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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: March 28, 2023

Event Date
March 28, 2023
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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This past month brought a roller coaster of temperature changes to the Southeast, beginning with unseasonably warm weather during the first week of March, followed by cooler weather with subfreezing temperatures during the middle of the month, then a return to unseasonably warm weather at the end of the month. Precipitation was below average across the region, with many locations receiving less than half of their expected amounts. However, recent rains have helped minimize drought expansion, except in parts of the Florida Peninsula and a few other areas, which continue to be drier than normal and where drought is slowly expanding and intensifying. La Niña has ended, and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue this spring and summer. Streamflows were moving towards below normal this past month, but recent rains have improved conditions and there are some areas of flooding reported. Streamflows are typically at their highest levels of the year for most of the interior Southeast.

Looking Ahead: Warm and wet conditions are expected over the next two weeks. Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be above average across the region, with equal chances of above- and below-normal precipitation projected for most of the region. River flood risk over the next 3 months is expected to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems, where river flooding is more likely this time of year. The Florida Peninsula is expecting below-normal flood risk over the next 3 months due to drier-than-normal conditions in this current dry season. 

Check out this month’s special presentation, “La Niña Scorecard and What to Expect this Spring/Early Summer” from David Zierden.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is "La Niña Scorecard and What to Expect this Spring/Early Summer."

 

Timestamp
0:55

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were variable over the past month; unseasonably warm weather continued at the beginning of March, followed by cooler weather with subfreezing temperatures during the middle of the month, then a return to unseasonably warm weather at the end of the month.
  • Precipitation was below average across the region, with many locations receiving less than half of their expected precipitation.
  • Drought expanded across the western Florida Panhandle, extreme southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Drought expanded and intensified across the Florida Peninsula, with severe drought (D2) emerging in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the state. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions expanded across eastern portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. Moderate drought (D1) emerged in Puerto Rico, and severe drought (D2) emerged on St. Croix. Drought removal is expected across the Florida Peninsula, yet is expected to persist across Puerto Rico over the next 3 months.
  • La Niña has ended, and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue this spring and summer; a transition to El Niño may occur later this year.
  • Warm and wet conditions are expected over the next two weeks; equal chances of above and below temperatures and precipitation are projected for weeks 3 and 4 across most of the region, while the Florida Peninsula is expected to remain warm and wet.
  • Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be above average across the region, with equal chances of above- and below-normal precipitation projected for most of the region (except across Virginia, which is leaning above average).
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the southeast region can be accessed at the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

 

Timestamp
11:40

Water Resources: Spring Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • As we have neared the end of flood/recharge season in the southeast U.S., it seemed as though we were drying out. The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflows are/were becoming below normal across most of the Southeast. However, conditions have improved in recent days due to copious amounts of rain in many areas, and drought is now less likely. Flooding conditions are occurring in some areas. 
  • Streamflows typically are at their highest levels for the year. Climatologically, March has the peak for most of the area, except for the Florida Peninsula.
  • Spring Flood Outlook (April–June): The chance for flooding is starting to decrease as we approach April due to competition for water from evapotranspiration. Overall the next 3-month period, river flood risk is forecast to be near normal, which is typical for the interior Southeast river systems. River flooding is more likely in the winter to the spring season. For the Florida Peninsula, the dry season will be coming to an end as we approach June. Flooding is not typical across this area, but Florida has been drier than normal, so below-normal flood risk is indicated.  
  • Additional information is available through the National Weather Service.

 

Timestamp
20:25

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Early blooming of fruit trees and shrubs, followed by several frosts, appears to have caused significant yield losses in the region (especially peaches, blueberries, and blackberries).
  • Some areas were able to do frost/freeze protection using overheat irrigation, row covers, and wind machines, reducing yield losses.
  • Frost damage set back corn, pecans, and other crops, but they will probably grow out of it.
  • Chill hours are below last year’s amounts and much below historical averages.
  • Southern areas will be past 10% chance of late frost by early April.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
28:35

Special Presentation: La Niña Scorecard and What to Expect this Spring/Early Summer

Speaker: David F. Zierden, Florida State Climatologist, Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, The Florida State University

  • La Niña conditions persisted in the Pacific for three consecutive years, but this is not unusual.
  • La Niña helped lead to active hurricane seasons in 2020 and 2021, but not so much in 2022.
  • Expected winter temperature and precipitation patterns associated with a multi-year La Niña were not consistent over the three years.
  • The Southeast has largely avoided widespread and prolonged drought that usually accompanies multi-year La Niña events.
  • Questions? Contact David Zierden.

 

Timestamp
46:00

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for the next webinars!
    • April 25, 2023: How Does a Warming Planet Affect Precipitation in the Southeast?
    • May 23, 2023: A Web-Based Tool to Assess Heat Risk Using Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
    • June 27, 2023: 2023 Hurricane Outlook

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

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