Contextualizing Drought Severity Benchmarked to Multiple Time Periods
Drought is typically assessed by comparing current conditions to historical conditions. However, a changing climate is causing the probability of extreme events to change, a phenomenon known statistically as non-stationarity. Environmental non-stationarity makes it more challenging to assess and manage drought, as future conditions may no longer align with the past. Which historical period (“reference period”) you choose to compare to current conditions can impact how you assess drought severity.
This project will evaluate drought from 2000–2025 using three benchmarks reflecting past, present, and future conditions. These comparisons will help evaluate historical and recent drought responses, while identifying emerging needs for future water and drought management. Input from stakeholders, including state climatologists, water resource managers, and agricultural users will shape project outcomes. The project will provide actionable information to support communities responding to evolving drought risks and support more informed decision-making.
This research is part of the Fiscal Year 2026 NIDIS Coping with Drought research competition. For more information, please contact Britt Parker (britt.parker@noaa.gov).
Research Snapshot
Zhiying Li, Indiana University
Yelin Jiang, Jason E. Smerdon, and Richard Seager, Columbia University; Justin S. Mankin, Dartmouth College
What to expect from this research
The research team will:
- Develop three distinct benchmarks to contextualize drought and create weekly drought maps from 2000–2025 using these benchmarks. The team will measure drought using variables such as precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture from multiple datasets:
- Historical Benchmark, highlighting conditions relative to the multidecadal past
- Recent Benchmark, reflecting drought relative to recent experience
- Future Benchmark, contextualizing drought against the near-term future.
- Assess how drought severity and timing shift across regions using these benchmarks. The research team will evaluate drought severity across benchmarks and analyze how classifications vary in key areas for resource management..
- Provide code and methods and seek input from regional stakeholders throughout the project. This will enable real-world applications to support communities adapting to evolving drought conditions. Overall, this will enhance preparedness, mitigation, and resilience in sectors like agriculture and water resources.
