This article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) was the result of NIDIS-supported research. Learn more about this research.

Using the state-of-science and the collective expertise of the NOAA Drought Task Force, this report addresses three questions about the period of below normal rain, snow, runoff, and soil moisture, known as the 2020-21 U.S. Southwest drought: (1) How bad is it? (2) What caused it? And (3) When will it end?

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Western Region for June - August 2021.  Dated September 2021.

Temperatures were well above average across nearly the entire west and were record breaking in some cases.  Over 89% of the western U.S. is in drought, with 54% in extreme to exceptional drought.

Severe, extreme, or exceptional drought conditions have become increasingly common throughout the western United States over the past 20 years.  Abnormally dry conditions can lead to a wide range of negative economic impacts across a wide range of sectors that either directly or indirectly depend on weather-dependent ecosystem services. 

The National Weather Service Central Region developed 2021 Fall Hazard Outlooks in coordination with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS); U.S. Department of Agriculture; High Plains Regional Climate Center; and National Interagency Fire Center's Geographic Area Coordination Centers. This outlook highlights the various Fall hazards that could occur and potential impacts across the Western U.S.