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Regional Drought Update Date
March 23, 2023
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Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update for the Northeast


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue future Northeast Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.

New York and New England Remain Drought Free, but Abnormal Dryness Lingers on Long Island.

Key Points:

  • New England and New York state are free of drought.
  • Abnormally Dry conditions (D0) persist on the eastern two-thirds of Long Island.
  • Seasonal snowfall deficits remain a concern for spring fire risk, as well as warm season drought potential.
  • The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook expects near-normal significant fire potential for much of the eastern U.S. in March–June.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor | Northeast

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Current Conditions

Water Year 2023 Snowfall Departure (Inches)

From the start of the water year (October 1, 2022), snowfall is below normal across most of the Northeast, except for parts of New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, and southern Maine.
Snowfall departure from normal (in inches) since the start of the water year (October 1, 2022–March 22, 2023).  Access New York and New England Snow Survey data. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center

Snowfall Totals Compared to Normal

Location Oct. 1, 2022–Mar. 22, 2023 Snowfall (in.) Normal (in.) Departure (in.) Rank (least snowy)
Syracuse, NY 65.3 121.4 -56.1 19
Rochester, NY 49.4 95.6 -46.2 13
Boston, MA 12.4 46.0 -33.6 4
Bridgeport, CT 4.9 31.5 -26.6 1*
Central Park, NY 2.3 28.6 -26.3 1
LaGuardia Airport, NY 3.4 28.5 -25.1 3
Hartford, CT 24.2 49.1 -24.9  
Islip, NY 5.0 29.9 -24.9 5
Providence, RI 11.6 35.0 -23.4 6
Kennedy Airport, NY 2.1 24.6 -22.5 2
Worcester, MA 47.2 68.5 -21.3  
Binghamton, NY 59.5 79.3 -19.8 15
Burlington, VT 71.7 80.0 -8.3  
Portland, ME 56.2 63.2 -7.0  
Albany, NY 54.8 55.4 -0.6  
Concord, NH 63.7 62.5 1.2  
Caribou, ME 115.0 104.1 10.9  
Buffalo, NY 133.3 90.3 43.0 5 snowiest

Snowfall departures in selected cities across the Northeast DEWS region are in the double digits, with Bridgeport, CT and Central Park, NY experiencing their least snowy winters between the dates of October 1 and March 22. Yellow shading indicates record low snowfall, while blue indicates locations with above-normal snowfall. *Bridgeport, CT is missing snow data on 3/14. Source: ACIS. 

Snow Water Equivalent for March 12–16, 2023

For March 12 to 16, snow water equivalent (SWE) is 3 to 9+ inches at most stations across Maine
This map represents the water equivalent of the snowpack (in inches) as measured at survey sites around New York and New England for March 12–16, 2023. Snow surveys are taken every two weeks from early January to as late as early May, depending on the existence of a significant snowpack. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Accumulated Snowfall Departure from Normal

Departure from normal snowfall (inches) for locations across the Northeast. Snowfall is below normal at New York Central Park, Providence, Burlington, Boston, and Syracuse.
Departure from normal snowfall (inches) for Caribou Area, ME (blue), Boston Area, MA (black), Providence Area, RI (green), Burlington Area, VT (orange), New York Central Park Area, NY (purple), and Syracuse Area, NY (red). Source: ACIS.

State-Reported Conditions and Impacts

Connecticut

Maine

Massachusetts

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Vermont

Northeast

Volunteers are needed to measure precipitation! CoCoRaHS (the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network) is a non-profit, community-based network of volunteer weather observers of all ages and backgrounds who measure and report precipitation. These data help improve the accuracy of weather forecasts, contribute to real-time drought and flood monitoring, are used in research applications, and so much more. Ready to help? Go to www.cocorahs.org and click the “Join CoCoRaHS” button in the upper right corner. 
 

Find additional impacts through the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Impact Reporter

Find local drought information by address, city or zip code on Drought.gov.

Outlooks

8–14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

  • According to the Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlooks (valid March 30–April 5):
    • Temperatures across the region are expected to be below normal for the period (offering the possibility for some improvement to the snowfall deficits).
    • Precipitation is expected to be above normal for all but the extreme northernmost portions of Maine. With a low snow winter almost in the record books, this could help reduce the brush fire risk for a few weeks.
From March 30 to April 5, odds favor below-normal temperatures across the Northeast.
8–14 day temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from March 30–April 5. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.
From March 30 to April 5, odds favor above-normal precipitation across the Northeast, except for far-eastern Maine, where near-normal conditions are favored.
8–14 day precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from March 30–April 5. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

According to the week 3–4 outlook (valid April 1–14, 2023):

  • Lower confidence and predictability exists with the transition to spring, but there are equal chances for above- or below-normal temperatures. 
  • Slightly above-normal precipitation could be expected for southern New England and southeastern New York, with equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation elsewhere in the region. Lower outlook confidence remains the key point as spring conditions are defined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition (La Niña to Neutral and then a possible El Niño status by late spring or summer).  
  • Longer range models and statistical guidance are mixed in terms of expected outcomes for weather patterns, temperature, and precipitation.
From April 1–14, there are equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures across the Northeast.
Week 3–4 temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal temperatures across the U.S. from April 1–14. Issued March 17, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.
From April 1–14, odds favor above-normal precipitation for Connecticut, Rhode Island, most of Massachusetts, and southern New York/Long Island. Elsewhere, there are equal chances of above- or below-normal conditions.
Week 3–4 precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal precipitation across the U.S. from April 1–14. Issued March 17, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook: March 16–June 30, 2023

There is moderate confidence that the Northeast will remain drought free for the period due to shorter-range forecasts and outlooks for cooler and wetter conditions.

Drought is not predicted to develop in the Northeast for March 16–June 30, 2023.
Seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, showing where drought is predicted to persist, improve, be removed, or develop from March 16–June 30, 2023. Drought is not expected to develop in the Northeast. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, via Drought.gov

What We Are Watching

Featured Resources

Additional Resources

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast. 

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.