Assessing How Low Precipitation Translates into Low Surface Water to Improve Drought Planning
Scientists at the University of Colorado Boulder will lead this project toquantify how atmospheric droughts (lower than normal precipitation) lead to land-surface drought conditions (lower than normal soil moisture or runoff), which impact agriculture, water supply, and industries that rely on surface water.
Water resource and agricultural managers are generally most impacted by land-surface drought. However, they often rely on more widely available atmospheric drought indices that are based on precipitation data, even though these indices may not reliably predict the impacts that matter most. Understanding the strength and timing of this process—the “drought cascade” from atmospheric drought to land-surface drought—will allow us to improve how well we can forecast drought impacts on a sub-seasonal time scale.
Earlier warning of drought impacts will benefit agriculture, water resource planning, and industries that rely on surface water. The project team will work with partners across the Western U.S. in these relevant sectors to evaluate the “drought cascade,” how precipitation deficits translate to later soil moisture and runoff deficits. This work will inform their early drought planning operations.
The team will also analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation across the Western U.S., and how these changes impact the drought cascade. By analyzing historical data and testing alternative reference periods for drought indices, the team aims to identify what drives observed changes in the drought cascade and implications for early warning. The team will develop this research in partnership with municipal water suppliers and regional agriculture researchers to ensure results will support operational drought planning in the West and, potentially, across the Lower 48 states.
This research is part of the Fiscal Year 2026 NIDIS Coping with Drought research competition. For more information, please contact Britt Parker (britt.parker@noaa.gov).
Research Snapshot
Dr. Nels Bjarke, Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado Boulder
Dr. Ben Livneh, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder
What to expect from this research
A nationwide assessment of the “drought cascade.” Analyses will assess how precipitation deficits translate to later soil moisture and runoff deficits across the contiguous United States using state of the art hydrology and meteorology datasets.
Improved drought early warning information. The team will estimate how often atmospheric drought leads to land-surface drought, how long the transition takes, and how relationships vary by season and region. Findings will identify drought indicators that may provide improved drought early warning for water management.
A better understanding of changing climate conditions. Historical comparisons will examine whether temperature trends, shifts in precipitation timing and phase, and changes to evapotranspiration impact the drought cascade from the atmosphere to the land surface.
A water supply planning case study. In partnership with municipal water suppliers in Colorado, researchers will examine how winter precipitation, snowpack conditions, temperatures, and seasonal outlooks provide earlier indications of spring and summer water supply risks.
Practical research products and shared methods. The team will connect national scale analyses with regional water management, co-develop water planning and agriculture partner case studies, and share findings and methods through scientific publications and public repositories. The results may inform future drought monitoring and early warning tools.
