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Regional Drought Update Date
May 10, 2021
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update for the Northern Great Plains


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Widespread drought conditions and associated impacts likely to persist this summer.

This drought status update summarizes key points from the May 7 Northern Plains Drought Update and Outlook Webinar, which provided an update on and outlook for the ongoing drought conditions across portions of the Northern Great Plains. 

Key Points

  • Widespread moderate to extreme drought (D1D3) continues to persist across much of the Northern Great Plains. The hardest hit state, North Dakota, currently has Extreme Drought (D3) impacting 85% of the state. D3 covers roughly 20% of South Dakota, 16% of Montana, and 5% of Wyoming.
  • The most prominent drought impacts include significant and record-breaking wildfires (over 800 fires in North Dakota alone), lack of water and poor water quality for livestock, poor pasture and rangelands, and reduced ability to grow some commercial and specialty crops.
  • As a result, widespread burn bans are in effect, and some states are offering water assistance programs and coordinating hay hotlines/feed lists. Some producers are reducing their herd size, and some farmers were not able to plant spring wheat.
  • Steady and consistent rainfall is needed across much of the region for significant drought recovery. Unfortunately, despite the potential for some short-term relief over the next week, the summer climate outlook does not look promising to alleviate drought conditions. There is a greater chance for above-normal temperatures across the entire Northern Great Plains, and a greater potential for below-normal precipitation in the western parts of the region.
  • It is likely that drought impacts will continue throughout summer, with the potential for more wildfires and decreased water supply. A secondary peak of wildfire is expected in late summer/early fall if conditions do not improve before then.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Northern Great Plains | May 4, 2021

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Main Stats
85%
of North Dakota is in Extreme Drought (D3)
20%
of South Dakota is in Extreme Drought (D3)
16%
of Montana is in Extreme Drought (D3)
5%
of Wyoming is in Extreme Drought (D3)

Summer Precipitation Outlook: May–July 2021

Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for May to July 2021, showing the percent chance that conditions will be above-, below-, or near-normal. Odds favor below- norma precipitation for Montana and Wyoming and parts of the Dakotas.
Three-month precipitation outlook for May–July 2021, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Valid April 15, 2021. Source: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

May 7 Webinar Presenters

  • Laura Edwards, State Dakota State Climatologist
  • Coleen Haskell, Northern Rockies Coordination Center
  • Britt Parker, NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Access the May 7 Webinar Recording

Drought Status Update Prepared By

Molly Woloszyn & Britt Parker
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Dennis Todey & Dannele Peck
USDA Midwest and Northern Plains Climate Hubs

Doug Kluck
NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information

Ray Wolf
NOAA/National Weather Service

Natalie Umphlett
High Plains Regional Climate Center

Report Drought Impacts

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and/or development within the North Central U.S. based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.