Regional Climate Impacts and Outlook documents summarize seasonal conditions four times a year, in March, June, September and December. Regions include the Northeast, Gulf of Maine, Southeast, South, Midwest, Great Lakes region, Missouri River Basin, Western Region, Alaska and Northern Canada, and Hawaii and the Pacific. Select and download the most recent Outlook for your region here
You are here
National Drought SummaryThe discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilizedinclude the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast webpage used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.
Weather Summary: Warmer than normal temperatures were common this week over the eastern half of the continental U.S., while temperatures were primarily near normal over the western half, with a few exceptions. Moderate to heavy precipitation was common this week along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor, excepting parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. In the West, moderate to heavy precipitation also fell in some of the higher elevation areas. For more details on the geographic distribution of precipitation and temperature anomalies, please see the regional paragraphs below. The only exceptional drought occurring in the United States, on Maui, was removed this week after a major precipitation event in Hawaii, where other improvements were also made. Heavy rainfall in northern and eastern Puerto Rico also ended the moderate drought there. In the central and eastern continental U.S., drought conditions generally improved in areas that received heavier precipitation, while some degradation occurred in locations in Texas and Oklahoma that remained drier. The depiction of moderate drought and abnormal dryness also changed in Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, where recent precipitation (or lack thereof) affected mountain snowpack and short-term precipitation deficits. For more details on changes made to the drought depiction, please see the regional paragraphs.
Southeast: Widespread precipitation fell in the Southeast region over the past week, with the exceptions of the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Florida Peninsula. Precipitation amounts ranged from about a half inch to as much as 2-3 inches across most areas that received precipitation. Temperatures were warmer than normal this week. The warmest areas were parts of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where temperatures soared to 9 to 12 degrees above normal in some locations. Due to the widespread rainfall, drought-free conditions continued in Alabama and South Carolina.
Midwest: Across the southern portion of the region (roughly the southeastern halves of Iowa and Wisconsin to the southeast), widespread precipitation of at least a half inch fell this week. The heaviest amounts fell from central and southern Missouri through southern portions of Illinois and Indiana, where precipitation amounts ranging from 2 to locally as high as 5 inches were common. Warmer than normal temperatures covered most of the region, particularly in Ohio and Kentucky and southern Indiana, where some locations were at least 15 degrees warmer than normal for the week. In contrast, northern Minnesota was 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Abnormal dryness ceased in western Indiana, where over 2 inches of rain fell. Elsewhere across the region, freedom from drought and abnormally dry conditions persisted.
Northeast: Precipitation over one-half inch fell in spots in the Northeast. The wettest areas (where precipitation ranging from 1-2 inches occurred) were found from Lake Ontario to northern Maine, generally near the Canadian border. Warmer than normal temperatures took place in the Northeast this week. Most areas, aside from central Pennsylvania and Maine, were 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for the week. Short-term dryness continued in Delaware this week, where streamflow and soil moisture were lower than normal. Aside from this area of abnormal dryness, the rest of the Northeast avoided abnormal dryness and drought for another week.
South: Most of the South had warmer than normal temperatures this week, though widespread rainfall led to reduction in drought conditions in parts of the region. Temperatures ranged from 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal in Mississippi and Tennessee to generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal in Oklahoma and Texas. Excluding south Texas, moderate to heavy rain fell across the portion of the region to the east of the Interstate 35 corridor. The highest rain amounts, with some locations exceeding 3 inches, fell upon north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and northern Mississippi. The heavy rain in east Texas and adjacent portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma led to improvement in drought and abnormally dry conditions in these areas, where short-term precipitation shortages were lessened, and streamflow improved. In areas west of the more widespread precipitation in Texas and Oklahoma, some of the drought and abnormally dry areas were expanded where short-term precipitation deficits grew.
High Plains: Across the High Plains region, primarily dry and near normal or cooler than normal conditions occurred, with the exceptions of south-central and eastern Kansas, where warmer than normal temperatures occurred and over a half inch of precipitation fell. Temperatures mostly ranged from 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal in South Dakota and North Dakota this week. Moderate and severe drought continued in south-central and southwest Kansas, respectively, and no changes were made to the drought or dryness depiction in the region.
West: Temperatures varied across the West region over the past week. Eastern Utah and north-central Montana had temperatures 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal, while western Utah was 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. Warmer temperatures continued in the eastern and southeastern plains of New Mexico, and abnormally dry conditions were expanded where high evaporative demand combined with lower recent precipitation amounts. Heavy mountain snow occurred in the Cascades, where abnormal dryness and moderate drought slightly improved as short-term precipitation deficits slightly lessened and snowpack grew. High elevation areas of Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, northern Utah, and northern California received precipitation this week, while lower elevation locations generally stayed dry. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions shifted in Idaho in response to changing snowpack and precipitation deficits over the past week.
Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico: Heavy rain over the past week in northern and eastern Puerto Rico improved precipitation deficits and streamflow enough to end the moderate drought that had been going on, though abnormal short-term dryness remains in spots. Short-term precipitation in the Alaska Panhandle has been near or above normal, but long-term precipitation deficits remain in the area, so long-term drought and abnormal dryness continued another week. Very low snowpack was noted on the Kenai Peninsula, though sufficient precipitation was occurring to keep abnormal dryness at bay. In Hawaii, a major rainfall event drenched parts of the state, leading to widespread improvements in drought conditions this week. Exceptional drought on Maui ceased, severe drought was improved to moderate drought in northeastern Kaho’olawe, and the abnormal dryness on Oahu abated. On the Big Island, the abnormal dryness in the southern half of the island was removed, severe drought in northwestern reaches of the island improved to moderate drought, and moderate drought on the northern half of the island was mostly eliminated, save the aforementioned severe drought area and a remaining area of severe drought around Waimea.
Another winter storm system is forecast to traverse the Central Plains, Midwest, and eastern continental U.S. from Thursday, January 16 into the weekend of Saturday the 18th, delivering widespread rain, snow, and a mix of winter precipitation types. For January 16-21, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting over three-quarters of an inch of precipitation in a widespread area from coastal central and northern California northward through the high elevation areas of western Washington and Oregon. Precipitation is also forecast in the central and northern Sierra Nevada, and in some of the high elevation regions of the Rocky Mountain Front Ranges and Intermountain West. Widespread precipitation is forecast from West Texas northeastward along and north of the Interstates 44 and 70 corridors and in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, where amounts may exceed an inch in some areas. Temperatures will vary in the High Plains and West during this period, while generally warmer than normal conditions over the eastern continental U.S during the first half of the weekend are forecast to be replaced by colder than normal weather afterward. For January 21-25, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting mainly warmer than normal temperatures from the High Plains westward, and below-normal temperatures in the South, Southeast, and Northeast. Below-normal precipitation is favored during this period in the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, while above-normal precipitation is favored in the Pacific Northwest, the Central and Southern Great Plains, and areas in between.
Last Week Drought Change
Last Month Drought Change