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Regional Drought Update Date
March 24, 2023
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Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update for the Missouri River Basin


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue future Missouri River Basin Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.

Drought Continues to Impact Missouri River Basin, Especially Across Kansas and Nebraska

Key Points

  • Despite some areas of improvement over the past few months, drought remains widespread across many of the states within the Missouri River Basin. Currently, 48% of this region is in drought, with the most intense areas in Kansas and Nebraska. 36% of Kansas is in the most intense level of drought, exceptional drought (D4), which is higher than any other state in the U.S. Areas with the most improvement in drought conditions over the last two months include northern Montana and eastern Kansas.
  • Many areas within the Basin have received near- to above-normal snowfall this winter, and significant snowpack remains on the ground. Hopefully the above-normal snowfall season will have a positive impact on streamflow and soil moisture; however, the extent of this impact cannot be determined until the snow melts and the ground thaws for the season.
  • The most intense areas of drought in Kansas and Nebraska are feeling ongoing impacts. Streamflow is below normal across both states, some groundwater levels have decreased in western Kansas, winter wheat and pasture conditions are suffering, and there has been increased wind erosion and dust storms.
  • Because spring and early summer is typically the wettest time of the year for the region, the seasonal drought outlook shows the chance for improved drought conditions, with the possibility for drought removal, in some areas. However, drought is expected to persist in some of the worst areas in the Basin—western Kansas and eastern Colorado.
  • With limited soil moisture across many areas in the Basin at the end of fall 2022, there are concerns that despite the above-normal winter rainfall and snowfall in some areas, soils will still be dry going into the 2023 growing season, or could quickly reverse from moist to dry with increased heat and vegetation growth.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor | Missouri River Basin

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Main Stats
48%
of the Missouri River Basin states is in drought
15%
less of the region is in drought than 2 months ago
78%
of the Missouri River Basin is abnormally dry (D0) or worse

Current Conditions and Impacts

Current Conditions

  • Despite some improvement over the past few months, drought remains widespread across many of the states within the Missouri River Basin. Currently, 48% of this region is in drought, with the most intense areas in Kansas and Nebraska. 
  • 36% of Kansas is in the most intense level of drought, exceptional drought (D4), which is higher than any other state in the U.S. Overall, moderate to exceptional drought (D1–D4) covers 75% of Kansas. In Nebraska, almost 100% of the state is in drought, with 20% in moderate drought (D1), 45% in severe drought (D2), 29% in extreme drought (D3), and 5% in exceptional drought (D4). 
  • Drought has improved in portions of the Missouri River Basin over the past two months, most prominently across northern Montana, eastern Kansas, northeast Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, and portions of North Dakota and Wyoming (Figure 1).
  • This relief came from near- to above-normal precipitation across these areas since late January. However, most of Kansas and Nebraska noticeably missed this winter precipitation (Figure 2).
  • Many areas within the Missouri River Basin have received near- to above-normal snowfall this winter (Figure 3), and significant snowpack remains on the ground (Figure 4). Hopefully this above-normal snowfall season will have a positive impact on streamflow and soil moisture; however, the extent of this impact cannot be determined until the snow melts and the ground thaws for the season. 

Figure 1. U.S. Drought Monitor 8-Week Change Map

Drought has improved in portions of the Missouri River Basin over the past two months, most prominently across northern Montana, eastern Kansas, northeast Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, and portions of North Dakota and Wyoming.
8-week change map for the U.S. Drought Monitor, showing where drought has improved (green to blue), is unchanged (gray), or worsened (yellow to brown) since January 24, 2022. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Figure 2. 60-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation (January 22–March 22, 2023) 

Near- to above-normal precipitation helped improve drought conditions in much of the Missouri River Basin. However, most of Kansas and Nebraska had below-normal precipitation over the past 60 days.
Percent of normal precipitation across the Missouri River Basin from January 22–March 22, 2023. The orange to deep red colors indicate areas that were below normal for the time period, whereas green to purple areas were above normal. Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center ACIS Climate Maps.

Figure 3. Departure from Average Snowfall (inches) (October 1, 2022–March 23, 2023)

Many areas within the Missouri River Basin have received near- to above-normal snowfall from October 1 to March 23.
Departure from normal accumulated snowfall in inches across the Missouri River Basin from October 1, 2022–March 23, 2023. The yellow to orange colors indicate areas that were below normal for the time period, whereas green and blue areas represent areas that were above normal. Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center cli-MATE Maps.

Figure 4. Modeled Snow Depth as of March 24, 2023 

Parts of the Northern Plains (Minnesota, North Dakota, northern and eastern South Dakota, northeastern Montana) have modeled snow depth ranging from 4 to 30+ inches as of March 24.
Modeled snow depth across the Northern Plains as of March 24, 2023 in inches and centimeters. Source: NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, National Snow Analyses.

