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Regional Drought Update Date
June 2, 2025
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Special Edition Drought Status Update for Pacific Northwest Tribal Nations

DEWS Regions:
Pacific Northwest
,
Tribal Engagement
States:
Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue additional Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.

Warm and Dry Conditions Set the Stage for Increased Wildfire Activity, Diminished Water Supplies This Summer

Key Points

  • Recent warm and dry conditions have caused snowpack to melt rapidly and earlier than normal across much of the Pacific Northwest.
  • Rapid snowmelt and increased evaporative demand caused soils and vegetation to dry out very quickly, resulting in an early start to the fire season.
  • Early snowmelt and recent dry, warm conditions have caused streamflows to rapidly decline, particularly west of the Cascade Range and in the Oregon Coast Range. Water supplies may be negatively impacted this summer.
  • Over the past month, drought and Abnormal Dryness (D0) developed and expanded across numerous tribal lands in western Washington and Oregon, northeastern Oregon, and northwestern Idaho.
  • The Washington Department of Ecology declared a Drought Emergency for portions of the Yakima Basin, which includes part of the Yakama Nation Reservation.
  • Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation are expected to cause drought to further develop and intensify this summer, and to increase wildfire potential. 

This update is based on data available as of Friday, May 30, 2025 at 10 a.m. PT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions for Pacific Northwest Tribal Lands
May 27, 2025

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories
30.74
45.94
11.76
3.01
0.49
61.19

Data valid: 05/27/25
Learn More
Main Stats
49.0%
of tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest are Abnormally Dry (D0)
14.1%
of tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest are in Moderate Drought (D1)
2.1%
of tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest are in Severe Drought (D2)

Current Conditions and Impacts

  • During the past 60 days, much of the region experienced above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. The exceedingly warm conditions caused the snowpack to melt rapidly. Peak snowpack was normal to above normal for the water year throughout much of Idaho, northwestern Montana, southern Washington, and eastern portions of Oregon. However, peak snowpack was below normal for many locations throughout the Cascade Range in northern and central Washington and Oregon.
  • Drought conditions expanded across the region during the spring. According to the May 27 U.S. Drought Monitor, the Flathead Reservation in Montana is experiencing the most intense drought conditions on tribal lands in the region, with 13.6% of the reservation in Severe Drought (D2). Nearly two-thirds of tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest are experiencing drought or Abnormal Dryness (D0-D2).
  • Recent low precipitation, high temperatures, and early snowpack meltout caused streamflows to decline throughout western Washington and Oregon. Many streamgages in this region reported much-below-normal streamflow. Elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest, streamflows varied from above normal to below normal.
  • On April 8, the Washington Department of Ecology declared a Drought Emergency for the Yakima Basin watersheds of Naches, Upper Yakima, and Lower Yakima, which includes part of the Yakama Nation Reservation. Drought in these watersheds in 2023 and 2024 created long-term precipitation and soil moisture deficits. Spring runoff will not be sufficient to fill reservoirs or overcome the soil moisture deficit. The declaration made funding available from the state to federally recognized tribes to alleviate the immediate effects of drought conditions.
  • A Drought Advisory was issued at the same time for parts of Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, King, Pierce, Chelan, and Okanogan counties in Washington. An advisory is used as a readiness and communication tool to warn that drought conditions may be developing. Entities within those regions are not eligible for the grant funds associated with a Drought Emergency but are encouraged to start planning and to take voluntary conservation measures.
  • The fire season has started early. According to the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes Division of Fire, several fires have occurred on the Flathead Reservation in northwestern Montana this spring. 

Above-Normal Temperatures Prevailed During the Past 60 Days

Maximum temperatures were mostly above normal during the past 60 days across tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest.
Average maximum daily temperature for the past 60 days (March 28–May 27, 2025) compared to the historical average (1991-2020) for the same 60 days. Negative values (blue hues) indicate colder-than-normal temperatures, and positive values (red hues) indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures. Source: UC Merced, GridMET. Map from Drought.gov.  

Extremely Low Precipitation Persisted During Spring

Precipitation was below normal during the past 60 days across most tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest, with the exception of the northeastern portion of the Flathead Reservation in northwestern Montana, where precipitation was slightly above normal.
Precipitation for the past 60 days (March 28–May 27, 2025) as a percentage of the historical average (1991-2020) for the same time period. Green/blue shades indicate above-normal precipitation, while brown shades indicate below-normal precipitation. Source: UC Merced, GridMET. Map from Drought.gov. 

Streamflows Much Below Normal in Cascades Region

The 28-day average streamflow map depicts much below normal streamflow on and near tribal lands in western Washington and Oregon, particularly in the Cascades region. Elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest, streamflows mostly ranged from normal to below normal.
28-day average streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sites in the Pacific Northwest, compared to historical conditions for the same time period. Red and orange hues indicate below-normal streamflow, and blue and black hues indicate above-normal streamflow. Source: USGS WaterWatch. Map from Drought.gov.

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for the Pacific Northwest

Outlooks

  • The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks for June–August show increased chances for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest.
  • Wildfires are expected to be a concern throughout the region this summer, with the likelihood of above-normal significant wildland fire potential increasing across the region as the summer progresses.
  • As is the case in any summer, short-duration heat waves are possible, but especially this summer with above-normal temperatures predicted.
  • As a result of these outlooks, drought is expected to persist or redevelop across tribal lands in Washington, Idaho, and western Montana. 

