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Regional Drought Update Date
December 21, 2023
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Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update for the Southern Plains


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue further drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Slow and Steady Improvements in Persistent Southern Plains Drought

Key Points

  • Drought has improved but continues across much of the Southern Plains.
  • Exceptional Drought (D4) persists in southeastern New Mexico and along the Texas/Louisiana state line. 
  • More rain is expected over the winter months, bringing continued drought improvement. 
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains | December 19, 2023

U.S. Drought Monitor

Main Stats
1.5%
of the Southern Plains is in Exceptional Drought (D4)
10%
less of the region is in D4 than 3 months ago
11.3 Million
people in areas of drought in TX, OK, and KS

Current Drought Conditions in the Southern Plains

  • Extreme Drought (D3) conditions have been in place in the Southern Plains region since August 2019.
  • Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since June 28, 2016. This is a new drought duration record for the Southern Plains; it has been 391 weeks since the Southern Plains was drought free.
  • Kansas has experienced a one- to two-category improvement in drought over the last month, with parts of southwest Kansas now drought free.
  • Oklahoma, especially western Oklahoma, including the Panhandle region, received 2–5 inches of rain over the past month. The Panhandle has been out of drought since June, but Extreme Drought (D3) persisted over the southwest (Harmon County, Greer County and surrounds) until early December. 
  • Extreme Drought (D3) continues over central Texas (including Austin, San Marcos, and San Antonio). 
  • Southeast New Mexico continues in Exceptional Drought (D4) (Chaves County and Eddy County).  
  • Louisiana, while not in the Southern Plains DEWS region, has seen increasing drought. 99.2% of the state is in Moderate Drought (D1) or worse, 63% of the state in Extreme Drought (D3) or worse, and 24% of the state is in Exceptional Drought (D4), which is down from 74% in November.

U.S. Drought Monitor 2-Month Change Map

Key Takeaway: Where most of the Southern Plains was in drought through the summer, rainfall over late fall has improved drought by three to four USDM drought categories over parts of eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central, southern, and eastern Texas.
 

From October 24 to December 19, southeastern Kansas has experienced a 2-category improvement. Central Oklahoma has seen a one category improvement, and parts of central and southern Texas haves seen one to four category improvements.
U.S. Drought Monitor changes over the eight weeks from October 24–December 19, 2023. Yellow/orange colors show where drought has worsened, and green/blue colors show where drought has improved. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for the Southern Plains

Key Takeaway: A band from southern New Mexico and across western Texas (the Chihuahuan Desert region) missed out on needed precipitation over the last month. Severe to Exceptional Drought  (D2–D4) continues in these areas. The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas received a much-needed soaking in mid-December.

 Over the 30 days to December 18th, precipitation was above normal for the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and southwest Kansas, with areas of below-normal precipitation extending across southern New Mexico, Central Texas, and eastern Oklahoma.
30-day percent of normal precipitation for the Southern Plains, compared to historical conditions from 1991–2020. Brown hues indicate below-normal precipitation and blue hues indicate above-normal precipitation. Map covers the 30 days leading up to December 18, 2023. Source: GridMET, UC Merced. Map from Drought.gov.

Upper Layer (0–1 meter) Soil Moisture Percentiles

Key Takeaway: Where the precipitation pattern and the temperature pattern are so different, the upper-layer soil moisture provides an indication that the persistent drought is still impacting parts of the Southern Plains. Eastern Texas and Louisiana are still experiencing lingering soil moisture deficits despite recent rain.

Eastern Texas and Louisiana are still experiencing lingering soil moisture deficits despite recent rain, with soil moisture below the 5th percentile.
This soil moisture map shows the moisture content of the top 100 cm of soil compared to historical conditions (1981–2013), based on the Noah unified land surface model. Red and orange hues indicate drier soils, while greens and blues indicate greater soil moisture. Source: NASA SPoRT-LIS. Map from Drought.gov.


Southern Plains Drought Impacts

Report your local drought impacts through a Condition Monitoring Observer Report:

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Texas Reservoir Levels

Key Takeaway: Reservoir levels in eastern Texas improved over the past two months, while reservoir levels in central Texas remained low. 

A map of Texas showing the percent full of each substantial reservoir in Texas. Reservoirs in eastern Texas are 70%-100% full, while reservoirs in central Texas are below 50% full.
A map of Texas showing the percent full of each substantial reservoir in Texas. Valid December 18, 2023. Reservoirs in the eastern part of Texas are mainly 70% or more full, while most reservoirs in western Texas are less than half full. Source: Texas Water Development Board

Outlooks & Potential Impacts for the Southern Plains

  • The winter months are usually the driest time of the year for Southern Plains states, with January typically being the driest month of the year for Kansas and Oklahoma.
  • El Niño (the current state of the central Pacific Ocean) usually, but not always, means a wetter than normal winter for the Southern Plains, with the strongest influence over the gulf coast and far southern Texas.

1-Month Precipitation Outlook for January 2024

Key Takeaway: January precipitation shows an equal chance of above- or below -normal totals across much of the Southern Plains, according to Climate Prediction Center’s outlook.
 

In January 2024, there is a near-equal chance of above or below-normal precipitation across the Southern Plains, except for a small slice of the gulf coast region of eastern Texas.
Precipitation outlook for January 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (green) precipitation across the Southern Plains. Valid December 21, 2023. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov

1-Month Temperature Outlook: January 2024

Key Takeaway: January temperature outlook shows an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures across all of the Southern Plains, according to Climate Prediction Center’s outlook.

For January 2024, there is a near-equal chance of above or below-normal temperatures across all of the Southern Plains.
Temperature outlook for January 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (blue), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (red) temperatures across the Southern Plains. Valid December 21, 2023. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov

Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook for January–March 2024

Key Takeaway: Odds favor above-normal precipitation for western Kansas and eastern Texas. The rest of the region shows an equal chance of above- or below-normal precipitation.

For January to March 2024,  there is a near-equal chance of above or below-normal precipitation across the Southern Plains, except for slight odds of above-normal precipitation for western Kansas and parts of the gulf coast region of eastern Texas.
Precipitation outlook for January–March, 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (green) precipitation across the U.S. Valid December 21, 2023. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook for January–March 2024

Key Takeaway: Odds favor near-normal temperatures over Oklahoma and parts of northern Texas and southern Kansas. There are equal chances of above- or-below normal temperatures for the rest of the region.

For January to March 2024, odds favor near normal temperatures for Oklahoma. There is a near-equal chance of above or below-normal temperatures across the rest of the Southern Plains.
Temperature outlook for January–March 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (blues), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (reds) temperatures across the U.S. Valid December 21, 2023. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

Additional Resources

Regional Resources

Upcoming Events

In Case You Missed It

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee, Adam Lang, Kelsey Satalino, and Eleanor Hasenbeck
NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, CIRES/CU Boulder

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Matt Sittel
Kansas Assistant State Climatologist, Kansas State University

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

William (BJ) Baule and Alison Tarter
Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

Keith White and Victor Murphy
National Weather Service

Special Thanks

 

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.