Drought Impacts

  • The most intense areas of drought in Kansas and Nebraska are feeling ongoing impacts. Further north, drought impacts are more limited this time of year, as much of the ground is still frozen. The frozen ground limits drought recovery as the winter precipitation cannot soak into the ground. 
  • Streamflow is below normal across much of Kansas and southern Nebraska (Figure 5). Streams are likely lower in the northern states as well, but streamgages are not operating currently because of frozen conditions.
  • Drought is also impacting groundwater levels across south central and western Kansas. The groundwater level fell by nearly three feet near Garden City, Liberal, and Ulysses, Kansas in January alone. 
  • A Condition Monitoring Observer Report (CMOR) from northern South Dakota (Ziebach County) on March 21 indicates that a widespread area has very low stock ponds, dry streambeds despite melting snow, and low enough water levels that cattle and wild animals can easily cross. 
  • February 2023 runoff into the Missouri River above Sioux City remains below normal at only 86% of average, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Despite the low runoff totals and ongoing water conservation measures, enough water remains in the river for water supply needs.
  • Kansas’ hard red wheat has struggled amid dry conditions this winter. As of mid-February, the crop was dormant and some wheat in western Kansas had not yet germinated for lack of moisture. According to the USDA, 50% of winter wheat in Kansas is rated as poor to very poor.
  • Wind erosion and dust storms have been an issue in some areas. Western Kansas has reported issues with dust storms over the last couple of months, which causes air quality issues (Figure 6). In Blaine County, Montana, a CMOR report indicates that grasshopper infestation to native pasture and the lack of moisture is causing wind erosion.
  • Poor pasture conditions and limited feed is reported in Kansas and Montana. In western Kansas, supplemental feed is required to maintain livestock condition, and many are struggling to find feed, with some electing to sell some animals to have fewer to feed. In Blaine County, Montana, grazing must be supplemented and water hauled for livestock. On the positive side, rangelands likely saw some recovery in the areas where drought conditions did improve this winter.

Figure 5. Real-Time Streamflow Percentiles for March 23, 2023

Streamflow is below normal across much of Kansas and southern Nebraska, as of March 23.
This map depicts streamflow conditions at U.S. Geological Survey stream gages compared to the historical streamflow conditions for March 23, 2023. Source: USGS Daily Streamflow Conditions and Drought.gov Water Supply page.

Figure 6. Dust Storm near Baca County (Colorado) and Morton County (Kansas) in Early March 2023

Photo of a dust storm coming from the west near Baca County, Colorado and Morton County, Kansas. Western Kansas has reported issues with dust storms over the last couple of months, which causes air quality issues.
Dust storm coming from the west near Baca County, Colorado and Morton County, Kansas (posted on March 8, 2023). Source: CMOR Reporter “SWKansasdustbowl”.

Outlook and Potential Impacts

  • The 8–14 day outlook (March 31–April 6, 2023) shows the chance for below-normal precipitation in the central portion of the Missouri River Basin with near-normal conditions expected elsewhere (Figure 7). 
  • The monthly (April 2023) and seasonal (April–June 2023) precipitation outlooks show equal chances over the Basin for near-, below-, or above-normal precipitation. Because spring and early summer is typically the wettest time of the year for the region, the seasonal drought outlook shows the chance for improved drought conditions, with the possibility for drought removal, in some areas (Figure 8). However, drought is expected to persist in some of the worst areas in the Basin—western Kansas and eastern Colorado.
  • The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2023 calendar year runoff forecast above Sioux City is for 84% of average, which is based on current soil moisture conditions, plains and mountain snowpack, and long-term precipitation and temperature outlooks.
  • With limited soil moisture across many areas in the Basin at the end of fall 2022, there are concerns that despite the above-normal winter rainfall and snowfall in some areas, soils will still be dry going into the 2023 growing season, or could quickly reverse from moist to dry rapidly with increased heat and vegetation growth.

Figure 7. 8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook (Valid March 31–April 6, 2023)

From March 31 to April 6, odds favor below-normal precipitation for Nebraska, Kansas, northern and eastern Colorado, eastern Wyoming, and southern South Dakota.
The 8–14 day precipitation outlook for March 31–April 6, 2023 from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The green shades represent areas with a slightly greater chance for above-normal precipitation, gray areas represent near-normal precipitation, and brown shades represent areas with a slightly greater chance for below-normal precipitation. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Figure 8. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for March 16–June 30, 2023

For the period of March 16 to June 30, drought is projected to improve or be removed over much of the Missouri River Basin region.
Seasonal drought outlook for March 16-June 30, 2023, showing whether drought is projected to persist (brown), improve but remain (tan), develop (yellow), or be removed (green).  Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

For More Information

Prepared By

Molly Woloszyn
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES/CU Boulder

Doug Kluck
NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information

Dannele Peck & Dennis Todey
USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub and Midwest Climate Hub

Kevin Low
NOAA/Missouri Basin River Forecast Center

Audra Bruschi
NOAA/National Weather Service Central Region

Rezaul Mahmood & Gannon Rush
High Plains Regional Climate Center

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Missouri River Basin based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.