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Regional Drought Update Date
November 20, 2020
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Drought Early Warning Update for the Northeast


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

Weekly, while drought conditions persist

Minimal changes in drought conditions for New England but some improvement in New York.

For more details, see the Northeast Drought Early Warning System Dashboard.

  • Extreme Drought (D3) remained limited to southern Maine and southeast New Hampshire.
  • Severe Drought (D2) remained in coastal Maine, southeast New Hampshire, southeast Massachusetts, and southeast Rhode Island.
  • Severe drought (D2) conditions improved in northern New York; remaining only in western New York this week.
  • Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) areas saw little change.
  • As winter approaches, there are concerns that the ground will freeze before the groundwater can recharge. Recharge before freezing could ease concerns about starting the spring season with a deficit.  
Current Conditions

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Northeast |

November 17, 2020
Main Stats
1%
of the Northeast is experiencing extreme drought (D3)
5%
of the Northeast is experiencing severe drought (D2)
44%
of the Northeast is experiencing moderate drought (D1)
29%
of the Northeast is experiencing abnormally dry conditions (D0)

La Niña and Potential Influences on the Northeast

A La Nina Advisory is in effect from the NWS Climate Prediction Center

From the 19 November 2020 U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook:
“...the La Niña response tends to shift the favored winter storm track towards the Ohio Valley through interior New England, favoring continued droughtimprovements for Illinois, Indiana, and the Northeast.” 

October 2020 Northeast Region Winter Climate Patterns and Outlook

State Reported Impacts

Maine

Dry well reports are slowing down but still coming into the state. Report total to date - 278. 

New Hampshire

New Hampshire Geological Survey performed a mid-month measurement of the 12 wells in its monitoring network that are located in the section of the state experiencing “extreme drought” (D3). Comparison of measurements from the end of October to last Thursday (12 November 2020) indicated that while well levels remained below normal, levels had not further deteriorated and had risen in a few instances.

Accumulated Precipitation Departure From Normal (includes precipitation for Nov. 5)

  • October rainfall had reversed the downward trend of precipitation departure from normal, but the dry trend resumed in November.

Graph showing accumulated precipitation departure from normal for Caribou Area, ME, Providence Area, RI, and Concord Area, NH.

Outlooks

  • The 8-14 day maps indicate above-normal temperatures for the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is predicted for Connecticut, Rhode Island, almost all of Massachusetts, and southern parts of Maine, New Hampshire, and New York. Below-normal precipitation is favored for western New York. Normal precipitation is favored for the rest of the region.
  • The 3-4 week outlook favors above-normal temperatures and equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation for the Northeast.

 Temperature Outlook 8-14 Day

NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook for the Northeast U.S. Above normal temperatures are projected across the region.
8-14 day temperature outlook for the Northeast U.S. from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Valid for November 27 - December 3, 2020. 

Precipitation Outlook 8-14 Day

NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precipitation outlook for the Northeast U.S. Below normal precipitation is projected for Western New York, with above normal precipitation predicted for parts of Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Southern New York.
8-14 day precipitation outlook for the Northeast U.S. from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Valid for Valid for November 27 - December 3, 2020. 

Temperature Outlook Week 3-4

NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3-4 temperature outlook for the Northeast U.S. Above normal temperatures are projected across the eastern U.S.
A 3-4-week temperature outlook for the U.S. from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Made November 27, 2020. Valid for December 12 - 25, 2020. 

Precipitation Outlook Week 3-4

NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3-4 precipitation outlook for the Northeast U.S. The Northeast has an equal probability of above or below normal precipitation, while the Southern U.S. and Northern Plains are projected to have below normal precipitation.
A 3-4-week precipitation outlook for the U.S. from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Made November 27, 2020. Valid for December 12 - 25, 2020. 

Current CPC Outlooks: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Additional Resources

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

David Hollinger and Maria Janowiak
USDA Climate Hubs

Gardner Bent
USGS/New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast. 

Special Thanks

This Drought Early Warning Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Early Warning Updates as conditions evolve.