation Center/University of Nebraska–Lincoln;Yafang Zhong, University of Wisconsin–Madison
What to expect from this research
The research team has two main goals:
- Assess how the use of different statistical methods (e.g., different historical reference periods) to account for non-stationarity influences the perceived occurrence and severity of flash drought events. The team will conduct this analysis across different seasons, regions, and indicators, with the results used to improve flash drought monitoring capabilities.
- Engage the drought monitoring community to ensure study transparency and the develop usable monitoring tools. This will help the team determine criteria to maintain stakeholder trust in established drought indicators while incorporating new scientific understanding into those indicators. Overall, this will ensure the study best reflects flash drought and climate non-stationarity.
Overall, the research findings will help others select the most appropriate indicators for monitoring flash droughts and inform existing flash drought monitoring tools.
