Understanding Regional Drivers of Drought in a Non-Stationary Climate and Improving Drought Indicators for Agroforestry in the Pacific Islands
When climate conditions (temperature, precipitation) change over time and are not stable, we call this a "non-stationary" climate. This complicates our ability to assess and predict droughts. As droughts in Hawai’i and the Pacific Islands continue to worsen, people need a better understanding of what drives drought to improve seasonal forecasts and reduce agricultural losses. This region also has limited high-quality meteorological station data, which makes it challenging to identify and respond to drought.
The proposed research aims to improve our understanding of what drives and impacts drought in this region to improve drought preparedness in Hawai‘i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).
This research is part of the Fiscal Year 2026 NIDIS Coping with Drought research competition. For more information, please contact Britt Parker (britt.parker@noaa.gov).
Research Snapshot
Abby Frazier, Clark University
Ryan Longman and Giuseppe Torri, University of Hawai‘i, Mānoa; Ashley McGuigan, University of Hawai‘i, Mānoa and USDA Southwest Climate Hub
What to expect from this research
This research will improve drought early warning and drought decision-making in Hawai’i and the USAPI by:
- Analyzing the relationships between drought and natural climate patterns (such as El Niño).
- Developing new agricultural drought metrics and analyzing how droughts are changing.
- Evaluating the impacts of drought on agroforestry systems.
- Strengthening partnerships and co-developing new products to enhance drought resilience.
Results from this work will directly benefit agricultural communities, and the research team will engage directly with farmers and other stakeholders to ensure results are useful and usable.
