This report provides information on the typical El Niño winter pattern; the El Niño outlook; potential impacts; and comparisons of conditions during previous El Niño years for the Midwest U.S. Updated November 2023.

NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the U.S. Drought Portal.

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for June–August 2023. Dated September 2023.

Summer temperatures were near normal for most of the Midwest, with slightly above-normal temperatures in the west and slightly below-normal temperatures in the east. Summer precipitation was 84% of normal for the Midwest. Deficits of 4–10 inches were widespread across the northwest, while surpluses of 2–8 inches were observed across the south-central and eastern Midwest.

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook for the Midwest Region for March–May 2023. Dated June 2023.

Average spring temperatures were near to slightly above normal for most of the Midwest, except in Minnesota, where temperatures were up to 4°F below normal for spring. Spring precipitation was 80% of normal for the Midwest.