Potential Impacts for Summer 2025

  • According to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, water supply in the Yakima Basin will not fully meet irrigation demands this season. As of May 20, the Bureau of Reclamation is predicting that senior water users will receive 100% of their entitlements, but proratable water right holders (water users with May 10, 1905 water rights) will receive only 48% of their normal entitlements from May 20–September 30.
    • Junior water right holders will be curtailed entirely in the Yakima Basin (juniors' priority date is after May 10, 1905).
  • This region can be particularly vulnerable to extreme heat due to the lack of widespread air conditioning. This puts certain populations, such as elders and young children, at higher risk for experiencing negative health effects of heat.
  • Impacts from a potentially above-normal wildfire season may include deteriorated air quality, damage to pastures and rangeland, degraded water quality, and disruptions to irrigation canals.
  • Agricultural producers anticipate the need to fallow land and cease irrigation, leading to crop stress and reduced yields. This is due to inadequate water availability. Farmers with junior water rights are expected to be interrupted earlier this year due to compounding snowpack deficits and reduced streamflows.
  • River flows are projected to decline to levels in which fish will not be able to migrate later this summer, resulting in stranding and increased fish mortality of critical anadromous and resident fishes. Low streamflow leads to higher stream temperatures that are dangerous for fish.
  • Impacts to small and more vulnerable public water systems may arise later in summer or early fall. Small water systems may need to truck water, deepen wells, and conduct additional maintenance to support domestic water uses. 

Above-Normal Temperatures and Below-Normal Precipitation Expected This Summer 

The Climate Prediction Center predicts a greater likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for all tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest from June–August 2025.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts increased chances of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in the region from June–August 2025. The image on the left shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (orange and red), near-normal (gray), and below-normal (blue) temperatures. The image on the right shows the probability of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (green) precipitation. White areas indicate equal chances of above-, below-, or near-normal conditions. Outlook issued May 15, 2025. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Drought Anticipated to Persist and Further Develop This Summer

The Climate Prediction Center expects drought conditions to persist across tribal lands just east of the Puget Sound in central Washington, northwestern and northeastern Oregon, northern Idaho, and northwestern Montana, and further develop across tribal lands in western and eastern Oregon, northern Idaho, and northwestern Montana.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, showing whether drought is predicted to develop (yellow), remain (brown), improve (beige), or be removed (green) from May 31–August 31, 2025. Valid May 31, 2025. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Above-Normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential Expected This Summer

Above-normal significant wildland fire potential is expected across tribal lands in central and eastern Washington, northern and central Oregon, and northern Idaho in June; northwestern, central, and eastern Washington, central and eastern Oregon, northern, southwestern, and south-central Idaho, and western Montana in July; and all of the Pacific Northwest except eastern Idaho in August and September.
The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook indicates whether significant wildland fire potential is predicted to be above normal (red), below normal (green), or normal (white) during a particular month. This animation shows monthly fire potential outlooks for June–September 2025. Released: June 1, 2025. Source: National Interagency Coordination Center.

Resources and Impact Reporting

  • Water resources drought response grants are available to federally recognized tribes in the state of Washington’s Drought Emergency declaration areas. As conditions evolve, the Washington State Department of Ecology may expand the areas included in the Drought Emergency declaration. Visit Ecology’s Drought Response web page for the most current drought declaration areas, or contact Caroline Mellor, Statewide Drought Lead with the Washington State Department of Ecology, for more information.
  • Follow these steps from the Washington State Department of Health to identify and avoid potential water shortages.
  • Reduce your wildfire risk with these resources:
  • Air quality is often degraded in areas where wildfire smoke is present, and elders and individuals with respiratory issues are at greatest risk for adverse health effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is loaning air monitoring equipment to tribal air organizations through its Wildfire Smoke Air Monitoring Response Technology (WSMART) loan program. If you represent a tribal air agency, fill out this form to request air monitors.
  • Stay safe during extreme heat and learn the signs of heat-related illness by following these tips from the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS). Stay informed about heat advisories and excessive heat warnings issued for your area by following your local National Weather Service office.
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) provides disaster assistance to producers across the country.
    • This fact sheet describes the types of disaster designations and the process for declaring a disaster.
    • This packet contains all of the FSA eligibility forms needed for Tribal Nations to apply for assistance.
  • Join NIDIS, the Montana Climate Office, and the Native Resilience Project for an update on drought conditions across the Columbia and Upper Missouri River Basins and a demonstration of the Upper Missouri River Basin Drought Indicators Dashboard. This dashboard provides the ability to view drought data at the tribal reservation level across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, and is used in operational drought assessment that informs the U.S. Drought Monitor. The webinar will be held June 10, 2025, 12 p.m.–1 p.m. PT. Register here.
  • Would you like to report drought impacts or learn about impacts already reported? The Condition Monitoring Observer Reports on Drought (CMOR-Drought) tool allows people to submit observation reports related to drought or unusually wet conditions. The observations are presented in a map that can be used to view and access submitted reports.

Prepared By

Crystal Stiles, Jason Gerlich

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System

 

Kylie Avery, Patrick Freeland

Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center

 

Larry O’Neill

Oregon Climate Service, Oregon State University

 

Erica Fleishman

OCCRI, Oregon State University

 

Karin Bumbaco

Office of the Washington State Climatologist, University of Washington

 

Caroline Mellor

Washington State Department of Ecology

 

Special Thanks

This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, Oregon Climate Service, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Office of the Washington State Climatologist, and Washington State Department of Ecology to communicate potential areas of concern for drought expansion or development across tribal lands within the Pacific Northwest DEWS region on the basis of recent conditions and forecasts. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.

Partner(s)
NOAA emblem

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians.

Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI)

Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center.

Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center

Oregon Climate Service logo

Oregon Climate Service

Oregon Climate Change Research Institute logo

Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Washington State Climate Office logo.

Washington State Climate Office

Washington State Department of Ecology logo

Washington State Department of Ecology

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